發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-04 22:24

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：二三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值與勞動(dòng)力需求關(guān)系及預(yù)測(cè)研究　出處：《東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 第二產(chǎn)業(yè) 第三產(chǎn)業(yè) 勞動(dòng)力需求 回歸分析 BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò) 組合預(yù)測(cè)

【摘要】：改革開放30多年以來，我國各方面取得了輝煌的成就。國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）保持快速增長趨勢(shì)。我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)隨著改革開放、經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展也隨之發(fā)生了相應(yīng)的變化。但是我國的當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與人口資源、環(huán)境并不是很協(xié)調(diào)，勞動(dòng)力資源配置在經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治上都具有極其重要的位置。勞動(dòng)力資源配置的方式、機(jī)制不僅影響勞動(dòng)力自身利用效率，而且還對(duì)整個(gè)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)作的效率產(chǎn)生影響，它是經(jīng)濟(jì)過程中的一個(gè)基本要素。在當(dāng)今社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)中，經(jīng)濟(jì)要快速健康的發(fā)展，勞動(dòng)力資源的配置顯得格外的重要。在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展的同時(shí)帶動(dòng)了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)息息相關(guān)，隨之帶動(dòng)了勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整。我國是個(gè)農(nóng)業(yè)大國，由此產(chǎn)生的大批量勞動(dòng)力的轉(zhuǎn)移將對(duì)我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)騰飛產(chǎn)生巨大的挑戰(zhàn)，探討、分析中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)勞動(dòng)力配置的影響具有實(shí)際的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先采用定量分析的方法，分析了我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)及其勞動(dòng)力需求現(xiàn)狀。收集了我國從1981年至2010年近三十年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值與就業(yè)人員數(shù)據(jù)，用于定量研究。主要方法用到了相關(guān)分析、回歸分析、BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)及其組合預(yù)測(cè)等數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)等理論知識(shí)。以Maltlab、SPSS17.0等為運(yùn)算工具。本文主要對(duì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)問題做了分析，并且根據(jù)研究需要，提出了適合本研究的基于改進(jìn)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)模型；用一元回歸進(jìn)行了第二三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值與勞動(dòng)力需求的相關(guān)性分析，在得出二三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值與勞動(dòng)力需求回歸方程，并通過假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)；將改進(jìn)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)及其以誤差絕對(duì)值最小為目標(biāo)的組合預(yù)測(cè)應(yīng)用于第二三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值的預(yù)測(cè)，得出基于改進(jìn)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)模型優(yōu)于組合預(yù)測(cè)模型，以改進(jìn)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)模型得到的產(chǎn)值代入回歸分析得出的回歸方程，預(yù)測(cè)出勞動(dòng)力需求量。 本文總共分為六大章節(jié)：第一章是引言部分，主要介紹了本文研究的背景，國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀及其本文所用到的方法和本文所研究的主要內(nèi)容以及技術(shù)路線圖；第二章為理論概念界定和本文研究的理論基礎(chǔ)介紹，概念界定部分主要介紹了產(chǎn)業(yè)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)值、勞動(dòng)力、勞動(dòng)力需求、預(yù)測(cè)、預(yù)測(cè)分類等概念，，回歸分析、神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的相關(guān)概念及其模型以及組合預(yù)測(cè)模型；第三章主要在基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)問題分析的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了適合本研究的基于改進(jìn)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)模型，并對(duì)其模型進(jìn)行了闡述；第四章，在相關(guān)性分析基礎(chǔ)上，做了回歸分析，利用對(duì)數(shù)回歸模型，得出二三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值與勞動(dòng)力需求的數(shù)學(xué)回歸模型，并通過了假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)；第五章分為產(chǎn)值預(yù)測(cè)和勞動(dòng)力需求兩部分，產(chǎn)值預(yù)測(cè)又分為基于改進(jìn)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)與組合預(yù)測(cè)兩個(gè)模型，在產(chǎn)值預(yù)測(cè)的基礎(chǔ)上，預(yù)測(cè)出勞動(dòng)力需求量；第六章為本文的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:Since 30 years of reform and opening up, the various aspects of our country has made brilliant achievements. The gross domestic product (GDP) to maintain a rapid growth trend. The industrial structure and employment structure in our country with the reform and opening up, economic development has changed accordingly. But China's contemporary economic development and population, resources, environment and not well, the allocation of labor resources has the extremely important position in economy and politics. The allocation of labor resources, the mechanism not only affects labor efficiency, but also affect the entire social and economic operation of the production efficiency, it is one of the basic elements of the economic process. In today's socialist market economy. The rapid and healthy development, the allocation of labor resources is particularly important. In the rapid development of China's economy and promote the adjustment of industrial structure, industrial structure and employment structure information Relevant information, will be driven by the adjustment of the labor structure. China is a large agricultural country, resulting in the transfer of large quantities of labor will have a huge challenge to the economy of our country to explore the practical significance, analysis of the impact of Chinese industrial structure adjustment on labor force allocation with the actual.
This paper adopts the method of quantitative analysis, analyzes the current situation of China's industrial structure and labor demand. Collection of China's GDP and employment data from 1981 to 2010 for nearly thirty years, for the quantitative study. The main methods used in the correlation analysis, regression analysis, BP neural network and its combination forecasting and mathematical statistics the neural network theory. Based on Maltlab, SPSS17.0 as the calculation tool. This paper mainly analyzes the prediction problem of standard BP neural network, time series, and according to the research needs, the paper proposes the research based on BP neural network time series forecasting model of improved; analyzed the relativity of the two or three industrial output and labor demand by regression, the two or three industry output value and labor demand regression equation, and through hypothesis test; the improved BP neural network time series In order to forecast and forecast error minimum absolute value of combination forecasting is applied in the two or three industrial output, the BP neural network time series forecasting model of improved superior combination forecasting model based on regression equation regression analysis with BP neural network time series forecasting value into the model improved the forecast, labor demand.
This paper is divided into six chapters: the first chapter is the introduction part, mainly introduces the background, main contents and the status quo and the method used by the domestic and foreign research institute and technology roadmap; the second chapter is theoretical basis for defining the concept and the introduction part mainly introduces the definition, industry, industrial structure, output, labor, labor demand, forecast, forecast classification concepts, regression analysis, neural network model and its related concepts and combination forecasting model; in the third chapter, based on the BP neural network time series prediction problem based on the analysis, the paper proposes the research on the prediction model of BP neural network time series based on the improved, and the models were discussed; the fourth chapter, the correlation analysis based on the regression analysis, using the logarithmic regression model, the Two or three industrial output and labor demand mathematical regression model, and through the hypothesis test; the fifth chapter is divided into two parts to forecast the output value and labor demand, output prediction is divided into BP neural network time series prediction combined with improved prediction based on two models based on output forecast, forecast of labor demand; the sixth chapter is the conclusion of this paper.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F124.1;F249.21

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