本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于省市級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)的豫魯全要素生產(chǎn)率測(cè)算與比較　出處：《河南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 全要素生產(chǎn)率 索洛殘差法 隨機(jī)前沿分析 豫魯兩省

【摘要】：增長(zhǎng)一直是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)關(guān)注的核心領(lǐng)域，全要素生產(chǎn)率作為衡量地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量的重要指標(biāo)，自二戰(zhàn)以后逐漸成為研究的焦點(diǎn)。在改革開放的大潮中，山東省和河南省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都很迅速，但它們的增長(zhǎng)模式能否持續(xù)是一個(gè)值得考慮的問題。同時(shí)，兩省各地市的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也具有不同的特征，究竟哪些因素推動(dòng)了地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，又有哪些因素是增長(zhǎng)的制約因素，這是本文所關(guān)注的主要問題。 在簡(jiǎn)要回顧經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論和全要素生產(chǎn)率相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上，以盧卡斯模型為基準(zhǔn)加以擴(kuò)展形成本文的分析框架，以檢驗(yàn)人力資本的溢出效應(yīng)以及政府支出、城市化、對(duì)外貿(mào)易等因素對(duì)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響�；趦墒〗y(tǒng)計(jì)資料，從省級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)和地市級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)出發(fā)，對(duì)各地區(qū)的產(chǎn)出和投入要素進(jìn)行了比較精確的估算。在此基礎(chǔ)上，分別采用基于省級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)的索洛殘差法和地市級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)的超越對(duì)數(shù)隨機(jī)前沿模型對(duì)各地區(qū)的全要素生產(chǎn)率進(jìn)行測(cè)算，利用回歸分析的結(jié)果對(duì)不同因素對(duì)全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行分析，并將各地市的全要素生產(chǎn)率進(jìn)一步分解為技術(shù)進(jìn)步、技術(shù)效率變化和規(guī)模效率變化。 本文實(shí)證研究結(jié)果表明： 兩省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有較強(qiáng)的相似性。改革開放以來，兩省的年均經(jīng)濟(jì)增速都高于全國(guó)水平，且波動(dòng)趨勢(shì)大體相同。投資在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中起到了最為重要的作用，勞動(dòng)數(shù)量的相對(duì)貢獻(xiàn)呈下降趨勢(shì)，而勞動(dòng)質(zhì)量提高的貢獻(xiàn)先升后降，全要素生產(chǎn)率的貢獻(xiàn)依然偏低。具體而言，1978-2011年間，山東省和河南省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中平均有60%以上由資本的增加拉動(dòng)，且這一比重呈逐年上升趨勢(shì)，這表明兩省都處于資本加速積累的時(shí)期。勞動(dòng)數(shù)量增加的貢獻(xiàn)在10%左右，而勞動(dòng)質(zhì)量提高的直接貢獻(xiàn)約為6%。人力資本存在正的溢出效應(yīng)，但它對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)呈下降趨勢(shì)�？鄢肆Y本的直接貢獻(xiàn)后，兩省的全要素生產(chǎn)率年均增長(zhǎng)率都在3%左右。 兩省對(duì)比來看，山東省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量高于河南省。從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度來看，山東省的增速更快，，趨勢(shì)更加平穩(wěn)，河南省則更易受到經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的影響。從資本積累速度來看，山東省的資本增長(zhǎng)率比較均衡，各年的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為2.86，三個(gè)時(shí)期的年均資本增長(zhǎng)率分別為11.7%、13.7%和15.8%；河南省則波動(dòng)幅度較大，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為4.39，三個(gè)時(shí)期的年均資本增長(zhǎng)率分別為9.4%、11.7%和16.8%。從綜合生產(chǎn)效率來看，2000-2011年的地市數(shù)據(jù)分析表明，山東省的規(guī)模效率和技術(shù)效率均高于河南省，雖然同樣呈下降趨勢(shì)，但河南省的下降速度更為明顯。因此，河南省的要素產(chǎn)出效率遠(yuǎn)低于山東省，且差距還在拉大。以資本為例，雖然2000-2011年兩省的資本增長(zhǎng)率均在20%左右，但它只拉動(dòng)了河南省產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)的6.27%，而對(duì)山東省的貢獻(xiàn)則高達(dá)9.04%。 從全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的影響因素來看，政府財(cái)政支出和金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款余額占GDP的比重與全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng)呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，尤以政府支出的負(fù)效應(yīng)最為顯著。從地市級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)的無效率方程回歸結(jié)果來看，城市化水平、出口和人力資本溢出效應(yīng)均對(duì)全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng)有一定的促進(jìn)作用，而第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)占GDP比重的提高對(duì)全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的作用并不明顯。等級(jí)公路密度的對(duì)數(shù)和公有制就業(yè)比重的顯著性雖然較高，但其系數(shù)與預(yù)期相反，公路密度的系數(shù)為正表明基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不存在正外部性，而公有制就業(yè)的系數(shù)為負(fù)則很可能是它與政府支出比重存在共線性引起的。 地市級(jí)全要素生產(chǎn)率的分解則表明，技術(shù)進(jìn)步是全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的根本動(dòng)力，而技術(shù)效率和規(guī)模效率的下降則是全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的主要制約因素。經(jīng)濟(jì)相對(duì)落后的地區(qū)往往擁有更快的技術(shù)進(jìn)步速度，從這個(gè)意義上講，區(qū)域間的技術(shù)溢出是推動(dòng)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)趨同的根本推動(dòng)力。樣本期內(nèi)各地區(qū)的技術(shù)效率和規(guī)模效率均呈下降的趨勢(shì)，其中經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的效率水平較高且下降幅度較小，而相對(duì)落后地市的下降速度更為明顯，技術(shù)效率的下降與這些地區(qū)政府財(cái)政支出比重的大幅度上升有直接關(guān)聯(lián)。
[Abstract]:Growth is always the core areas of economics, total factor productivity as an important indicator of the quality of economic growth in the region, since World War II has gradually become the focus of research. In the tide of reform and opening up, Shandong province and Henan Province, the economic growth is very fast, but the sustainability of their growth model is a question worth considering at the same time, around the city of two province economic growth also has different characteristics, what factors promote the regional economic growth, and what factors are restricting factors of growth, which is the main concern in this paper.
Based on a brief review of total factor productivity and the related research on the theory of economic growth, the analysis framework by Lucas model as a benchmark to extend the spillover effect of human capital, to test and government spending, city, foreign trade and other factors impact on the regional economic growth. Two, based on the statistical data, starting from the provincial data and the data of input and output factors of each region were estimated accurately. On this basis, using the provincial data based on Translog Solow residual method and the data with the frontier model to estimate the total factor productivity of each region, were analyzed by regression analysis results of different factors on the whole the contribution of TFP growth, and the total factor productivity around the city is further decomposed into technological progress, technical efficiency change and scale efficiency Change.
The results of the empirical study show that:
Have a strong similarity in two provinces in economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, the province's two annual economic growth rate is higher than the national level, and the fluctuation trend is largely the same. Investment in economic growth plays the most important role. The relative contribution of labor quantity decreased, and improve the quality of labor contribution first rose after the fall, the contribution of TFP is still low. Specifically, 1978-2011 years, Shandong province and Henan Province, the economic growth in an average of more than 60% of the capital increase by pulling, and the proportion is rising year by year, which indicates that the two provinces are in the stage of accelerating capital accumulation. The increase in the number of labor contribution in 10% so, while the direct contribution to improve the quality of labor is about existence of positive spillover effects of 6%. of human capital, but it showed a downward trend to economic growth. After deducting the direct contribution of human capital, the two provincial total factor students The average annual growth rate of the yield is about 3%.
Two, by contrast, the quality of economic growth in Shandong province is higher than that of Henan province. Judging from the economic growth rate of Shandong province faster, more stable trend, Henan province is more vulnerable to economic fluctuations. From the rate of capital accumulation, Shandong Province, the growth rate of capital is relatively balanced, the standard deviation is 2.86 the three period, average annual growth rate of capital was 11.7%, 13.7% and 15.8%; Henan province is fluctuating, the standard deviation is 4.39, three times the average annual growth rate of capital was 9.4%, 11.7% and 16.8%. from the comprehensive production efficiency, city 2000-2011 data analysis shows that the scale efficiency and technical efficiency Shandong province is higher than that of Henan Province, although also decreased, but the rate of decline in Henan province is more obvious. Therefore, the Henan province of the output efficiency is much lower than that of Shandong Province, and the gap is widening. In capital cases, though However, the capital growth rate of two provinces in 2000-2011 years was around 20%, but it only promoted the output growth of 6.27% in Henan Province, while the contribution to Shandong province was up to 9.04%..
Influence factors of total factor productivity growth from the point of view, government expenditure and financial institutions loans accounted for the proportion of GDP and TFP growth is negatively correlated, especially the negative effect of government spending is the most significant. The regression results the inefficient data, city level, have a certain role in promoting export and human capital spillover effects on TFP growth, while the second industry and the third industry accounted for the proportion of GDP to improve the total factor productivity growth is not obvious. The road density and the logarithm of male is significant for the proportion of employment although higher, but the coefficient is contrary to expectations, the highway density coefficient the infrastructure does not exist positive externalities is that, while public ownership is negative coefficient of employment is likely to be with the proportion of government expenditure caused by multicollinearity.
The decomposition of TFP indicates that technological progress is the fundamental driving force of the total factor productivity growth, and the decline in technical efficiency and scale efficiency is the main factors restricting the TFP growth. The economy is relatively backward areas tend to have faster in speed, in this sense, technology spillover between regions is the fundamental driving force to promote regional economic convergence. The sample period technical efficiency and scale efficiency were decreased, the economically developed areas and higher efficiency levels decreased slightly, and relatively backward, falling speed is more obvious, the decline of technical efficiency and the government fiscal expenditure proportion of large area increases are directly related.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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