【摘要】：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的變化影響企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施效果,本文構(gòu)建以狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)換強(qiáng)度為影響因素的企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整優(yōu)化決策模型.運(yùn)用隨機(jī)動(dòng)態(tài)最優(yōu)控制方法,得到兩狀態(tài)下企業(yè)價(jià)值解析解,企業(yè)當(dāng)前價(jià)值、增長(zhǎng)期權(quán)和托賓Q分析解,以及相應(yīng)的最優(yōu)投資策略.理論研究和數(shù)值模擬表明:戰(zhàn)略狀態(tài)不影響企業(yè)最優(yōu)戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整時(shí)機(jī),但影響最優(yōu)投資支出,高戰(zhàn)略水平時(shí),企業(yè)生產(chǎn)率更高,為達(dá)到并維持企業(yè)最優(yōu)資本結(jié)構(gòu),企業(yè)的投資支出增多;狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)換強(qiáng)度影響企業(yè)最優(yōu)戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整時(shí)機(jī)、戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整瞬時(shí)的投資支出、托賓Q值和增長(zhǎng)期權(quán)-企業(yè)價(jià)值比值;特別地,相對(duì)戰(zhàn)略水平閾值是轉(zhuǎn)換概率的單調(diào)遞增函數(shù),轉(zhuǎn)換概率越大,相對(duì)戰(zhàn)略水平閾值越大,企業(yè)保持當(dāng)前戰(zhàn)略的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng).總之,考慮狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)換能夠改善未考慮狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)換時(shí)制定的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整決策和相應(yīng)投資策略.
[Abstract]:The change of macro-economy affects the effect of enterprise strategy implementation. In this paper, the optimal decision-making model of enterprise strategy adjustment based on the intensity of state transition is established. By using the stochastic dynamic optimal control method, the analytical solution of the enterprise value, the current value of the enterprise, the growth option and Tobin Q analysis solution, and the corresponding optimal investment strategy are obtained. Theoretical research and numerical simulation show that the strategic state does not affect the optimal strategic adjustment opportunity, but affects the optimal investment expenditure. When the strategic level is high, the productivity of the enterprise is higher, in order to achieve and maintain the optimal capital structure of the enterprise, The investment expenditure of enterprises increases; The intensity of state transition affects the optimal timing of strategic adjustment, instantaneous investment expenditure, Tobin Q value and growth option-enterprise value ratio. In particular, the threshold of relative strategic level is a monotone increasing function of transition probability. The larger the conversion probability is, the greater the threshold of relative strategic level is, and the longer the time for enterprises to maintain the current strategy. In a word, considering the state transition can improve the strategic adjustment decision and the corresponding investment strategy when the state transition is not considered.
【作者單位】： 湖南大學(xué)工商管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金創(chuàng)新研究群體(71521061);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(71571065) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)青年基金(71501065) 國(guó)家社科基金(12CGL023)~~
【分類號(hào)】：F275

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