【摘要】：并購重組是企業(yè)實(shí)施外延擴(kuò)張戰(zhàn)略、增強(qiáng)核心競爭力、提振公司業(yè)績的主要手段之一。作為并購方案的核心交易條款,業(yè)績承諾有助于降低交易雙方的信息不對稱,被越來越多的并購交易所采用。但現(xiàn)實(shí)中承諾業(yè)績不達(dá)標(biāo)的現(xiàn)象屢見不鮮,并直接影響上市公司的總體業(yè)績和股價(jià)波動(dòng),損害了中小投資者利益。那么,在此之前的預(yù)先研判就顯得尤為重要。賣方分析師作為證券市場的信息中介,通過盈余預(yù)測為投資者提供關(guān)于企業(yè)價(jià)值的信息,影響其投資決策和資本市場的資源配置。對重大并購公司的研究過程中,分析師如何解讀業(yè)績承諾信息必然在很大程度上影響其盈余預(yù)測、估值模型和投資建議。本文以2011-2015年我國A股市場發(fā)生的重大重組事件為樣本,運(yùn)用實(shí)證研究方法,較為系統(tǒng)地研究了重大資產(chǎn)重組中的業(yè)績承諾對分析師預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性的影響,上市公司股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)對這一關(guān)系的調(diào)節(jié)作用,以及分析師對業(yè)績承諾的主動(dòng)識(shí)別能力對其預(yù)測質(zhì)量的影響。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),與沒有業(yè)績承諾的重組樣本相比,有業(yè)績承諾的情形下,分析師的盈余預(yù)測更準(zhǔn)確。在有業(yè)績承諾的樣本中,業(yè)績承諾方式和補(bǔ)償方式也會(huì)對分析師預(yù)測產(chǎn)生顯著影響:雙向?qū)�的業(yè)績承諾和現(xiàn)金補(bǔ)償方式更能提升分析師預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性。進(jìn)一步的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),公司的股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)對業(yè)績承諾與分析師預(yù)測的相關(guān)性起到調(diào)節(jié)作用,良好的股權(quán)制衡能夠顯著提升業(yè)績承諾對分析師預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性的正向影響,這種結(jié)果在關(guān)聯(lián)交易的樣本中更加顯著。本文還從分析師自身的視角,研究分析師對業(yè)績承諾的信任度對其預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性的影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),如果分析師在業(yè)績承諾披露后進(jìn)行較大的盈余預(yù)測修正,其預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確性不僅沒有提升,反而有所降低,這或許和分析師過度信賴導(dǎo)致的樂觀性偏差有關(guān)。本文首次將業(yè)績承諾與分析師預(yù)測的關(guān)系納入同一個(gè)框架內(nèi)進(jìn)行研究,為分析師預(yù)測行為的影響機(jī)制提供了新的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù),而且有助于監(jiān)管部門了解業(yè)績承諾制度對資本市場參與者的現(xiàn)實(shí)影響,并對中小投資者利益保護(hù)有一定的啟示意義。
[Abstract]:M & A is one of the main means for enterprises to implement extension expansion strategy, strengthen core competitiveness and boost corporate performance. As the core trading clause of M & A schemes, performance commitment helps to reduce the information asymmetry between the two parties and is adopted by more and more M & A exchanges. However, it is common to promise that the performance is not up to the standard in reality, which directly affects the overall performance and stock price fluctuation of listed companies, and damages the interests of small and medium-sized investors. In that case, it is particularly important to study in advance. As the information intermediary of the securities market, the seller's analyst provides investors with information on the enterprise's value through earnings forecasting, which affects their investment decision and the resource allocation of the capital market. How analysts interpret performance commitments in the course of a study of major mergers and acquisitions is bound to have a significant impact on earnings forecasts, valuation models and investment advice. Taking the major restructuring events in China's A-share market from 2011-2015 as a sample and using empirical research methods, this paper systematically studies the impact of performance commitments in major asset restructuring on the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. The influence of the equity structure of listed companies on this relationship and the ability of analysts to identify their performance commitments on the quality of their forecasts. The study found that analysts' earnings forecasts were more accurate with performance commitments than with a restructuring sample without performance commitments. In a sample of performance commitments, performance commitment and compensation also have a significant impact on analysts' forecasts: a two-way bet on performance commitments and cash compensation is more likely to improve the accuracy of analysts' forecasts. Further research found that the equity structure of the company can regulate the correlation between the performance commitment and the analyst forecast, and the good equity balance can significantly improve the positive impact of the performance commitment on the accuracy of the analyst forecast. This result is more significant in the sample of related party transactions. From the perspective of the analysts themselves, this paper also studies the impact of the confidence in the performance commitment on the accuracy of their forecasts. The study found that if analysts made larger earnings forecast revisions after their earnings commitments were disclosed, the accuracy of their forecasts would not have improved, but had been reduced, perhaps because of the bias of optimism caused by analysts' over-reliance. For the first time, the relationship between the performance commitment and the analyst forecast is studied in the same framework, which provides new empirical evidence for the influence mechanism of the analyst's forecast behavior. Moreover, it is helpful for regulators to understand the actual impact of performance commitment system on capital market participants, and has certain enlightenment significance for the protection of the interests of small and medium-sized investors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51
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本文編號(hào)：2234908