本文選題：財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制 + 重大錯(cuò)報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)��； 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國政府于2008年6月發(fā)布了《企業(yè)內(nèi)部控制基本規(guī)范》,并于2010年發(fā)布配套指引,確立了我國企業(yè)內(nèi)部控制有效性的評價(jià)和財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制的審計(jì)制度。目前國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制的研究主要集中于在內(nèi)控缺陷與有效性之間的關(guān)系,同時(shí)對內(nèi)控缺陷披露的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果也有深入探討,但對財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制有效性的定量分析研究較少。同時(shí)現(xiàn)有內(nèi)部控制有效性往往受制于成本與時(shí)間,其常見評估方法具有一定滯后性。本文回顧了財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制的發(fā)展過程,從重大錯(cuò)報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估為出發(fā)點(diǎn),通過財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)與財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警,財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)與重大錯(cuò)報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的研究,選取多個(gè)的維度指標(biāo)并加以選擇具有代表性的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),建立合理有效模型。鑒于我國財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制還處于發(fā)展初期,本文從重大錯(cuò)報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概念出發(fā)選取財(cái)務(wù)審計(jì)報(bào)告意見作為財(cái)務(wù)內(nèi)部控制是否有效分組依據(jù)。若財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告為非標(biāo)意見則意味著存在重大錯(cuò)報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),而此類重大錯(cuò)報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)企業(yè)則意味著該公司的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制很可能失效,并以此為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)劃分成兩個(gè)樣本組。本文以2013-2015年中國在滬深上市公司為樣本,根據(jù)被出具的審計(jì)意見,選取被出具標(biāo)準(zhǔn)意見與出具非標(biāo)意見的公司,進(jìn)行1:4的配比,最后得到345家樣本。依據(jù)文獻(xiàn)研究選取財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)作為模型研究的自變量,選擇Logit模型作為研究的預(yù)測模型。首先,檢驗(yàn)前述指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)是否達(dá)到正態(tài)分布,驗(yàn)證兩樣本組間財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的變動(dòng)性、差分變量存在顯著性差別,因此可利用財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)初步辨別財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制是否有效;然后將符合條件指標(biāo)考慮共線性后進(jìn)行篩選,對篩選后指標(biāo)進(jìn)行條件邏輯回歸;最后本文運(yùn)用多變量分析的結(jié)果,挑選符合條件的指標(biāo)建立預(yù)測模型,因?yàn)闂l件邏輯模型缺乏應(yīng)用模型,為此模擬條件邏輯模型構(gòu)建一般邏輯回歸模型并進(jìn)行分割點(diǎn)確定。通過研究得出以下結(jié)論:財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告為非標(biāo)意見則意味著存在重大錯(cuò)報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),而此類重大錯(cuò)報(bào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)企業(yè)則意味著該公司的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制很可能失效,而此類公司與其他企業(yè)間對比,財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的波動(dòng)性、差分變量均存在顯著性差別,因此利用此類差異可以有效識別財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制有效性。本文的預(yù)測模型對研究樣本有較好的擬合優(yōu)度,在90%的保證度下,P值在低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有效區(qū)[0,0.5]時(shí),判斷準(zhǔn)確率為90.75%;在P值在(0.5,0.7)區(qū)間時(shí)為中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn);P值在[0.7,1]區(qū)間時(shí),準(zhǔn)確率為90.00%。綜上所述,本文驗(yàn)證上市公司財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的波動(dòng)性與財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制有效性間相關(guān)性,建立模型為各利益相關(guān)方提供對財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制有效性便捷的初步識別方法,在現(xiàn)有財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告內(nèi)部控制評價(jià)方法基礎(chǔ)上提供新的方法與思路。
[Abstract]:In June, 2008, our government issued the basic norms of Enterprise Internal Control, and in 2010 issued a complete set of guidelines, which established the evaluation of the effectiveness of internal control and the audit system of the internal control of financial reports in our country. At present, scholars at home and abroad mainly focus on the relationship between the internal control defects and the effectiveness of the internal control of financial reports, at the same time, the economic consequences of the disclosure of internal control defects are also deeply discussed. However, the quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of internal control of financial reports is less. At the same time, the effectiveness of existing internal control is often limited by cost and time. This paper reviews the development process of internal control of financial reports, starting from the risk assessment of material misstatement, through the study of financial indicators and financial early warning, financial indicators and risk assessment of material misstatement. The reasonable and effective model is established by selecting several dimension indexes and selecting representative financial indexes. In view of the fact that the internal control of financial report is still in the early stage of development, this paper selects the opinion of financial audit report as the effective grouping basis of financial internal control from the concept of material misstatement risk. If the financial report is not a standard opinion, it means that there is a risk of material misstatement, and this kind of material misstatement risk enterprise means that the internal control of the financial report of the company is likely to fail, and it can be divided into two groups according to this standard. This paper takes Chinese listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2013 to 2015 as samples. According to the audit opinions issued by them, the companies that are issued standard opinions and non-standard opinions are selected for 1:4 matching, and 345 samples are obtained. According to the literature study, the financial index is chosen as the independent variable of the model research, and the Logit model is chosen as the prediction model. First of all, test whether the above-mentioned index data reach normal distribution, verify the variability of financial indicators between the two groups, there are significant differences between the difference variables, so we can use the financial indicators to identify whether the internal control of financial reports is effective or not. Then, after the collinearity is considered, the conditional logic regression is carried out. Finally, the prediction model is established by selecting the suitable indexes by using the results of multivariate analysis. Because the conditional logic model lacks the application model, the general logic regression model is constructed and the segmentation point is determined for simulating the conditional logic model. The following conclusion is drawn from the study: the fact that the financial statement is non-standard means that there is a risk of material misstatement, and that such material misstatement means that the internal control of the company's financial report is likely to fail. Compared with other firms, there are significant differences in the volatility and differential variables of financial indicators between these companies and other firms. Therefore, the effectiveness of internal control of financial reports can be effectively identified by using these differences. The prediction model in this paper has a good goodness of fit for the study sample. At 90% assurance, the accuracy of P value is 90.75 in the low risk effective region [00.5], and the accuracy rate is 90.005 when P value is in the range of 0.50.7) and the middle risk P value is in the interval of [0.7 ~ (1)]. To sum up, this paper verifies the correlation between the volatility of financial indicators and the effectiveness of internal control of financial reports, and establishes a model for stakeholders to provide a preliminary identification method for the effectiveness of internal control of financial reports. On the basis of the existing internal control evaluation methods of financial reports, new methods and ideas are provided.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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