本文選題：關(guān)鍵鏈緩沖管理　切入點(diǎn)：項(xiàng)目控制　出處：《華中科技大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)環(huán)境快速變化且競(jìng)爭(zhēng)愈發(fā)激烈,項(xiàng)目所面臨的不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不斷增大,同時(shí)項(xiàng)目本身的結(jié)構(gòu)和規(guī)�？谮厪�(fù)雜,對(duì)稀缺資源的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)逐漸加劇,導(dǎo)致越來(lái)越多的項(xiàng)目難以按期完工,傳統(tǒng)的項(xiàng)目管理方法比如關(guān)鍵鏈路徑法、計(jì)劃評(píng)審技術(shù)等,已經(jīng)越來(lái)越難以應(yīng)對(duì)現(xiàn)代項(xiàng)目面臨的高要求和復(fù)雜多變的執(zhí)行環(huán)境。關(guān)鍵鏈緩沖管理方法CC/BM應(yīng)運(yùn)而生,迅速成為項(xiàng)目管理領(lǐng)域理論研究的熱點(diǎn),同時(shí)在實(shí)踐中比如生產(chǎn)、制造及服務(wù)等行業(yè)得到了成功應(yīng)用。緩沖是其中的重要概念,通過(guò)插入集中的時(shí)間緩沖以構(gòu)建資源可行的魯棒調(diào)度計(jì)劃,旨在吸收不確定性并聚合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；同時(shí),通過(guò)緩沖監(jiān)控來(lái)實(shí)施進(jìn)度控制,以保證項(xiàng)目按期完工。因此,緩沖的大小估計(jì)和監(jiān)控方法,直接決定著項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃完工期及項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn),是關(guān)鍵鏈緩沖管理技術(shù)運(yùn)用成功的關(guān)鍵。本文綜合應(yīng)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論、項(xiàng)口進(jìn)度管理理論以及魯棒性調(diào)度相關(guān)理論,采用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)、資源流網(wǎng)絡(luò)、Monte Carlo模擬、啟發(fā)式算法等方法,對(duì)基于緩沖管理的項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度控制方法展開(kāi)系統(tǒng)深入的研究,主要工作概述如下：首先,提出了考慮活動(dòng)工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和多資源約束風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的緩沖管理方法。該方法運(yùn)用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)分析關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素、評(píng)估其發(fā)生概率及對(duì)活動(dòng)工期的影響；通過(guò)資源流網(wǎng)絡(luò)評(píng)估資源受限程度,結(jié)合活動(dòng)資源需求強(qiáng)度提出了資源風(fēng)險(xiǎn)系數(shù)計(jì)算方式。綜合以上兩種風(fēng)險(xiǎn),提出合理的緩沖大小計(jì)算方法,并設(shè)計(jì)了一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)執(zhí)行環(huán)境下基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溯源、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞和項(xiàng)目資源流網(wǎng)絡(luò)更新的動(dòng)態(tài)緩沖監(jiān)控模型,以有效應(yīng)對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。通過(guò)算例分析驗(yàn)證了所提緩沖大小計(jì)算方法的實(shí)用性和有效性。然后,針對(duì)現(xiàn)有的緩沖監(jiān)控機(jī)制忽視相關(guān)的活動(dòng)信息、未能充分考慮項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行的動(dòng)態(tài)特征這一問(wèn)題,將一種基于活動(dòng)的進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析法與緩沖監(jiān)控方法結(jié)合起來(lái)。即將前者中的活動(dòng)關(guān)聯(lián)度指標(biāo)引入后者,作為有效觸發(fā)趕工行動(dòng)的決策依據(jù),從而構(gòu)建了一種全方位(項(xiàng)目層-活動(dòng)層)的項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度控制框架。此外,提出兩種關(guān)聯(lián)度監(jiān)控閾值的動(dòng)態(tài)設(shè)置方法,即根據(jù)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)展比例或者緩沖消耗水平動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)整行動(dòng)閾值。模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)證明了集成進(jìn)度控制方法相對(duì)于傳統(tǒng)緩沖監(jiān)控方法的優(yōu)越性,尤其是采用遞減方式設(shè)置關(guān)聯(lián)度監(jiān)控閾值時(shí)效果最好。接著,針對(duì)現(xiàn)有緩沖監(jiān)控方法在指導(dǎo)趕工決策時(shí)都沒(méi)有考慮趕工成本信息這一不足,提出了考慮活動(dòng)趕工成本的項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度控制過(guò)程。為了更好地描述基于關(guān)鍵鏈計(jì)劃的趕工問(wèn)題,我們首先建立了一個(gè)數(shù)學(xué)優(yōu)化模型�？紤]到數(shù)學(xué)優(yōu)化方法的應(yīng)用局限性,繼而提出一種基于Monte Carlo模擬的啟發(fā)式求解方法,通過(guò)衡量項(xiàng)目按時(shí)完工率的改進(jìn)與活動(dòng)所需趕工成本之比,并結(jié)合當(dāng)前緩沖消耗水平,確定趕工候選活動(dòng)集合以及當(dāng)前決策點(diǎn)活動(dòng)的具體趕工時(shí)間長(zhǎng)度。仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示了該方法相對(duì)于相對(duì)緩沖監(jiān)控法在項(xiàng)目時(shí)間及成本績(jī)效方面的優(yōu)越性。最后,從資源可用量約束和反應(yīng)式調(diào)度的角度研究了基于緩沖的項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度控制問(wèn)題,考慮到資源成本和進(jìn)度穩(wěn)定性提出了一個(gè)兩階段進(jìn)度-成本控制系統(tǒng)。在計(jì)劃階段,基于期望資源成本采用模擬優(yōu)化方法計(jì)算常規(guī)資源分配截止時(shí)點(diǎn)；在執(zhí)行階段當(dāng)緩沖消耗超出監(jiān)控閡值時(shí),選取具有最大總成本節(jié)約的活動(dòng),對(duì)其增加緊急資源以使其提前開(kāi)始,以此修復(fù)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度并保持計(jì)劃穩(wěn)定。通過(guò)算例分析闡明所提方法的應(yīng)用步驟,并設(shè)計(jì)大規(guī)模模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)對(duì)影響各種方法績(jī)效的實(shí)驗(yàn)參數(shù)進(jìn)行了分析。
[Abstract]:The rapid change of the market environment and the increasingly fierce competition, the project faced with uncertainty and risk is increasing, at the same time, the structure and size of the project itself and more complex, competition for scarce resources gradually increased, resulting in more and more projects to be completed on schedule, traditional project management methods such as key chain path method, program evaluation and review technique that has become increasingly difficult to meet the high demands of modern project facing the complicated and changeable execution environment. CC/BM critical chain buffer management method came into being, quickly become a hot research field of project management theory, and in practice, such as the production, manufacturing and service industries have been successfully applied. The buffer is one of the important concepts, by inserting the focus the buffer time to construct robust scheduling resource plan feasible, to absorb uncertainty and aggregate risk; at the same time, through buffer monitoring The implementation of schedule control, to ensure that the project be completed. Therefore, the size estimation and monitoring method of buffer, directly determines the project risk and project completion schedule, critical chain buffer management techniques is the key to success. Based on the theory of risk management, project schedule management theory and robust scheduling theory, using Bayesian network, cyber source flow, Monte Carlo simulation, heuristic algorithms, the research of the system of schedule control methods of buffer management based on the project, the main work is summarized as follows: firstly, the buffer management method considering activity duration risk and resource constrained risk. By using the method of key risk factors of Bayesian network technology. To assess the impact of the occurrence probability and the durations of activities; through the resource flow network assessment resource constrained degree, combined with active resource demand The strength of computing resources. The risk coefficient of the above two kinds of risk, proposes the calculation method of buffer size is reasonable, based on Bayesian network risk investigation and design a dynamic execution environment, dynamic buffer monitoring model of risk transfer and project resource flow network update, to effectively deal with the project schedule risk. Through the example analysis shows the practicability and validity of the proposed buffer size calculation method. Then, according to the neglect of the existing mechanism of buffer monitoring activities related to information, failed to give full consideration to the problem of the dynamic characteristics of the execution of the project, a schedule risk analysis method based on activity and buffer monitoring methods together. The association index is the former activity the introduction of the latter, as the trigger action rush decision basis, so as to construct a full range (project layer and active layer) project schedule control box Frame. In addition, the dynamic setting method of two kinds of correlation threshold monitoring, according to the progress of the project or the proportion of buffer consumption level dynamic adjustment action threshold. Simulation experiments show that the integration schedule control method is superior to the traditional buffer monitoring method, especially by decreasing set correlation monitoring threshold was the best. Then, according to the the existing buffer monitoring method in guiding decisions are not considered rush rush this lack of cost information, considering the activities crashing project control process. In order to better describe the problem of critical chain scheduling based on time, we first establish a mathematical optimization model. Considering the application limitation of mathematical optimization method, and then put forward a heuristic method based on Monte Carlo simulation, and through improving the activities needed to catch the measure of project completion rate Engineering cost ratio, combined with the current buffer consumption level, determine the candidate set and the current work activities of the activities of the specific decision points work length of time. The simulation results show that this method is superior to the corresponding buffer monitoring method in the project time and cost performance. Finally, from the resource availability constraints and reactive scheduling perspective study on the problem of the project schedule control buffer based on considering the resource cost and schedule stability proposed a two stage of progress cost control system. In the planning stage, the conventional calculation method of simulation and optimization of resource allocation based on resource cost using the expected cut-off point; in the implementation stage when the buffer consumption beyond the monitoring threshold, it selects the maximum total cost saving activities, increase emergency resource to the early start, in order to repair and maintain the stability of project schedule plan. Through the example The application steps of the proposed method are analyzed, and the experimental parameters that affect the performance of various methods are analyzed in the design of large-scale simulation experiments.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F273

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