本文關(guān)鍵詞： 情景分析法 收益法 周期性公司 現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn) 應(yīng)用　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：面對周期性公司估值這一難題及熱點,收益法是周期性公司估值廣泛使用的方法,但是宏觀經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展有很強的不確定性,這種不確定性會直接或間接的影響到周期性公司收益法估值的結(jié)果,為了使周期性公司收益法估值結(jié)果更客觀合理引入了情景分析法。在研究如何把情景分析法應(yīng)用于周期性公司收益法估值的過程中,本文采用了文獻綜述、理論分析、歸納總結(jié)、概率統(tǒng)計、對比分析、案例分析、圖表分析等方法和手段。目前,國內(nèi)一些學者在用收益法評估周期性公司時采用了情景分析法,但情景分析法在其中往往只作為一種創(chuàng)新點或者案例分析的輔助部分,關(guān)于情景分析法在收益法估值中應(yīng)用的模型種類及詳細步驟等方面的具體研究并不豐富。本文分析周期性公司價值評估方法并分析收益法的適用性和局限性后,歸納情景分析法在周期性公司收益法(以企業(yè)自由現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)法為例)估值中運用的幾種不同思路及其差異,總結(jié)對比出各種思路下的收益法改進模型的特點及適用性;并找出情景分析法應(yīng)用于周期性公司收益法估值過程中情景分析部分的難點問題——周期性公司收益法估值的未來情景構(gòu)建與情景概率確定。進而,詳細闡述周期性公司未來情景構(gòu)建的每一步、情景概率確定的幾種方法等應(yīng)用過程中的關(guān)鍵問題。并以某周期性上市公司為案例,把情景分析法在周期性公司收益法估值中的應(yīng)用過程完整呈現(xiàn)在該案例分析里。通過本文的研究,得到以下幾點結(jié)論:首先,情景分析法和周期性公司收益法估值相結(jié)合的具體應(yīng)用步驟由情景構(gòu)建、情景概率確定、分析情景內(nèi)容、測算每個情景下的收益額、用情景概率對收益法估值模型進行改進并依此計算出周期性公司估值結(jié)果一共五步構(gòu)成;其次,改進周期性公司收益法估值模型分別有,用情景概率分別對收益額加權(quán)和對每種情景下的企業(yè)價值加權(quán)兩種方式(兩階段現(xiàn)金流量折現(xiàn)模型有4種方式);再次,構(gòu)建具體情景需要恰當選擇重要影響因素和關(guān)鍵外在驅(qū)動力量并依據(jù)它們構(gòu)成情景框架,在情景框架下合理設(shè)置情景數(shù)量和劃分情景內(nèi)容;最后,周期性公司收益法估值未來情景的概率可以基于當前經(jīng)濟時點、基于歷史信息、采用概率樹法三種方法來確定。
[Abstract]:In the face of the problem and hot spot of periodic company valuation, income method is widely used in periodic company valuation, but there is strong uncertainty in the development of macro economy. This uncertainty directly or indirectly affects the valuation results of the cyclical corporate income approach, In order to make the valuation result of the periodic company income method more objective and reasonable, this paper introduces the scenario analysis method in the process of studying how to apply the scenario analysis method to the periodic company income method valuation, this paper adopts the literature review, the theory analysis, Inductive summary, probability statistics, comparative analysis, case analysis, chart analysis, and so on. At present, some domestic scholars use scenario analysis method in evaluating periodic companies with income method. But situational analysis is often used only as an innovation or as an auxiliary part of case analysis. The detailed research on the model types and detailed steps used in the valuation of income approach by scenario analysis is not rich. This paper analyzes the method of valuation of periodic companies and analyzes the applicability and limitation of the income approach. Several different ways of thinking and their differences in the valuation of the periodic company income method (taking the discounted free cash flow method of the enterprise as an example) are summarized, and the characteristics and applicability of the improved income method model under the various ideas are compared. And find out the difficult problem of the scenario analysis in the process of applying the scenario analysis method to the valuation of the periodic company income method-the future scenario construction and the scenario probability determination of the periodic company income method valuation. In this paper, the key problems in the application process of the future scenario construction of a periodic company are described in detail, such as each step of constructing the future scenario, several methods of determining the scenario probability, and taking a periodic listed company as an example, The application process of scenario analysis in the periodic company income valuation is presented in this case analysis. Through the study of this paper, the following conclusions are obtained: first, The specific application steps of the combination of scenario analysis and periodic company income valuation are scenario construction, scenario probability determination, analysis of scenario content, and measurement of income under each scenario. Using scenario probability to improve the income valuation model and calculate the periodic company valuation results a total of five steps; secondly, the improved periodic company income valuation model are, There are two ways of weighting the profit amount with scenario probability and the enterprise value under each scenario (there are four ways in the two-stage cash flow discounted model). To construct a specific situation, we need to properly select the important influencing factors and the key external driving forces and form a situational framework according to which the number of scenarios and the content of the scenarios can be reasonably set up under the situational framework. Finally, The probability of the periodic company income method can be determined based on the current economic time point and historical information, and the probability tree method is used to determine the probability tree method.
【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F275

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