本文關(guān)鍵詞： Gompertz 參數(shù)估計(jì) 比較研究 中國電影票房 預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《統(tǒng)計(jì)與信息論壇》2016年09期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：討論改進(jìn)的Gompertz模型兩種參數(shù)估計(jì)方法:三和法和非線性最小二乘估計(jì)法,并通過蒙特卡洛實(shí)驗(yàn)比較兩種估計(jì)方法的精度和收斂率,得出非線性最小二乘估計(jì)法在估計(jì)精度和估計(jì)的成功率兩方面都優(yōu)于三和法的結(jié)論;利用Gompertz曲線擬合中國電影票房數(shù)據(jù)并對(duì)其未來發(fā)展作出預(yù)測(cè):中國電影票房最終可以在2025年左右到達(dá)飽和狀態(tài),飽和狀態(tài)總規(guī)模大約為1 676.5億元。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses two parameter estimation methods of improved Gompertz model: triple sum method and nonlinear least square estimation method. The accuracy and convergence rate of the two methods are compared by Monte Carlo experiment. It is concluded that the nonlinear least square estimation method is superior to the triple sum method in both the estimation accuracy and the estimation success rate. The Gompertz curve is used to fit the box office data of Chinese films and its future development is forecasted: the box office in China can finally reach saturation state around 2025, and the total scale of saturation state is about 167.65 billion yuan.
【作者單位】： 中南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)工商管理博士后流動(dòng)站;中南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)與數(shù)學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目《廣義可加混合模型及其應(yīng)用研究》(14CTJ011)
【分類號(hào)】：J943;F224
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本文編號(hào)：1547095