【摘要】：本文首先分別按照諾瑟姆曲線和錢納里多國模型將一國的城鎮(zhèn)化和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平分階段，比較分析美國、日本、韓國、巴西、印度、中國等六個國家在相應(yīng)階段的發(fā)展水平，并運(yùn)用1960-2011年52年的年度數(shù)據(jù)，比較分析了在相應(yīng)的城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展階段中各個國家的消費(fèi)和投資的變動差異，發(fā)現(xiàn)中國的居民最終消費(fèi)額占GDP的比重明顯低于發(fā)達(dá)國家和新興國家，甚至低于發(fā)展中國家印度，而固定資產(chǎn)投資總額占GDP的比重遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于所比較的其他國家。 針對中國“低消費(fèi)、高投資”的現(xiàn)象，指出了儲蓄率、老年撫養(yǎng)比、社會保障支出比、全國居民基尼系數(shù)等四個影響居民最終消費(fèi)率的因素，首先用這些影響因素做了一個理論解釋，然后運(yùn)用1990-2011年22年的年度數(shù)據(jù)做了實(shí)證研究：單位根檢驗(yàn)、Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、Granger因果檢驗(yàn)以及多元回歸。研究結(jié)果表明：儲蓄率、老年撫養(yǎng)比、全國居民基尼系數(shù)和居民最終消費(fèi)率之間是反相關(guān)的關(guān)系，而社會保障支出比和居民最終消費(fèi)率之間是正相關(guān)的關(guān)系。 最后根據(jù)實(shí)證研究結(jié)果，從幾項(xiàng)影響居民最終消費(fèi)率的因素入手，，為中國的城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展道路以及在城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展道路的過程中如何拉動居民消費(fèi)這一需求提出建議和對策。
[Abstract]:In this paper, according to the Northham curve and Chanary multinational model, the urbanization and economic development level of a country are divided into stages, and the development levels of the United States, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, India and China in the corresponding stage are compared and analyzed, and the changes and differences of consumption and investment in each country in the corresponding stage of urbanization development are compared and analyzed by using the annual data from 1960 to 2011. It is found that the proportion of final consumption of Chinese residents in GDP is significantly lower than that of developed and emerging countries, and even lower than that of developing countries, India, while the proportion of total fixed asset investment in GDP is much higher than that of other countries compared with other countries. In view of the phenomenon of "low consumption and high investment" in China, this paper points out four factors that affect the final consumption rate of residents, such as savings rate, elderly dependency ratio, social security expenditure ratio and national Gini coefficient. First, this paper makes a theoretical explanation with these factors, and then makes an empirical study by using the annual data from 1990 to 2011: unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and multiple regression. The results show that there is an inverse correlation between the savings rate, the elderly dependency ratio, the Gini coefficient of the national residents and the final consumption rate of the residents, while the ratio of social security expenditure to the final consumption rate of the residents is positively correlated. Finally, according to the results of empirical research, starting from several factors that affect the final consumption rate of residents, this paper puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures for the development road of urbanization in China and how to stimulate the demand of residents' consumption in the process of urbanization development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.21;F126.1

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