中國居民預(yù)防性儲蓄研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-06-12 03:53
【摘要】：長期以來,中國居民儲蓄持續(xù)超常增長,如何破解中國式高儲蓄率困境成為各界廣泛關(guān)注的問題。由于不確定性是轉(zhuǎn)型期間的常態(tài),所以在研究中國居民儲蓄的文獻中預(yù)防性儲蓄理論備受關(guān)注。雖然大多數(shù)文獻都已證實居民存在預(yù)防性儲蓄行為,但是對于城鄉(xiāng)居民預(yù)防性儲蓄動機孰強孰弱、預(yù)防性儲蓄是否是導(dǎo)致城鄉(xiāng)居民財富積累的主要原因、影響居民預(yù)防性儲蓄的主要因素是什么等問題,我們還并不完全明了。因此,在已有文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,本文以《中國居民預(yù)防性儲蓄研究》為題,重點研究了上述三個問題。各章節(jié)的具體內(nèi)容如下： 第1章為緒論部分,主要介紹了文章的研究背景與意義、文章的研究思路與框架、以及文章的創(chuàng)新之處。 第2章為文獻綜述部分,對預(yù)防性儲蓄理論的形成和發(fā)展做了一個回顧。重點從預(yù)防性儲蓄動機存在條件、預(yù)防性儲蓄動機的檢驗、預(yù)防性儲蓄對居民儲蓄的解釋力和不確定性因素的分解等方面分別對國內(nèi)外文獻進行了歸納和梳理,并指出在研究中國居民預(yù)防性儲蓄時需要進一步深化的研究方向,進而引出本文的主要研究任務(wù)。 第3章對預(yù)防性儲蓄理論做了一個簡要介紹。首先,對不確定性概念進行了闡述,并界定了不確定性一詞在本文中的基本內(nèi)涵。然后,對不確定性條件下消費者的消費決策行為作了簡單介紹,并將期望效用最大化理論作為研究不確定性條件下消費者決策行為的理論基礎(chǔ)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,通過數(shù)學(xué)推理和幾何圖形來說明了不確定性對于消費者儲蓄決策的影響。最后,分析了轉(zhuǎn)型期間我國城鄉(xiāng)居民面臨的不確定性現(xiàn)狀,指出預(yù)防性儲蓄理論在中國具有潛在的適用性。 第4章是對城鄉(xiāng)居民預(yù)防性儲蓄動機的檢驗。與大多數(shù)文獻基于相對謹(jǐn)慎系數(shù)的分析不同,本文認(rèn)為絕對謹(jǐn)慎系數(shù)才是檢驗消費者預(yù)防性儲蓄動機強度的指標(biāo),尤其是在比較不同消費者之間預(yù)防性儲蓄動機強弱時更是如此。因此,本文主要是在CARA型效用函數(shù)假定下基于2000-2010年省級面板數(shù)據(jù)檢驗了中國城鄉(xiāng)居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機,并對比了城鄉(xiāng)居民預(yù)防性儲蓄動機的強弱。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),城鄉(xiāng)居民均存在顯著的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機,并且農(nóng)村居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機更強,大約是城市居民的1.5倍。需要明確的是,雖然本章經(jīng)驗結(jié)果認(rèn)為中國城鄉(xiāng)居民存在著預(yù)防性儲蓄動機,但是這并不意味著預(yù)防性儲蓄就是導(dǎo)致中國城鄉(xiāng)居民高儲蓄的主要原因。而且,與中國城鄉(xiāng)居民是否存在預(yù)防性儲蓄動機相比,我們更加關(guān)心中國城鄉(xiāng)居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄行為引起了多少預(yù)防性財富積累。 第5章則在統(tǒng)一的理論框架和相同時期的樣本數(shù)據(jù)下進一步研究了預(yù)防性儲蓄到底在多大程度上解釋了中國城鄉(xiāng)居民的財富積累。根據(jù)消費者的跨期消費決策模型求解出消費者在不確定性條件下的預(yù)防性財富積累函數(shù),然后結(jié)合現(xiàn)實情況和經(jīng)濟理論對財富積累函數(shù)中的各項參數(shù)進行賦值,進而得到城鄉(xiāng)居民人均預(yù)防性財富的估計值和預(yù)防性財富在城鄉(xiāng)居民總財富中的比重。根據(jù)本章的估算,我們認(rèn)為農(nóng)村居民的人均預(yù)防性財富持有量大約為3千元,占人均金融財產(chǎn)的34%左右；城市居民的人均預(yù)防性財富為9千元,占人均金融財產(chǎn)的20%左右。因此,不管是從城鄉(xiāng)居民人均持有的預(yù)防性財富絕對量來看,還是從預(yù)防性財富占金融財產(chǎn)的相對比重來看,結(jié)論都認(rèn)為預(yù)防性儲蓄是導(dǎo)致中國城鄉(xiāng)居民消費不足的重要原因之一。 第6章從預(yù)防性儲蓄動機和不確定性兩個方面研究了影響中國居民預(yù)防性財富積累的主要因素。首先,通過檢驗不同收入水平的居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)消費者的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機強弱與其收入水平相關(guān),收入水平越高的居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機強度越弱。其次,利用2003年第1季度至2012年第3季度的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)檢驗了投資收益不確定性對于城市居民預(yù)防性儲蓄的影響,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)消費者確實對投資收益不確定性較為敏感,且相較于股市,利率市場的不確定性對消費者的預(yù)防性儲蓄動機有著更強的促進作用。具體而言,同樣強度的收益率風(fēng)險增加所引起的消費者的人均消費支出增長量的波動在利率市場下大約為股票市場的40倍。最后,根據(jù)2000-2010年城市居民分類消費支出的省級面板數(shù)據(jù)檢驗了消費者對于各種不確定性因素的謹(jǐn)慎程度,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)城市居民的消費支出對于各項支出不確定性的敏感程度要大于其對收入不確定性的敏感程度,且在各項支出不確定性因素中,醫(yī)療保健支出不確定性和居住消費支出不確定性對于消費者儲蓄行為的影響最為顯著。 第7章提出了降低城鄉(xiāng)居民預(yù)防性儲蓄的一些政策建議。根據(jù)前文的計量結(jié)果,我們認(rèn)為可以從居民收入、投資收益、財產(chǎn)安全和社會保障四個方面入手弱化居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄需求。在制定具體的方案時,要認(rèn)識到城鄉(xiāng)居民之間又各自具有其特殊性。對于城市居民,預(yù)防性儲蓄動機相對較弱,其預(yù)防性財富積累主要是由于居民所面臨的不確定性較大引起的,因此我們主要是通過各種措施來降低其不確定性；對于農(nóng)村居民,不僅面臨著較大的不確定性,而且由于收入水平較低,其預(yù)防性儲蓄動機較強,所以既要降低其面臨的不確定性,還要通過提高收入水平降低其預(yù)防性儲蓄動機強度。 最后一章總結(jié)了本文的主要研究結(jié)論和不足之處,指出了未來的研究方向。 通過對中國城鄉(xiāng)居民預(yù)防性儲蓄行為的實證研究,本文得出以下結(jié)論：中國城鄉(xiāng)居民持有較多的預(yù)防性儲蓄是我國居民消費需求不足的重要原因,我們應(yīng)該通過降低城鄉(xiāng)居民所面臨的勞動收入、投資收益、教育支出、住房支出、醫(yī)療支出等方面的不確定性因素來弱化其預(yù)防性儲蓄需求。雖然城市居民的預(yù)防性儲蓄水平更高,但是這并不意味著政府公共政策應(yīng)當(dāng)向城鎮(zhèn)居民傾斜。必須注意到,在中國特有的城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)下,農(nóng)村居民的絕對收入水平和消費水平仍遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于城市居民,其預(yù)防性儲蓄動機更強,預(yù)防性儲蓄占總儲蓄的比重也更高。因此,政府應(yīng)當(dāng)進一步完善農(nóng)村社會保障體系,打破城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu),推進城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè),提高農(nóng)村居民的消費水平,消除城鄉(xiāng)差異。這不僅將釋放大量城鄉(xiāng)潛在的消費需求,有利于解決長期困擾我國的居民儲蓄超常增長的問題,也有利于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和社會穩(wěn)定。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the persistent and extraordinary growth of Chinese residents' savings and how to crack the predicament of the Chinese high saving rate has become a widespread concern of all circles. Since the uncertainty is the normal of the transition period, the preventive saving theory in the literature of the study of the Chinese resident's savings is of great concern. Although most of the literature has proved that the resident has the preventive saving behavior, it is the main reason why the preventive saving is the main cause of the accumulation of the wealth of the urban and rural residents and the main factors that affect the resident's preventive saving, which is the main cause of the accumulation of the wealth of the urban and rural residents. We're not completely clear. Therefore, on the basis of the existing literature, this paper focuses on the above three problems with a focus on the study of preventive savings of Chinese residents. The specific contents of each section are as follows: The first chapter is the introduction section, mainly introduces the research background and significance of the article, the study thought and framework of the article, and the innovation of the article Chapter 2 provides an overview of the literature, and has made a contribution to the formation and development of the theory of preventive savings. A review is made on the existing conditions of the motive of preventive saving, the checking of the motive of preventive saving, the explanation of the saving of the residents and the decomposition of the uncertainty, etc. And points out that it is necessary to further deepen the research direction in the study of the preventive saving of Chinese residents, so as to lead out the main research of this paper. The task is to be carried out. Chapter 3 deals with the theory of preventive savings. First of all, the concept of uncertainty is described and the word uncertainty is defined in this paper. Then, the consumer's consumption decision-making behavior is introduced briefly under the condition of uncertainty, and the expected utility maximization theory is used as the decision-making behavior of consumers under the condition of uncertainty. On this basis, the mathematical reasoning and geometry are used to illustrate the uncertainty as to the consumer's savings. Finally, the paper analyzes the current uncertainty of the urban and rural residents in China during the transition period, and points out that the preventive saving theory has the potential to be in China. The applicability of Chapter 4 is to the prevention of urban and rural residents This paper, based on the analysis of the relative prudent coefficients of most of the literature, is of the opinion that the absolute discretion is the index to check the strength of the consumer's preventive savings, especially in the comparison of the preventive savings motive between different consumers. This paper, based on the data of the provincial panel of 2000-2010 under the assumption of the CARA-type utility function, has tested the preventive savings motive of the urban and rural residents of China based on the data of the provincial panel in 2000-2010, and compared the preventive measures of the urban and rural residents. The result shows that both urban and rural residents have significant preventive savings motivation, and the preventive savings motivation of rural residents is stronger, which is about the city There is a 1.5-fold increase in the population. It is clear that, although the experience in this chapter is of the view that there is a preventive savings motivation for both urban and rural residents in China, this does not mean that preventive savings are the result of a high level of urban and rural residents in China The main reason for saving is that, as compared with the existence of a preventive savings motivation for urban and rural residents in China, we are more concerned about the amount of preventive savings of urban and rural residents in China The accumulation of preventive wealth. Chapter 5 further studies the extent to which preventive savings account for China under the uniform theoretical framework and sample data of the same period According to the consumer's cross-period consumption decision-making model, the preventive property accumulation function of the consumer under the uncertainty condition is solved, and the wealth accumulation function is then combined with the reality and the economic theory. The values of the various parameters are assigned to obtain the estimated value of the per-capita preventive wealth of the urban and rural residents and the preventive wealth in the urban and rural areas According to the estimates in this chapter, we believe that the per capita preventive wealth of rural residents is about $3,000, accounting for about 34 per cent of the per capita financial property; the per capita preventive wealth of urban residents is $9,000, accounting for gold per capita Therefore, in the view of the absolute quantity of the preventive wealth held by the urban and rural residents, or from the relative proportion of the preventive wealth to the financial property, the conclusion is that the preventive saving is the result of the consumption of the urban and rural residents in China. One of the most important causes of the shortage. Chapter 6 studies the influence of the Chinese residents from two aspects of the motive and the uncertainty of preventive savings First of all, by examining the motive of preventive savings for residents of different income levels, this paper finds that the motivation of the consumer's preventive savings is related to the income level, and the higher the income level is. The weaker the preventive savings motivation. Secondly, using the time series data from the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2012, the effect of the uncertainty of the investment income on the preventive saving of urban residents is verified, and the result shows that the consumer does not know the investment income. More sensitive, and the uncertainty of the interest rate market is more sensitive to the consumer's preventive savings than in the stock market In particular, the fluctuation of the per-capita consumption expenditure increase of the consumer caused by the increase of the yield risk of the same intensity is under the interest rate market About 40 times the stock market. Finally, according to the provincial panel data for urban residents' classified consumption spending,2000-2010, the consumer is tested for a variety of The degree of caution of the uncertain factors is that the consumption expenditure of the urban residents is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the expenditure and is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the income. in that uncertain factor of expenditure, the uncertainty of health-care expenditure and the uncertainty of living consumption expenditure are for consumers The effect of saving behavior is the most significant. Chapter 7 puts forward the reduction of the urban and rural residence According to the above-mentioned measurement results, we think it is possible to enter from the four aspects of resident income, investment income, property security and social security To reduce the need for preventive savings of the population, and to recognize the urban and rural areas in the formulation of specific programmes As for urban residents, the motive of preventive savings is relatively weak, and the accumulation of preventive wealth is mainly due to the uncertainty of the residents, so we mainly reduce their uncertainty through various measures, and to the rural residents It is not only faced with great uncertainty, but also because of the low income level, the preventive saving motivation is strong, so it is not only to reduce the uncertainty facing it, but also to improve the income water In the last chapter, the main conclusions and conclusions of this paper are summarized. The paper points out the future research direction. Through the empirical study of the preventive saving behavior of the urban and rural residents in China, the following conclusions are drawn: China's urban and rural residents hold more preventive savings, which is an important reason for the shortage of the resident's resident consumption in our country, and we should The method has the advantages of reducing the labor income, the investment income, the education expenditure, the housing expenditure, the medical expenditure and the like faced by the urban and rural residents The factors of uncertainty are used to weaken the demand for preventive savings. Although the level of preventive savings for urban residents is higher, it is not intended to The public policy of the government should be inclined to the urban residents. It is important to note that the absolute income level and consumption level of the rural residents are still far lower than that of the urban residents under the unique urban and rural dual structure of China, and the preventive saving motivation of the rural residents is more Therefore, the government should further improve the rural social security system, break the dual structure of the urban and rural areas, and advance the construction of the urbanization. The consumption level of high rural residents and the difference between urban and rural areas will be eliminated. This will not only release a large amount of potential consumption demand in urban and rural areas, but also help to solve the long-term problem of the growth of the resident's savings in our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F126.1
本文編號：2497710
[Abstract]:For a long time, the persistent and extraordinary growth of Chinese residents' savings and how to crack the predicament of the Chinese high saving rate has become a widespread concern of all circles. Since the uncertainty is the normal of the transition period, the preventive saving theory in the literature of the study of the Chinese resident's savings is of great concern. Although most of the literature has proved that the resident has the preventive saving behavior, it is the main reason why the preventive saving is the main cause of the accumulation of the wealth of the urban and rural residents and the main factors that affect the resident's preventive saving, which is the main cause of the accumulation of the wealth of the urban and rural residents. We're not completely clear. Therefore, on the basis of the existing literature, this paper focuses on the above three problems with a focus on the study of preventive savings of Chinese residents. The specific contents of each section are as follows: The first chapter is the introduction section, mainly introduces the research background and significance of the article, the study thought and framework of the article, and the innovation of the article Chapter 2 provides an overview of the literature, and has made a contribution to the formation and development of the theory of preventive savings. A review is made on the existing conditions of the motive of preventive saving, the checking of the motive of preventive saving, the explanation of the saving of the residents and the decomposition of the uncertainty, etc. And points out that it is necessary to further deepen the research direction in the study of the preventive saving of Chinese residents, so as to lead out the main research of this paper. The task is to be carried out. Chapter 3 deals with the theory of preventive savings. First of all, the concept of uncertainty is described and the word uncertainty is defined in this paper. Then, the consumer's consumption decision-making behavior is introduced briefly under the condition of uncertainty, and the expected utility maximization theory is used as the decision-making behavior of consumers under the condition of uncertainty. On this basis, the mathematical reasoning and geometry are used to illustrate the uncertainty as to the consumer's savings. Finally, the paper analyzes the current uncertainty of the urban and rural residents in China during the transition period, and points out that the preventive saving theory has the potential to be in China. The applicability of Chapter 4 is to the prevention of urban and rural residents This paper, based on the analysis of the relative prudent coefficients of most of the literature, is of the opinion that the absolute discretion is the index to check the strength of the consumer's preventive savings, especially in the comparison of the preventive savings motive between different consumers. This paper, based on the data of the provincial panel of 2000-2010 under the assumption of the CARA-type utility function, has tested the preventive savings motive of the urban and rural residents of China based on the data of the provincial panel in 2000-2010, and compared the preventive measures of the urban and rural residents. The result shows that both urban and rural residents have significant preventive savings motivation, and the preventive savings motivation of rural residents is stronger, which is about the city There is a 1.5-fold increase in the population. It is clear that, although the experience in this chapter is of the view that there is a preventive savings motivation for both urban and rural residents in China, this does not mean that preventive savings are the result of a high level of urban and rural residents in China The main reason for saving is that, as compared with the existence of a preventive savings motivation for urban and rural residents in China, we are more concerned about the amount of preventive savings of urban and rural residents in China The accumulation of preventive wealth. Chapter 5 further studies the extent to which preventive savings account for China under the uniform theoretical framework and sample data of the same period According to the consumer's cross-period consumption decision-making model, the preventive property accumulation function of the consumer under the uncertainty condition is solved, and the wealth accumulation function is then combined with the reality and the economic theory. The values of the various parameters are assigned to obtain the estimated value of the per-capita preventive wealth of the urban and rural residents and the preventive wealth in the urban and rural areas According to the estimates in this chapter, we believe that the per capita preventive wealth of rural residents is about $3,000, accounting for about 34 per cent of the per capita financial property; the per capita preventive wealth of urban residents is $9,000, accounting for gold per capita Therefore, in the view of the absolute quantity of the preventive wealth held by the urban and rural residents, or from the relative proportion of the preventive wealth to the financial property, the conclusion is that the preventive saving is the result of the consumption of the urban and rural residents in China. One of the most important causes of the shortage. Chapter 6 studies the influence of the Chinese residents from two aspects of the motive and the uncertainty of preventive savings First of all, by examining the motive of preventive savings for residents of different income levels, this paper finds that the motivation of the consumer's preventive savings is related to the income level, and the higher the income level is. The weaker the preventive savings motivation. Secondly, using the time series data from the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2012, the effect of the uncertainty of the investment income on the preventive saving of urban residents is verified, and the result shows that the consumer does not know the investment income. More sensitive, and the uncertainty of the interest rate market is more sensitive to the consumer's preventive savings than in the stock market In particular, the fluctuation of the per-capita consumption expenditure increase of the consumer caused by the increase of the yield risk of the same intensity is under the interest rate market About 40 times the stock market. Finally, according to the provincial panel data for urban residents' classified consumption spending,2000-2010, the consumer is tested for a variety of The degree of caution of the uncertain factors is that the consumption expenditure of the urban residents is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the expenditure and is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the income. in that uncertain factor of expenditure, the uncertainty of health-care expenditure and the uncertainty of living consumption expenditure are for consumers The effect of saving behavior is the most significant. Chapter 7 puts forward the reduction of the urban and rural residence According to the above-mentioned measurement results, we think it is possible to enter from the four aspects of resident income, investment income, property security and social security To reduce the need for preventive savings of the population, and to recognize the urban and rural areas in the formulation of specific programmes As for urban residents, the motive of preventive savings is relatively weak, and the accumulation of preventive wealth is mainly due to the uncertainty of the residents, so we mainly reduce their uncertainty through various measures, and to the rural residents It is not only faced with great uncertainty, but also because of the low income level, the preventive saving motivation is strong, so it is not only to reduce the uncertainty facing it, but also to improve the income water In the last chapter, the main conclusions and conclusions of this paper are summarized. The paper points out the future research direction. Through the empirical study of the preventive saving behavior of the urban and rural residents in China, the following conclusions are drawn: China's urban and rural residents hold more preventive savings, which is an important reason for the shortage of the resident's resident consumption in our country, and we should The method has the advantages of reducing the labor income, the investment income, the education expenditure, the housing expenditure, the medical expenditure and the like faced by the urban and rural residents The factors of uncertainty are used to weaken the demand for preventive savings. Although the level of preventive savings for urban residents is higher, it is not intended to The public policy of the government should be inclined to the urban residents. It is important to note that the absolute income level and consumption level of the rural residents are still far lower than that of the urban residents under the unique urban and rural dual structure of China, and the preventive saving motivation of the rural residents is more Therefore, the government should further improve the rural social security system, break the dual structure of the urban and rural areas, and advance the construction of the urbanization. The consumption level of high rural residents and the difference between urban and rural areas will be eliminated. This will not only release a large amount of potential consumption demand in urban and rural areas, but also help to solve the long-term problem of the growth of the resident's savings in our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F126.1
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
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