【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟全球化和貿(mào)易自由化的發(fā)展，亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體為了分享全球化的利益，紛紛逐步放松資本管制，走上資本開放進程。這一舉措為其爭取到了良好的發(fā)展機遇。大量的國際資本流入對亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體經(jīng)濟的迅猛發(fā)展起到了不可忽視的作用，但同時也帶來了潛在的金融風險。世界經(jīng)濟環(huán)境的不斷變化使得國際資本在新興經(jīng)濟體的流動日趨頻繁，結構波動也愈加劇烈。國際資本流動結構的變化顯著影響著國際資本的流動性和亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體的經(jīng)濟增長。如何科學合理的確定引資結構，最大化利用外資促進經(jīng)濟增長的同時防范金融風險成為當前亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體共同面臨的一個政策難題。在這種背景下，建立準確規(guī)范的經(jīng)濟模型分析亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體國際資本流動結構對經(jīng)濟增長的影響作用具有重要的研究意義。 本文首先基于內(nèi)生增長理論建立模型分析國際資本流動結構對經(jīng)濟增長的影響，然后簡要介紹了亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體國際資本流動結構的國別情況并分析亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體國際資本流動結構在不同的經(jīng)濟增長階段的變化特征，接著在實證部分本文利用7個亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體1992-2012年間的國際資本流動結構與經(jīng)濟增長數(shù)據(jù)建立面板回歸模型，分析國際資本流動結構對亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體經(jīng)濟增長的影響，研究結果表明：國際資本流動結構顯著影響經(jīng)濟增長，三種類型的國際資本流動形式均能促進亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體的經(jīng)濟增長。其中，直接投資的經(jīng)濟增長效用最大，證券投資次之，，其他投資最小。當國際資本流動出現(xiàn)逆轉，即資本凈流入為負時，東道國經(jīng)濟增長率將顯著下降。在此基礎上，本文提出了我國國際資本流動結構管理的原則：積極引進國際資本，合理確定引資結構，充分發(fā)揮引入資本的經(jīng)濟增長效用，防范資本流動風險。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and trade liberalization, Asian emerging economies have gradually relaxed capital controls and embarked on the process of capital opening in order to share the benefits of globalization. This move has won it a good opportunity for development. A large number of international capital inflows have played an important role in the rapid development of Asian emerging economies, but also brought potential financial risks. With the continuous change of the world economic environment, the flow of international capital in emerging economies is becoming more and more frequent, and the structural fluctuations are becoming more and more intense. The change of international capital flow structure has a significant impact on the liquidity of international capital and the economic growth of Asian emerging economies. How to scientifically and reasonably determine the structure of attracting foreign investment and maximize the use of foreign capital to promote economic growth while preventing financial risks has become a common policy problem faced by Asian emerging economies. In this context, it is of great significance to establish an accurate and standardized economic model to analyze the impact of international capital flow structure on economic growth in Asian emerging economies. In this paper, based on the theory of endogenous growth, a model is established to analyze the impact of international capital flow structure on economic growth. Then it briefly introduces the country situation of the international capital flow structure of Asian emerging economies and analyzes the changing characteristics of the international capital flow structure of Asian emerging economies at different stages of economic growth. Then, in the empirical part, this paper uses the international capital flow structure and economic growth data of seven Asian emerging economies from 1992 to 2012 to establish a panel regression model to analyze the impact of international capital flow structure on the economic growth of Asian emerging economies. The results show that the structure of international capital flows significantly affects economic growth, and all three types of international capital flows can promote the economic growth of Asian emerging economies. Among them, direct investment has the greatest economic growth effect, securities investment is the second, and other investments are the smallest. When the international capital flow reverses, that is, the net capital inflow is negative, the economic growth rate of the host country will decline significantly. On this basis, this paper puts forward the principles of the management of international capital flow structure in China: actively introducing international capital, reasonably determining the structure of attracting capital, giving full play to the economic growth effect of introducing capital, and preventing the risk of capital flow.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F831.7;F114.46

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