外國直接投資對哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-05-17 13:40
【摘要】：本文的研究目的是考量外國直接投資對于哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。投資在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中扮演者重要角色。他們對經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展和持續(xù)增長必不可少,積極的投資過程從整體上決定了一國的潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況,有助于人民生活質(zhì)量的提升。經(jīng)濟(jì)個體的活動很大程度上取決于投資的數(shù)量和形式。從經(jīng)濟(jì)層面來講,投資要求擴(kuò)大再生產(chǎn)力、國家結(jié)構(gòu)的改革、提升國內(nèi)產(chǎn)品的競爭力、解決社會經(jīng)濟(jì)問題、尤其是失業(yè)率、環(huán)境、健康以及教育制度等方面的問題。從宏觀層面來看,投資有助于公司的可持續(xù)性發(fā)展、有利于固定資產(chǎn)的升級、提升公司的技術(shù)水平、穩(wěn)定財務(wù)環(huán)境、增強(qiáng)公司的競爭力、提升勞動力水平、改善管理技能。與哈薩克斯坦共和國的經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定形勢相關(guān),許多知名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家把我們國家的未來發(fā)展情況與哈薩克斯坦大規(guī)模的外國投資聯(lián)系在了一起,哈薩克斯坦致力于建立文明社會,提高人民生活質(zhì)量的長期目標(biāo)。很難相信一些外國投資對于提升我們偉大的祖國的經(jīng)濟(jì)有幫助。但是,從一個角度來看,外國投資對于本國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和增長也是一種刺激,可以視為是一種催化劑。外國投資產(chǎn)生的資金流入對于解決現(xiàn)在的危機(jī)、完成初步恢復(fù)工作來講至關(guān)重要。哈薩克斯坦公民的利益與外國投資者的利益并不相沖突,因此,吸引資本十分重要,不是剝奪擁有者的初始動力,而是處于外國投資后續(xù)的行為有利于哈薩克斯坦共和國的目的。這個問題可以解決,但是首先我們需要了解哈薩克斯坦有關(guān)于吸引外國投資的具體規(guī)定,以便于思考可以提升國家投資環(huán)境的更好的經(jīng)濟(jì)和法律結(jié)構(gòu)。因此,大量的精力應(yīng)該集中在這方面的不確定性限制了投資的環(huán)境,至少目前來看是這樣的,因此,有一種奇怪的悖論:保證投資者源于主要投資是吸引外國投資的最有效的方法。假設(shè)哈薩克斯坦在多數(shù)情況下嚴(yán)重的技術(shù)落后,我們國家需要外國資本,這將帶來新的技術(shù)和現(xiàn)代的管理方法,這也將促進(jìn)本國投資的發(fā)展。許多發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)驗顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)中的投資快速發(fā)展始于外國資本的進(jìn)入。本篇文章的主要目的是分析哈薩克斯坦從1991年起外國直接投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系。對于實證分析我選用了簡單回歸分析模型,使用了哈薩克斯坦從1993年到2016年的的差分經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。通過分析可以看出,GDP的增長率和貨幣供給與外國直接投資和出口數(shù)量有關(guān)聯(lián)。在運轉(zhuǎn)回歸模型之前,我們需要檢驗數(shù)據(jù)的穩(wěn)定性。之后,我將會使用線性回歸模型。本文使用的數(shù)據(jù)指標(biāo)如GDP, FDI,貨幣供給和出口數(shù)量均采用1993至2016年間的數(shù)據(jù)。對于時間序列的預(yù)測,本文選用了 ARIMA模型,ARIMA是綜合自回歸移動平均模型的簡稱。它是一類在時間序列數(shù)據(jù)中捕獲一組不同標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時間結(jié)構(gòu)的模型。對于這個方法,本文采用了 1993年到2014年的數(shù)據(jù),并且對2017年的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測。根據(jù)哈薩克斯坦共和國中央銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在2005到2016年間,哈薩克斯坦共和國總共吸引了 221億的外國直接投資。根據(jù)“Doing Business 2016”的國際排名,在190個國家中,哈薩克斯坦的吸引外國投資的能力排名第29位。為了使整個國家創(chuàng)造出利于投資的的商業(yè)環(huán)境,哈薩克斯坦政府以商業(yè)發(fā)達(dá)的國家為榜樣,尤其注意提升商業(yè)背景。本篇論文更具體的為如下問題進(jìn)行了分析:分析哈薩克斯坦的投資環(huán)境;投資對于哈薩克斯坦經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用;通過線性回歸分析外國直接投資對于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響;分析哈薩克斯坦共和國1993～2016外國直接資現(xiàn)金流的情況;檢驗影響哈薩克斯坦外國直接投資流入的因素;通過ARIMA模型預(yù)測哈薩克斯坦的外國直接投資的流入;分析外國直接投資流入的地區(qū)和部門。盡管外國直接投資對于整個國家來講十分重要,然而目前還沒有研究表明外國直接投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間有著明確的正向關(guān)系。許多研究表明只有從欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)獲得的數(shù)據(jù)才有正向關(guān)系的趨勢,然而研究人員并沒有從發(fā)達(dá)國家中找出相關(guān)的結(jié)論,本片論文以哈薩克斯坦為基礎(chǔ),一方面研究了這種積極關(guān)系是否存在,另一方面,本文的研究結(jié)論將有利于我自己國家的外國直接投資的增長,從而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的繁榮。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to consider the impact of foreign direct investment on the economy of Kazakhstan. Investment plays an important role in economic development. They are essential to the stable development and sustained growth of the economy, and the positive investment process determines the potential economic situation of a country as a whole, and contributes to the improvement of the quality of the people's life. The activity of the economic individual depends to a large extent on the quantity and form of the investment. At the economic level, the investment demands the expansion of the re-productivity, the reform of the country's structure, the promotion of the competitiveness of the domestic product, the social and economic problems, in particular the unemployment, the environment, the health and the education system. From the macro level, investment can help the sustainable development of the company, benefit the upgrading of fixed assets, improve the technology level of the company, stabilize the financial environment, enhance the competitiveness of the company, improve the labor force level and improve the management skills. With regard to the situation of the economic and social stability of the Republic of Kazakhstan, many well-known economists have linked the future development of our country with the large-scale foreign investment in Kazakhstan, and Kazakhstan is committed to the establishment of a civil society, And the long-term goal of improving the quality of people's life. It is hard to believe that some foreign investment is helping to lift the economy of our great motherland. However, from one point of view, foreign investment is also a stimulus to the development and growth of its economy and can be seen as a catalyst. The inflow of funds from foreign investment is essential to the settlement of the present crisis and to the completion of the initial recovery effort. The interests of the citizens of Kazakhstan do not conflict with the interests of foreign investors, so it is important to attract capital, not to deprive the owner of the initial power, but to be in a follow-up to foreign investment for the purposes of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This problem can be solved, but first we need to know that Kazakhstan has specific provisions on attracting foreign investment in order to reflect on a better economic and legal structure that can improve the national investment environment. As a result, a great deal of energy should focus on the uncertainty in that area that limits the environment of investment, at least at the present time, and, therefore, there is a curious paradox: to ensure that investors are the most effective way to attract foreign investment from the main investment. Assuming that Kazakhstan's serious technical backwardness in most cases, our country needs foreign capital, which will bring about new technology and a modern management approach, which will also contribute to the development of national investment. The experience of many developing countries shows that the rapid development of investment in the economy begins with the entry of foreign capital. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the relationship between Kazakhstan's foreign direct investment and economic growth since 1991. For empirical analysis, I selected a simple regression analysis model, using the difference economic data from 1993 to 2016. By analysis, it can be seen that the growth rate of GDP and the supply of money are associated with the number of foreign direct investment and exports. Before running the regression model, we need to check the stability of the data. After that, I'll use the linear regression model. The data indicators used in this paper, such as GDP, FDI, currency supply and export volume, use data from 1993 to 2016. For the prediction of time series, the ARIMA model is selected, and ARIMA is the abbreviation of the integrated self-regressive moving average model. It is a class of time series data that captures a set of different standard time structures. For this approach, data from 1993 to 2014 were used and the indicators for 2017 were forecast. According to the data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Republic of Kazakhstan has attracted a total of 221 million foreign direct investment between 2005 and 2016. According to the international ranking of the "Doing Business 2016", Kazakhstan's ability to attract foreign investment is the 29th in 190 countries. In order to create an investment-friendly business environment for the entire country, the Government of Kazakhstan, in the form of a well-developed country, has given particular attention to the promotion of the business context. In this paper, the following problems are analyzed: the investment environment of Kazakhstan is analyzed, the effect of investment on the economy of Kazakhstan is analyzed, and the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth is analyzed through linear regression analysis. Analysis of the cash flow of foreign direct investment in the Republic of Kazakhstan from 1993 to 2016; the factors affecting the inflows of foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan; the prediction of inflows of foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan through the ARIMA model; and the analysis of areas and sectors where FDI flows. While foreign direct investment is important to the country as a whole, there is no research at present to indicate a clear positive relationship between FDI and economic growth. Many studies have shown that only the data obtained from the less developed areas has a positive relationship, but the researchers do not find relevant conclusions from the developed countries, this paper is based on Kazakhstan, on the one hand, whether this positive relationship exists or not, and on the other hand, The conclusion of this paper will be beneficial to the growth of foreign direct investment in my own country, thus promoting the prosperity of the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F833.61;F136.1
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to consider the impact of foreign direct investment on the economy of Kazakhstan. Investment plays an important role in economic development. They are essential to the stable development and sustained growth of the economy, and the positive investment process determines the potential economic situation of a country as a whole, and contributes to the improvement of the quality of the people's life. The activity of the economic individual depends to a large extent on the quantity and form of the investment. At the economic level, the investment demands the expansion of the re-productivity, the reform of the country's structure, the promotion of the competitiveness of the domestic product, the social and economic problems, in particular the unemployment, the environment, the health and the education system. From the macro level, investment can help the sustainable development of the company, benefit the upgrading of fixed assets, improve the technology level of the company, stabilize the financial environment, enhance the competitiveness of the company, improve the labor force level and improve the management skills. With regard to the situation of the economic and social stability of the Republic of Kazakhstan, many well-known economists have linked the future development of our country with the large-scale foreign investment in Kazakhstan, and Kazakhstan is committed to the establishment of a civil society, And the long-term goal of improving the quality of people's life. It is hard to believe that some foreign investment is helping to lift the economy of our great motherland. However, from one point of view, foreign investment is also a stimulus to the development and growth of its economy and can be seen as a catalyst. The inflow of funds from foreign investment is essential to the settlement of the present crisis and to the completion of the initial recovery effort. The interests of the citizens of Kazakhstan do not conflict with the interests of foreign investors, so it is important to attract capital, not to deprive the owner of the initial power, but to be in a follow-up to foreign investment for the purposes of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This problem can be solved, but first we need to know that Kazakhstan has specific provisions on attracting foreign investment in order to reflect on a better economic and legal structure that can improve the national investment environment. As a result, a great deal of energy should focus on the uncertainty in that area that limits the environment of investment, at least at the present time, and, therefore, there is a curious paradox: to ensure that investors are the most effective way to attract foreign investment from the main investment. Assuming that Kazakhstan's serious technical backwardness in most cases, our country needs foreign capital, which will bring about new technology and a modern management approach, which will also contribute to the development of national investment. The experience of many developing countries shows that the rapid development of investment in the economy begins with the entry of foreign capital. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the relationship between Kazakhstan's foreign direct investment and economic growth since 1991. For empirical analysis, I selected a simple regression analysis model, using the difference economic data from 1993 to 2016. By analysis, it can be seen that the growth rate of GDP and the supply of money are associated with the number of foreign direct investment and exports. Before running the regression model, we need to check the stability of the data. After that, I'll use the linear regression model. The data indicators used in this paper, such as GDP, FDI, currency supply and export volume, use data from 1993 to 2016. For the prediction of time series, the ARIMA model is selected, and ARIMA is the abbreviation of the integrated self-regressive moving average model. It is a class of time series data that captures a set of different standard time structures. For this approach, data from 1993 to 2014 were used and the indicators for 2017 were forecast. According to the data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Republic of Kazakhstan has attracted a total of 221 million foreign direct investment between 2005 and 2016. According to the international ranking of the "Doing Business 2016", Kazakhstan's ability to attract foreign investment is the 29th in 190 countries. In order to create an investment-friendly business environment for the entire country, the Government of Kazakhstan, in the form of a well-developed country, has given particular attention to the promotion of the business context. In this paper, the following problems are analyzed: the investment environment of Kazakhstan is analyzed, the effect of investment on the economy of Kazakhstan is analyzed, and the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth is analyzed through linear regression analysis. Analysis of the cash flow of foreign direct investment in the Republic of Kazakhstan from 1993 to 2016; the factors affecting the inflows of foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan; the prediction of inflows of foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan through the ARIMA model; and the analysis of areas and sectors where FDI flows. While foreign direct investment is important to the country as a whole, there is no research at present to indicate a clear positive relationship between FDI and economic growth. Many studies have shown that only the data obtained from the less developed areas has a positive relationship, but the researchers do not find relevant conclusions from the developed countries, this paper is based on Kazakhstan, on the one hand, whether this positive relationship exists or not, and on the other hand, The conclusion of this paper will be beneficial to the growth of foreign direct investment in my own country, thus promoting the prosperity of the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F833.61;F136.1
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