【摘要】：自解放全中國(guó)以來(lái)，我國(guó)高度重視工業(yè)的發(fā)展，尤其是重工業(yè)的發(fā)展，而工業(yè)主要集中在城市，造成城市的優(yōu)先發(fā)展，但在當(dāng)時(shí)的環(huán)境下，國(guó)家資金有限，不得不采取犧牲農(nóng)業(yè)的策略，不斷從農(nóng)業(yè)吸取資金，注入到工業(yè)的發(fā)展中，并且在改革初期實(shí)行了戶籍制，農(nóng)村的大量的剩余勞力無(wú)法充實(shí)到工業(yè)中，造成了農(nóng)村無(wú)法分享到城市的發(fā)展成果，無(wú)法和城市中公民享有同樣的福利待遇，這些造成了城鄉(xiāng)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)，并隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)不斷的發(fā)展，這種差距有不斷被拉大的趨勢(shì)。 現(xiàn)在，城鄉(xiāng)差距的不斷拉大，嚴(yán)重制約了我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)發(fā)展，成為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中名副其實(shí)的“短板”，同時(shí)和城鄉(xiāng)收入差距不斷拉大同時(shí)存在的貧富差距懸殊的問(wèn)題，不斷的挑戰(zhàn)社會(huì)的和諧發(fā)展，造成了很多的社會(huì)問(wèn)題和社會(huì)的亂象。因此，城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展差距的拉大問(wèn)題成為了一個(gè)全社會(huì)共同關(guān)注的問(wèn)題，也成為實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)和諧發(fā)展，解決社會(huì)亂象，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的目標(biāo)的必經(jīng)之路。 本文是對(duì)云南城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的實(shí)證分析與研究，引用了1990年到2012年的云南的城鄉(xiāng)收入的數(shù)據(jù)，首先運(yùn)用了擬合趨勢(shì)和ARIMA模型對(duì)云南現(xiàn)階段的城鄉(xiāng)差距做了一個(gè)分析，并對(duì)其發(fā)展趨勢(shì)做了預(yù)測(cè)，進(jìn)而運(yùn)用2011年的云南的城鄉(xiāng)的主要的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展因素的數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)城市和鄉(xiāng)村的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展因素，分別運(yùn)用主成分分析和多元回歸分析，，找出影響云南城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的部分因素。最后是本文的主要結(jié)論和政策建議。 研究結(jié)果表明：云南省的城鄉(xiāng)收入差距不斷地被拉大，預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果是，如沒(méi)有政策的變動(dòng)，云南的城鄉(xiāng)收入差距將不斷的被拉大。通過(guò)主成分分析，把10個(gè)因子組合成了兩個(gè)因子，進(jìn)而對(duì)這兩個(gè)因子與云南省城鄉(xiāng)收入比值進(jìn)行回歸分析，找到各個(gè)因子在云南省城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距中的作用，區(qū)分出各個(gè)因子的作用的大小。因此，現(xiàn)階段的鄉(xiāng)村的發(fā)展主要是依靠城市發(fā)展產(chǎn)生收入對(duì)農(nóng)村的反哺，無(wú)法自身進(jìn)行內(nèi)在循環(huán)，這是由于歷史條件和中國(guó)獨(dú)特的發(fā)展過(guò)程造成的，具有一定的不可避免性，但從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，城鄉(xiāng)差距的不斷地?cái)U(kuò)大，使我們不能滿足于現(xiàn)狀，必須提出解決方案，使我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展盡快的跨過(guò)這一階段，縮小城鄉(xiāng)差距，解決日益嚴(yán)重的社會(huì)問(wèn)題，所以我們必須為農(nóng)村的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)型做努力，早日縮小差距，使農(nóng)村成為自我可持續(xù)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式。
[Abstract]:Since the liberation of the whole of China, our country has attached great importance to the development of industry, especially the development of heavy industry, which is mainly concentrated in cities, which has given priority to the development of cities. However, under the circumstances at that time, state funds were limited. We had to adopt the strategy of sacrificing agriculture, continue to draw funds from agriculture and inject it into the development of industry, and at the beginning of the reform we had to implement the household registration system, and a large amount of surplus rural labour could not be replenished to industry. As a result, rural areas can not share the fruits of urban development, and can not enjoy the same welfare treatment as the citizens in cities. These have resulted in the basis of urban-rural dual economy, and with the continuous development of the economy, the gap has been constantly widened. At present, the widening gap between urban and rural areas has seriously restricted the sustained economic development of our country and has become a real "short board" in economic development. At the same time, the gap between the rich and the poor, which exists at the same time as the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, is a problem that exists at the same time. Constantly challenging the harmonious development of society, caused a lot of social problems and social chaos. Therefore, the widening of the gap between urban and rural development has become a common concern of the whole society, but also become the only way to realize the harmonious development of society, to solve the social chaos, and to achieve the goal of sustainable economic development. This paper is an empirical analysis and research on the income gap between urban and rural areas in Yunnan Province, and cites the data of urban and rural income in Yunnan from 1990 to 2012. Firstly, it makes an analysis of the urban-rural gap in Yunnan at present by using the fitting trend and ARIMA model. The author forecasts its development trend, then applies the data of the main economic development factors of urban and rural areas in 2011, and applies principal component analysis and multivariate regression analysis to the economic development factors of urban and rural areas, respectively. Find out some factors that affect the income gap between urban and rural areas in Yunnan. Finally, the main conclusions and policy recommendations of this paper. The results show that the urban-rural income gap in Yunnan Province is constantly widening, and the predicted result is that the urban-rural income gap in Yunnan will continue to be widened if there is no policy change. Through principal component analysis, the 10 factors are combined into two factors, and then the regression analysis between these two factors and the ratio of urban and rural income of Yunnan Province is carried out to find out the role of each factor in the income gap between urban and rural residents in Yunnan Province. Distinguish the size of the action of each factor. Therefore, the current development of rural areas mainly depends on the income generated by urban development to feed back to the rural areas, and can not carry out its own internal circulation. This is caused by historical conditions and the unique development process of China, which is inevitable. However, in the long run, the widening gap between urban and rural areas makes us unable to satisfy the present situation. We must put forward solutions to enable the economic development of our country to cross this stage as soon as possible, to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas, and to solve the increasingly serious social problems. Therefore, we must make efforts for the transformation of rural economic development structure, reduce the gap as soon as possible, and make the rural areas become the economic model of self-sustainable development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124.7

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

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