【摘要】：人為氣候變化是當今世界的面臨的主要問題之一,其中,全球氣候變暖這一問題異常嚴重,這是由于二氧化碳的排放所導致的。世界各方已達成共識,認為溫室氣體濃度增加是由人類的活動導致的,其中主要包括人口增長、技術革新、政治和經(jīng)濟制度變革,經(jīng)濟活動以及社會發(fā)展。為了緩解溫室效應,國際社會不斷施加壓力,呼吁人類應當努力減少二氧化碳的排放。“京都議定書”和“哥本哈根協(xié)議”標志著全球向低碳經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型的堅定信念。在2005年,中國的碳排放量首次超過美國,成為世界最大的碳排放國。作為主要的二氧化碳排放國,中國政府宣布了“到2020年,我國單位GDP的二氧化碳排放量比2005年下降40%-45%”。基于當前現(xiàn)狀,本文開展了中國碳排放增長分解及減排策略研究。首先,從二氧化碳總體排放情況、各省市二氧化碳排放情況以及各行業(yè)二氧化碳排放情況三個視角分析了我國當前碳排放現(xiàn)狀。其次,研究了導致我國近年來碳排放增長的內(nèi)在驅(qū)動因素。本文運用結構分解分析方法,對基于投入產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)的碳排放增長進行了全面的探討,并從九個方面探討了導致我國近年來碳排放增長的內(nèi)在原因。再次,構建了可計算的一般均衡模型,進一步分析了我國能源結構調(diào)整,能源效率變化以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整對我國經(jīng)濟的影響和減排貢獻。最終,在靜態(tài)CGE模型的基礎上,嵌入環(huán)境模塊和動態(tài)模塊,構建了情景分析,設定了不同的碳稅稅率情景以及不同的稅收返還機制情景,全面模擬了碳稅的影響,并提出了政策建議。本文對我國二氧化碳排放問題的研究以及政策模擬分析所得到的研究結論,對我國實現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排,實現(xiàn)我國對國際社會的減排承諾,以及建立“經(jīng)濟-能源-環(huán)境”的整體政策框架具有一定的理論意義和借鑒意義。同時,為我國政府制定“十三五”規(guī)劃以及減排的一系列政策計劃提供了重要的信息。
[Abstract]:Anthropogenic climate change is one of the main problems facing the world today, among which, the global warming problem is extremely serious, which is caused by the emission of carbon dioxide. There is a consensus around the world that the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is caused by human activities, including population growth, technological innovation, political and economic institutional change, economic activity and social development. To ease Greenhouse Effect, international pressure continues to call for efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accord mark a strong belief in the global transition to a low-carbon economy. In 2005, for the first time, China overtook the United States as the world's largest emitter. As the main emitter of carbon dioxide, the Chinese government announced that "by 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be 40% to 45% lower than in 2005." Based on the current situation, this paper studies the decomposition of carbon emissions and emission reduction strategies in China. Firstly, the present situation of carbon dioxide emissions in China is analyzed from three perspectives: the total carbon dioxide emissions, the carbon dioxide emissions of provinces and cities and the carbon dioxide emissions of various industries. Secondly, the paper studies the internal driving factors of carbon emission growth in China in recent years. In this paper, the growth of carbon emissions based on input-output data is comprehensively discussed by means of structural decomposition analysis, and the internal causes leading to the increase of carbon emissions in China in recent years are discussed from nine aspects. Thirdly, a computable general equilibrium model is constructed, and the effects of energy structure adjustment, energy efficiency change and industrial structure adjustment on China's economy and the contribution to emission reduction are further analyzed. Finally, based on the static CGE model, the environment module and the dynamic module are embedded, the scenario analysis is constructed, the different scenarios of the carbon tax rate and the different tax return mechanism are set up, and the influence of the carbon tax is simulated comprehensively. And put forward the policy suggestion. In this paper, the conclusion of the research on carbon dioxide emissions in China and the policy simulation analysis, to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, to achieve China's commitment to the international community to reduce emissions. And the establishment of "economy-energy-environment" overall policy framework has certain theoretical significance and reference significance. At the same time, it provides important information for our government to formulate the 13th Five-Year Plan and a series of policy plans for emission reduction.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學(北京)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X196;F124.5

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