發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-30 12:01

【摘要】：文章提出了一種數(shù)值方法對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的福利成本進(jìn)行跨國(guó)跨期分析:(1)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的福利成本相當(dāng)大,不支持盧卡斯論斷,而美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的福利成本支持盧卡斯論斷,即經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)不具有重要的福利價(jià)值;(2)中美之間的福利成本差異并非特例,而是具有一般性意義,發(fā)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)整體上位于"具有重要福利價(jià)值"的區(qū)間,發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)整體上位于"不具有重要福利價(jià)值"區(qū)間;(3)當(dāng)高速增長(zhǎng)期結(jié)束后,伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度明顯下降,經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的福利成本也有所下降,但這一階段的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)仍然不支持盧卡斯論斷。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a numerical method is proposed to analyze the welfare costs of economic fluctuations in a cross-temporal manner. (1) the welfare costs of economic fluctuations in China are quite large and do not support Lucas' argument, while the welfare costs of economic fluctuations in the United States support Lucas' argument. That is, economic fluctuation does not have important welfare value; (2) the differences in welfare costs between China and the United States are not exceptional, but of general significance. The economic fluctuations of developing countries as a whole are in the range of "significant welfare value". The economic fluctuation of developed countries as a whole lies in the range of "no significant welfare value"; (3) when the period of high speed growth is over, the welfare cost of economic fluctuation also decreases with the obvious decline of economic growth rate, but the economic fluctuation in this stage still does not support Lucas' conclusion.
【作者單位】： 上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué);
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金“非同步經(jīng)濟(jì)周期下宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的國(guó)際協(xié)調(diào)研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):13BGJ037)
【分類號(hào)】：F113.7

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