高額持有美國(guó)國(guó)債對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)金融影響的實(shí)證分析
[Abstract]:Our foreign exchange reserve assets have been dominated by US dollar assets. Among them, the US Treasury bonds are the main investment direction and the holding of high US Treasuries is the inevitable result of the economic development models of China and the United States. It is the objective requirement of the economic relationship between China and the United States, the internal requirement of the current international fund movement law, and the strategic need of our country's peaceful rise. At the same time, the economies of China and the United States are highly interdependent. About 30 percent of China's foreign exchange reserves are invested in US Treasury bonds. Under the single structure of holding large amounts of foreign exchange reserves in the form of US Treasuries, High U.S. Treasury bond investment is faced with a huge exposure risk, and its impact on China's economy and finance should not be ignored, so it must be highly valued. In this paper, from the perspective of finance, taking the high holdings of US Treasuries as the key point, using the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper analyzes the two transmission paths of quantity and price. From a quantitative point of view: holding US Treasury bonds / money supply / inflation, mainly analyzing the transmission of high holdings of US Treasuries to China's inflation; from the price point of view: holding US Treasury bonds market interest rate / RMB / US dollar bilateral exchange rate. This paper mainly analyzes the transmission of high holdings of US Treasury bonds to the bilateral exchange rate of China's RMB against the US dollar. The paper also points out the inflation risk and RMB exchange rate risk of China's high holdings of US Treasuries, and the empirical analysis of the VAR model further confirms the transmission of inflation and RMB exchange rate. Finally, the paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures from four angles to minimize the risk of high Treasury holdings.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:蘇州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:F832.6;F124
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