【摘要】：我國外匯儲備資產(chǎn)一直以美元資產(chǎn)為主，其中，，又以美國國債為主要投資方向，持有高額的美國國債，是中美兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式的必然結(jié)果，是我國與美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系客觀要求，是當(dāng)前國際資金運動規(guī)律的內(nèi)在要求，也是我國和平崛起的戰(zhàn)略需要。與此同時，中美兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)高度相互依賴，我國外匯儲備約30%以上投資于美國國債，這種大量以美國國債形式持有外匯儲備的單一結(jié)構(gòu)下，高額美國國債投資面臨著巨大的敞口額風(fēng)險，其對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)金融帶來的影響也是不容忽視的，必須高度重視。 本文從金融的視角，以高額持有美國國債為切題點，采用定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法，從數(shù)量和價格兩個傳導(dǎo)路徑進(jìn)行分析，從數(shù)量角度:持有美國國債→貨幣供應(yīng)量→通貨膨脹，主要分析了高額持有美國國債對我國通貨膨脹傳導(dǎo)；從價格角度：持有美國國債→市場利率→人民幣兌美元雙邊匯率，主要分析了高額持有美國國債對我國人民幣兌美元雙邊匯率的傳導(dǎo)，并指出了我國高額持有美國國債的通貨膨脹風(fēng)險和人民幣匯率風(fēng)險，VAR模型的實證分析也進(jìn)一步印證了持有美國國債的通貨膨脹和人民幣匯率的傳導(dǎo)。最后，文章從四個角度提出了相關(guān)的應(yīng)對策略，以最大限度的降低高額持有美國國債的風(fēng)險。
[Abstract]:Our foreign exchange reserve assets have been dominated by US dollar assets. Among them, the US Treasury bonds are the main investment direction and the holding of high US Treasuries is the inevitable result of the economic development models of China and the United States. It is the objective requirement of the economic relationship between China and the United States, the internal requirement of the current international fund movement law, and the strategic need of our country's peaceful rise. At the same time, the economies of China and the United States are highly interdependent. About 30 percent of China's foreign exchange reserves are invested in US Treasury bonds. Under the single structure of holding large amounts of foreign exchange reserves in the form of US Treasuries, High U.S. Treasury bond investment is faced with a huge exposure risk, and its impact on China's economy and finance should not be ignored, so it must be highly valued. In this paper, from the perspective of finance, taking the high holdings of US Treasuries as the key point, using the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper analyzes the two transmission paths of quantity and price. From a quantitative point of view: holding US Treasury bonds / money supply / inflation, mainly analyzing the transmission of high holdings of US Treasuries to China's inflation; from the price point of view: holding US Treasury bonds market interest rate / RMB / US dollar bilateral exchange rate. This paper mainly analyzes the transmission of high holdings of US Treasury bonds to the bilateral exchange rate of China's RMB against the US dollar. The paper also points out the inflation risk and RMB exchange rate risk of China's high holdings of US Treasuries, and the empirical analysis of the VAR model further confirms the transmission of inflation and RMB exchange rate. Finally, the paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures from four angles to minimize the risk of high Treasury holdings.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘇州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F124

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