【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái),隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的發(fā)展,國(guó)際間移民匯款的流動(dòng)愈來(lái)愈活躍,移民匯款逐漸成為發(fā)展中國(guó)家一項(xiàng)非常重要的資本來(lái)源,是僅次于直接投資的第二大資本流動(dòng)。移民匯款規(guī)模的增大,引起了國(guó)際社會(huì)和學(xué)者的關(guān)注與研究。然而目前國(guó)內(nèi)關(guān)于移民匯款與母國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系之間的研究較少,沒(méi)有針對(duì)中國(guó)移民匯款對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)作用進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的剖析。本文在前人基礎(chǔ)上從理論和實(shí)證兩方面對(duì)移民匯款對(duì)母國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的機(jī)制和作用進(jìn)行分析。 理論方面,本文分別從資本積累、勞動(dòng)力增長(zhǎng)、資本積累效率和實(shí)際匯率這四個(gè)渠道入手,厘清移民匯款對(duì)母國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用機(jī)理。 實(shí)證方面,本文先將發(fā)展中國(guó)家作為研究對(duì)象,檢驗(yàn)移民匯款與發(fā)展中國(guó)家之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系,通過(guò)引入金融發(fā)展變量,驗(yàn)證發(fā)展中國(guó)家的移民匯款是否通過(guò)促進(jìn)本國(guó)金融發(fā)展影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。然后本文以中國(guó)作為個(gè)體研究對(duì)象,研究中國(guó)移民匯款與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。在這部分,首先是通過(guò)構(gòu)建影響移民匯款決定因素模型,分析影響中國(guó)移民匯款的因素；接著從簡(jiǎn)化式入手,通過(guò)協(xié)整方程探究移民匯款與中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系；最后引入移民匯款與實(shí)際匯率模型,分析移民匯款是否會(huì)引發(fā)實(shí)際匯率升值,從而帶來(lái)“荷蘭病”問(wèn)題,影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。 本文的主要結(jié)論為：1、在本文的樣本中,移民匯款會(huì)引起發(fā)展中國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)的衰減,但是在不同地區(qū)移民匯款對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生的影響不同。2、中國(guó)移民匯款具有逆周期性,但自私動(dòng)機(jī)是影響移民匯款的主要原因。3、移民匯款在長(zhǎng)期中會(huì)促進(jìn)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。4、移民匯款的流入會(huì)引發(fā)實(shí)際匯率的升值,但升值效應(yīng)在1998年之后有所縮減。移民匯款的流入會(huì)產(chǎn)生資源轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng),不可貿(mào)易部門產(chǎn)出增加,可貿(mào)易部門產(chǎn)出減少。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the development of economic globalization, the flow of international migrant remittances has become more and more active, and migrant remittances have gradually become a very important source of capital for developing countries. It is the second largest capital flow after direct investment. The increase in the scale of migrant remittances has attracted the attention and research of the international community and scholars. However, there are few studies on the relationship between migrant remittances and the economic growth of home countries, and there is no systematic analysis of the effect of Chinese migrant remittances on economic growth. On the basis of predecessors, this paper analyzes the mechanism and effect of migrant remittances on the economic growth of home countries from both theoretical and empirical aspects. Theoretically, this paper starts with the four channels of capital accumulation, labor force growth, capital accumulation efficiency and real exchange rate, and clarifies the mechanism of the effect of migrant remittances on the economic growth of home country. In the empirical aspect, this paper first takes the developing countries as the research object, tests the relationship between the migrant remittances and the economic growth of the developing countries, and introduces the financial development variables. Test whether migrant remittances from developing countries affect economic growth by promoting their own financial development. Then this paper takes China as an individual research object to study the relationship between Chinese migrant remittances and economic growth. In this part, first of all, by constructing the determinant factor model of migrant remittances, the paper analyzes the factors that affect Chinese migrant remittances, and then explores the long-term relationship between migrant remittances and China's economic growth through cointegration equation. Finally, the paper introduces the model of migrant remittance and real exchange rate, and analyzes whether the migrant remittance will lead to the appreciation of real exchange rate, which will bring about the problem of "Dutch disease" and affect the economic growth. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1, in the sample of this paper, migrant remittances will cause economic decline in developing countries, but the impact of migrant remittances on economic growth is different in different regions. 2. But selfish motivation is the main reason for affecting migrant remittances. 3. In the long run, migrant remittances will promote the growth of Chinese economy. 4. The inflow of migrant remittances will lead to the appreciation of the real exchange rate, but the effect of appreciation will be reduced after 1998. The inflow of migrant remittances has a resource transfer effect, non-tradable sector output increases and tradable sector output decreases.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F124.1

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本文編號(hào)：2273141