中國人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)演變與居民消費問題研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-04 23:31
【摘要】：改革開放以來，中國經(jīng)濟連續(xù)30多年保持平均10%的高速增長勢頭，特別是世界性的金融危機以來，拉動世界經(jīng)濟走出低谷的強勁動力逐漸向以中國作為代表的新興市場國家靠攏。然而，在經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展的同時，我國的居民消費率卻呈現(xiàn)出長期下降的趨勢，并已經(jīng)成為阻礙我國經(jīng)濟增長方式由外需拉動到內(nèi)需拉動轉(zhuǎn)型的頑疾。在目前中國經(jīng)濟面臨一系列結(jié)構(gòu)性失衡問題的背景下，尋求國內(nèi)消費增長緩慢的原因以及破解之道成為極具現(xiàn)實意義的研究課題。所以，本文以中國人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)演變?yōu)榍腥朦c，從理論和實證兩個方面分析研究了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)演變與居民消費的關(guān)系，以期對我國未來政策的制定提供一定的基礎(chǔ)和依據(jù)。 首先，文章對國內(nèi)外人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)與居民消費關(guān)系的文獻進行了梳理，據(jù)以作為后續(xù)研究的理論和技術(shù)支持。接下來闡述了人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)影響居民消費率的理論基礎(chǔ)和作用途徑，并結(jié)合我國建國以來的實際，總結(jié)、概括了我國60多年來人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的歷史演變過程、特點及發(fā)展趨勢，，同時，運用縱向歷史比較法和橫向國際比較法，對比分析了當(dāng)前我國居民消費走低的現(xiàn)狀及變化。 其次，文章在對相關(guān)理論和指標(biāo)進行比較的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了較為合理的動態(tài)面板計量模型，并運用GMM估計方法從全國、東中西地區(qū)以及城鄉(xiāng)三個方面對中國1998~2011年31個省、市、自治區(qū)的人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)演變與居民消費的演變關(guān)系進行了實證研究。對全國的分析表明，少年兒童撫養(yǎng)比的下降顯著減少了居民消費率，而老年人口撫養(yǎng)比的上升也使居民消費率顯著降低。對東、中、西部地區(qū)的分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，少年兒童撫養(yǎng)比對東、西部地區(qū)均有顯著正的影響，比較而言，對西部的影響程度最大，東部次之；老年人口撫養(yǎng)比對東、西部地區(qū)均有顯著負的影響，比較而言，對東部的影響程度最大，西部次之；兩個撫養(yǎng)比對中部地區(qū)的影響均不顯著。繼而分城鎮(zhèn)、農(nóng)村的估計結(jié)果和全國基本一致，即少年兒童撫養(yǎng)比對城鄉(xiāng)居民消費率均有顯著正的影響，但對農(nóng)村居民的影響程度大于城鎮(zhèn)；老年人口撫養(yǎng)比對城鄉(xiāng)居民消費率均有顯著負的影響，比較而言，對城鎮(zhèn)居民消費率的影響程度略大于農(nóng)村。 最后，在理論分析和實證結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上，提出如下對策建議：轉(zhuǎn)變居民消費觀念，矯正傳統(tǒng)的落后思維模式，引導(dǎo)居民合理消費；鼓勵經(jīng)濟較發(fā)達且老齡化程度較高的地區(qū)率先放寬計劃生育政策；完善養(yǎng)老保險、醫(yī)療保險和貧困救助等社會保障制度，做到老有所養(yǎng)；積極發(fā)展居民消費信貸，豐富信貸品種，滿足不同年齡階段人群的消費需求。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained an average rapid growth momentum of 10% for more than 30 consecutive years, especially since the world financial crisis. The strong drive to pull the world economy out of the doldrums is drawing closer to emerging markets represented by China. However, with the rapid development of economy, the resident consumption rate of our country has been declining for a long time, and has become a persistent disease that hinders the transformation from external demand to domestic demand. Under the background that China's economy is facing a series of structural imbalance problems, it is of great practical significance to seek the reasons for the slow growth of domestic consumption and to solve the problem. Therefore, this paper takes the evolution of Chinese population age structure as the breakthrough point, analyzes and studies the relationship between the evolution of population age structure and residents' consumption from both theoretical and empirical aspects, in order to provide a certain basis and basis for the formulation of future policies in China. Firstly, the paper combs the literature on the relationship between the age structure of the population and the consumption of the residents at home and abroad, as the theoretical and technical support for the follow-up study. Then, the paper expounds the theoretical basis and action ways of the age structure of the population affecting the consumption rate of residents, and summarizes the historical evolution process, characteristics and development trend of the age structure of the population in China in the past 60 years in combination with the reality since the founding of the people's Republic of China. At the same time, by using the vertical historical comparison method and the horizontal international comparison method, this paper compares and analyzes the current situation and changes of the residents' consumption decline in our country. Secondly, on the basis of comparison of relevant theories and indicators, this paper establishes a more reasonable dynamic panel measurement model, and applies GMM estimation method to 31 provinces and cities in China from 1998 to 2011 from three aspects: national, eastern, western, and urban and rural areas. The relationship between the evolution of the population age structure and the consumption of residents in the autonomous region is studied empirically. The analysis of the whole country shows that the decrease of the dependency ratio of children and adolescents has significantly reduced the consumption rate of the residents, and the increase of the dependency ratio of the elderly population has also significantly reduced the consumption rate of the residents. An analysis of the eastern, middle and western regions found that the ratio of children to children in the east had a significant positive impact on the western region. Comparatively speaking, the degree of influence on the western region was the greatest, followed by the eastern part; the elderly population was brought up to the east. There were significant negative effects in the western region, the degree of influence was the biggest in the east, the second was in the west, and the influence of the two dependency ratios was not significant in the central region. Then the estimated results of rural areas are basically consistent with that of the whole country, that is, the ratio of raising children to children has a significant positive effect on the consumption rate of urban and rural residents, but the degree of influence on rural residents is greater than that on urban and rural residents. The dependency ratio of the elderly population has a significant negative effect on the consumption rate of urban and rural residents, and the influence on the consumption rate of urban residents is slightly greater than that of rural residents. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical results, the following suggestions are put forward: to change the residents' consumption concept, correct the traditional backward thinking mode, and guide the residents to consume reasonably; Encouraging regions with more developed economies and a higher degree of ageing to take the lead in relaxing family planning policies; improving social security systems such as old-age insurance, medical insurance and poverty relief; and actively developing consumer credit for the elderly. Enrich the variety of credit to meet the consumer demand of people of different ages.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：C924.24;F126
本文編號：2252315
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained an average rapid growth momentum of 10% for more than 30 consecutive years, especially since the world financial crisis. The strong drive to pull the world economy out of the doldrums is drawing closer to emerging markets represented by China. However, with the rapid development of economy, the resident consumption rate of our country has been declining for a long time, and has become a persistent disease that hinders the transformation from external demand to domestic demand. Under the background that China's economy is facing a series of structural imbalance problems, it is of great practical significance to seek the reasons for the slow growth of domestic consumption and to solve the problem. Therefore, this paper takes the evolution of Chinese population age structure as the breakthrough point, analyzes and studies the relationship between the evolution of population age structure and residents' consumption from both theoretical and empirical aspects, in order to provide a certain basis and basis for the formulation of future policies in China. Firstly, the paper combs the literature on the relationship between the age structure of the population and the consumption of the residents at home and abroad, as the theoretical and technical support for the follow-up study. Then, the paper expounds the theoretical basis and action ways of the age structure of the population affecting the consumption rate of residents, and summarizes the historical evolution process, characteristics and development trend of the age structure of the population in China in the past 60 years in combination with the reality since the founding of the people's Republic of China. At the same time, by using the vertical historical comparison method and the horizontal international comparison method, this paper compares and analyzes the current situation and changes of the residents' consumption decline in our country. Secondly, on the basis of comparison of relevant theories and indicators, this paper establishes a more reasonable dynamic panel measurement model, and applies GMM estimation method to 31 provinces and cities in China from 1998 to 2011 from three aspects: national, eastern, western, and urban and rural areas. The relationship between the evolution of the population age structure and the consumption of residents in the autonomous region is studied empirically. The analysis of the whole country shows that the decrease of the dependency ratio of children and adolescents has significantly reduced the consumption rate of the residents, and the increase of the dependency ratio of the elderly population has also significantly reduced the consumption rate of the residents. An analysis of the eastern, middle and western regions found that the ratio of children to children in the east had a significant positive impact on the western region. Comparatively speaking, the degree of influence on the western region was the greatest, followed by the eastern part; the elderly population was brought up to the east. There were significant negative effects in the western region, the degree of influence was the biggest in the east, the second was in the west, and the influence of the two dependency ratios was not significant in the central region. Then the estimated results of rural areas are basically consistent with that of the whole country, that is, the ratio of raising children to children has a significant positive effect on the consumption rate of urban and rural residents, but the degree of influence on rural residents is greater than that on urban and rural residents. The dependency ratio of the elderly population has a significant negative effect on the consumption rate of urban and rural residents, and the influence on the consumption rate of urban residents is slightly greater than that of rural residents. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical results, the following suggestions are put forward: to change the residents' consumption concept, correct the traditional backward thinking mode, and guide the residents to consume reasonably; Encouraging regions with more developed economies and a higher degree of ageing to take the lead in relaxing family planning policies; improving social security systems such as old-age insurance, medical insurance and poverty relief; and actively developing consumer credit for the elderly. Enrich the variety of credit to meet the consumer demand of people of different ages.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：C924.24;F126
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