【摘要】：京津冀地區(qū)是中國重要的人口集聚區(qū)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長極,在京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展的背景下研究京津冀地區(qū)人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展關(guān)系,對于促進(jìn)區(qū)域內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要意義。本文基于京津冀地區(qū)2000-2010年各區(qū)(縣)和2000-2014年各城市的人口、GDP數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用人口—經(jīng)濟(jì)增長彈性、地理集中度、不一致指數(shù)、重心分析等方法探究京津冀地區(qū)人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展關(guān)系,結(jié)果表明:1在總量規(guī)模上,京津冀地區(qū)整體人口增長與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的協(xié)調(diào)度較高,但各城市人口增長與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的協(xié)調(diào)度存在較大差異。2在空間分布上,從地理集中度來看,京津冀地區(qū)人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)地理集中度均呈現(xiàn)北部低、中南部高的分布特征,其中北京、天津經(jīng)濟(jì)地理集中度高于人口地理集中度,河北多數(shù)城市人口地理集中度高于經(jīng)濟(jì)地理集中度;從重心來看,京津冀地區(qū)整體的人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)重心都向東北方向移動,且經(jīng)濟(jì)重心的移動幅度大于人口重心,2個重心偏離距離不斷加大,此外各城市的人口重心與經(jīng)濟(jì)重心也出現(xiàn)不同程度的分離。最后,提出了促進(jìn)京津冀地區(qū)人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is an important population agglomeration area and economic growth pole in China. It is of great significance to study the coordinated development of population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under the background of the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to promote the sustainable development of the regional economy. Based on the population GDP data of the districts (counties) and cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2010, this paper applies the population-economic growth elasticity, geographical concentration and inconsistent index. The relationship between population and economy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is studied by means of gravity analysis. The results show that the coordination degree between population growth and economic growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is higher than that in the total size of the population of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In terms of geographical concentration, the population and economic geographical concentration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are all low in the north and high in the central and southern part of the region. The degree of economic geographical concentration in Tianjin is higher than that in population geography, and the geographical concentration in most cities in Hebei is higher than that in economic geography. From the perspective of the center of gravity, the overall population and economic center of gravity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is moving to the northeast. The moving range of economic center of gravity is larger than that of population center of gravity, and the deviation distance of two centers of gravity is increasing, in addition, the population center of gravity and economic center of gravity of each city also appear different degrees of separation. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the harmonious development of population and economy in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)政府管理學(xué)院;京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展聯(lián)合創(chuàng)新中心;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41671120,41601117) 國家社會科學(xué)基金青年項目(15CJY055)~~
【分類號】：C924.2;F127

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