基于拉姆齊模型的低碳技術(shù)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響機(jī)理研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-14 18:16
【摘要】：新常態(tài)下,中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,一方面面臨著增長速度的放緩,另一方面資源約束與氣候問題變得日益緊迫。中國既要保持一定的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度,又要應(yīng)對氣候變化帶來的挑戰(zhàn),在此雙重壓力下,尋求合理的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型路徑迫在眉睫。面對碳減排承諾與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的雙重約束,低碳技術(shù)的研發(fā)與有效利用可能將成為在碳排放約束下實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)的有效手段。因此,深入探索低碳技術(shù)對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的內(nèi)在影響機(jī)理,進(jìn)而為我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型提供理論指導(dǎo),最終促進(jìn)我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。本文首先對低碳技術(shù)、低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相關(guān)研究進(jìn)行了梳理與評述;其次,分析了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與碳排放的現(xiàn)狀與聯(lián)系,并與發(fā)達(dá)國家以及世界平均水平進(jìn)行了對比研究;再次,論述了低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)與低碳技術(shù)的內(nèi)涵,對低碳技術(shù)進(jìn)行分類,并據(jù)此提出相應(yīng)的楔形減排方案;復(fù)次,基于微觀消費行為最優(yōu)化基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合拉姆齊模型就低碳技術(shù)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析。一方面,借助顯示性偏好理論,給出在碳減排約束下,低碳技術(shù)使得消費貼現(xiàn)率下降的一個經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)解釋,然后基于拉姆齊經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型建立了低碳技術(shù)通過對消費者行為最優(yōu)化,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的微觀基礎(chǔ)。另一方面,綜合分析給出低碳技術(shù)從生產(chǎn)與消費兩大路徑對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用機(jī)理;最后,就低碳技術(shù)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響給出實證檢驗,并針對如何發(fā)展低碳技術(shù)推動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。論文的理論與實證分析結(jié)果表明:(1)我國在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩與自主碳減排承諾的雙重壓力下,低碳技術(shù)的發(fā)展與利用將成為我國未來經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)增長的決定性因素。(2)低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起始階段,碳減排的硬約束會對經(jīng)濟(jì)造成一定的擠出效應(yīng),使得經(jīng)濟(jì)增長面臨暫時的困難。(3)長期來看,低碳技術(shù)的發(fā)展在解決碳排放問題的同時,一方面對生產(chǎn)的推動效應(yīng)將戰(zhàn)勝擠出效應(yīng),另一方面通過影響消費者效用貼現(xiàn)率以及行為選擇,對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生促進(jìn)作用。(4)在碳排放約束下,低碳技術(shù)相對于一般性的技術(shù),由于其可能帶來的對人類行為選擇的影響,其對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的促進(jìn)作用相對更具有可持續(xù)性。根據(jù)本文的研究結(jié)論,筆者在最后針對碳減排約束下,為保持經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長提出相關(guān)政策建議。如逐步從對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展高增長的依賴,轉(zhuǎn)為對高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長質(zhì)量的依賴;針對低碳技術(shù)所處階段的不同,采用相應(yīng)的差異化政策;加大碳減排層面的國際低碳技術(shù)合作,同時加強(qiáng)國內(nèi)低碳技術(shù)創(chuàng)新;注重生產(chǎn)性減排的同時,進(jìn)一步重視消費性減排;加快推進(jìn)、落實碳稅征收相關(guān)工作;加快轉(zhuǎn)變政府職能,盡快完善碳排放權(quán)市場交易體系,充分發(fā)揮市場在低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中的決定性作用。
[Abstract]:Under the new normal, China's economic growth is facing a slowdown on the one hand, on the other hand, resource constraints and climate problems become increasingly urgent. China has to maintain a certain rate of economic growth, but also to meet the challenges posed by climate change. Under this dual pressure, it is urgent to seek a reasonable path of economic transformation. Faced with the dual constraints of carbon emission reduction commitment and economic growth, the research and development and effective utilization of low-carbon technology may become an effective means to achieve economic growth under carbon emission constraints. Therefore, the internal influence mechanism of low-carbon technology on economic development is deeply explored, which will provide theoretical guidance for China's economic transformation and ultimately promote the economic growth of our country. In this paper, firstly, the research on low-carbon technology, low-carbon economy and economic growth are reviewed and reviewed; secondly, the current situation and relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in China are analyzed. And compared with the developed countries and the world average level. Thirdly, it discusses the connotation of low-carbon economy and low-carbon technology, classifies low-carbon technology, and puts forward the corresponding wedge-shaped emission reduction scheme. Based on the optimization of micro consumption behavior and Ramsey model, the influence mechanism of low carbon technology on economic growth is analyzed. On the one hand, with the aid of the theory of indicative preference, an economic explanation is given that low carbon technology can reduce the discount rate of consumption under the constraint of carbon emission reduction. Then, based on Ramsey's economic growth model, the micro basis of low carbon technology to promote economic growth by optimizing consumer behavior is established. On the other hand, it gives the mechanism of low carbon technology acting on economic growth from production and consumption. Finally, it gives an empirical test on the impact of low carbon technology on economic growth. Some policy suggestions on how to develop low-carbon technology to promote economic growth are put forward. The theoretical and empirical results show that: (1) China is under the dual pressure of economic growth slowdown and independent carbon emission reduction commitment. The development and utilization of low-carbon technology will be the decisive factor of stable economic growth in the future in China. (2) in the initial stage of low-carbon economy development, the hard constraint of carbon emission reduction will cause a certain crowding out effect on the economy. It makes economic growth face temporary difficulties. (3) in the long run, the development of low-carbon technologies will not only solve the problem of carbon emissions, but also, on the one hand, promote production and defeat the crowding out effect. On the other hand, it promotes the economy by influencing consumer utility discount rate and behavior choice. (4) under carbon emission constraint, low carbon technology is relative to general technology, because of its possible impact on human behavior choice. Its contribution to economic output is relatively more sustainable. According to the conclusion of this paper, the author puts forward some policy suggestions to maintain stable economic growth under the constraint of carbon emission reduction. For example, gradually shifting from dependence on high growth in economic development to reliance on high quality of economic growth; adopting corresponding differentiated policies for different stages of low-carbon technologies; and increasing international low-carbon technology cooperation at the level of carbon emission reduction, At the same time, strengthen the domestic low-carbon technology innovation; pay attention to the productive emission reduction, at the same time, pay more attention to the consumption emission reduction; accelerate the implementation of carbon tax collection related work; accelerate the transformation of government functions, and improve the carbon emissions rights market trading system as soon as possible. Give full play to the market in the development of low-carbon economy in the decisive role.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X22;F124
本文編號：2243491
[Abstract]:Under the new normal, China's economic growth is facing a slowdown on the one hand, on the other hand, resource constraints and climate problems become increasingly urgent. China has to maintain a certain rate of economic growth, but also to meet the challenges posed by climate change. Under this dual pressure, it is urgent to seek a reasonable path of economic transformation. Faced with the dual constraints of carbon emission reduction commitment and economic growth, the research and development and effective utilization of low-carbon technology may become an effective means to achieve economic growth under carbon emission constraints. Therefore, the internal influence mechanism of low-carbon technology on economic development is deeply explored, which will provide theoretical guidance for China's economic transformation and ultimately promote the economic growth of our country. In this paper, firstly, the research on low-carbon technology, low-carbon economy and economic growth are reviewed and reviewed; secondly, the current situation and relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in China are analyzed. And compared with the developed countries and the world average level. Thirdly, it discusses the connotation of low-carbon economy and low-carbon technology, classifies low-carbon technology, and puts forward the corresponding wedge-shaped emission reduction scheme. Based on the optimization of micro consumption behavior and Ramsey model, the influence mechanism of low carbon technology on economic growth is analyzed. On the one hand, with the aid of the theory of indicative preference, an economic explanation is given that low carbon technology can reduce the discount rate of consumption under the constraint of carbon emission reduction. Then, based on Ramsey's economic growth model, the micro basis of low carbon technology to promote economic growth by optimizing consumer behavior is established. On the other hand, it gives the mechanism of low carbon technology acting on economic growth from production and consumption. Finally, it gives an empirical test on the impact of low carbon technology on economic growth. Some policy suggestions on how to develop low-carbon technology to promote economic growth are put forward. The theoretical and empirical results show that: (1) China is under the dual pressure of economic growth slowdown and independent carbon emission reduction commitment. The development and utilization of low-carbon technology will be the decisive factor of stable economic growth in the future in China. (2) in the initial stage of low-carbon economy development, the hard constraint of carbon emission reduction will cause a certain crowding out effect on the economy. It makes economic growth face temporary difficulties. (3) in the long run, the development of low-carbon technologies will not only solve the problem of carbon emissions, but also, on the one hand, promote production and defeat the crowding out effect. On the other hand, it promotes the economy by influencing consumer utility discount rate and behavior choice. (4) under carbon emission constraint, low carbon technology is relative to general technology, because of its possible impact on human behavior choice. Its contribution to economic output is relatively more sustainable. According to the conclusion of this paper, the author puts forward some policy suggestions to maintain stable economic growth under the constraint of carbon emission reduction. For example, gradually shifting from dependence on high growth in economic development to reliance on high quality of economic growth; adopting corresponding differentiated policies for different stages of low-carbon technologies; and increasing international low-carbon technology cooperation at the level of carbon emission reduction, At the same time, strengthen the domestic low-carbon technology innovation; pay attention to the productive emission reduction, at the same time, pay more attention to the consumption emission reduction; accelerate the implementation of carbon tax collection related work; accelerate the transformation of government functions, and improve the carbon emissions rights market trading system as soon as possible. Give full play to the market in the development of low-carbon economy in the decisive role.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X22;F124
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