【摘要】：人口是經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的重要因素之一,多年來隨著我國計劃生育政策效果的逐漸顯現(xiàn),當(dāng)前人口發(fā)展的主要矛盾已由人口數(shù)量轉(zhuǎn)向人口結(jié)構(gòu)。嚴重少子化、快速老齡化、勞動力供給不足、性別比失衡等人口結(jié)構(gòu)問題已經(jīng)成為我國經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展的主要制約因素。人口結(jié)構(gòu)的均衡化有利于促進經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展及社會穩(wěn)定;人口結(jié)構(gòu)的扭曲將制約社會經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的布局、削弱經(jīng)濟發(fā)展動力。因此,必須對人口結(jié)構(gòu)與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的內(nèi)在關(guān)系進行深入研究,進而為二者相互協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提供理科學(xué)的理論依據(jù)。本文通過甘肅省人口總量、性別結(jié)構(gòu)、年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)及文化結(jié)構(gòu)的演變,分析甘肅省人口結(jié)構(gòu)空間分布差異特征。根據(jù)甘肅省獨特的地理環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展條件,運用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析模型,對甘肅省人口結(jié)構(gòu)與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系進行定量研究,同時分析其耦合關(guān)系的時空差異特征,最后就甘肅省人口結(jié)構(gòu)與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提出對策建議。本文得出的主要結(jié)論如下:(1)甘肅省人口分布具有極強的空間依賴性,并呈現(xiàn)明顯的空間集聚與不均衡性;人口性別結(jié)構(gòu)相對穩(wěn)定;年齡結(jié)構(gòu)失衡,少兒人口減少,老齡化加速,以快速淺度老齡化和慢速淺度老齡化區(qū)域為主,老年人口分布呈現(xiàn)地域差異性;人口城鎮(zhèn)化進程加快,但與全國水平差距較大,以低人口城鎮(zhèn)化與中低人口城鎮(zhèn)化為主,且縣域空間差異明顯;人口產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)分布更加合理;人口文化教育水平顯著增強,人口綜合質(zhì)量穩(wěn)步提升。(2)甘肅省人口結(jié)構(gòu)對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)各指標間的關(guān)聯(lián)度均高于0.75,屬于中度及高度關(guān)聯(lián);其中中老年人口、勞動力人口、大專及以上學(xué)歷人口、第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)人口、城鎮(zhèn)人口對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的關(guān)聯(lián)度均高于0.85,屬于高度關(guān)聯(lián)。區(qū)域經(jīng)濟指標對人口結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)聯(lián)度高于0.80,屬于中度偏高關(guān)聯(lián),經(jīng)濟促進人口結(jié)構(gòu)的進一步優(yōu)化。(3)甘肅省縣域人口結(jié)構(gòu)與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟綜合耦合度存在明顯空間差異;2000年到2014年其耦合程度由低水平耦合向協(xié)調(diào)型耦合發(fā)展;但中部與河西地區(qū)拮抗型區(qū)域逐漸增多,人口結(jié)構(gòu)與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的相互制約呈現(xiàn)加強趨勢。(4)從1994年到2014年,甘肅省人口結(jié)構(gòu)與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟耦合度在時序0.795與0.863之間波動;表現(xiàn)為由低水平耦合向協(xié)調(diào)和拮抗型發(fā)展,人口與經(jīng)濟相互依賴性進一步加強。
[Abstract]:Population is one of the important factors of economic and social development. With the gradual appearance of the effect of family planning policy in China for many years, the main contradiction of population development has shifted from population quantity to population structure. The balance of population structure is conducive to the rapid development of economy and social stability; the distortion of population structure will restrict the distribution of social economic structure and weaken the motive force of economic development. Based on the evolution of population, sex structure, age structure, urban-rural structure, industrial structure and cultural structure in Gansu Province, this paper analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of population structure in Gansu Province. This paper makes a quantitative study of the relationship between population structure and regional economy in Su Province, and analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of the coupling relationship. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions on the coordinated development of population structure and regional economy in Gansu Province. Agglomeration and imbalance; population gender structure is relatively stable; age structure is unbalanced, the population of children is reduced, and aging is accelerated, mainly in areas of rapid shallow aging and slow shallow aging, and the distribution of the elderly population shows regional differences; the process of population urbanization is accelerated, but there is a big gap with the national level, with low-population Urbanization and moderate to low-population urbanization. The low population urbanization is dominant, and the county spatial difference is obvious; the distribution of population industrial structure is more reasonable; the level of population culture and education is significantly enhanced, and the comprehensive quality of population is steadily improved. (2) The correlation degree between population structure of Gansu Province and various indicators of regional economic system is higher than 0.75, which belongs to moderate and high correlation; the middle-aged and elderly population, labor. Secondly, the population of tertiary industry and urban population are highly related to the regional economy. The correlation degree of regional economic indicators to the population structure is higher than 0.80, which is moderately high. Economy promotes the further optimization of population structure. (3) The population structure of county and regional economy in Gansu Province From 2000 to 2014, the coupling degree of Gansu Province changed from low-level coupling to coordinated coupling. However, the antagonistic regions in the central and Hexi regions increased gradually, and the mutual restriction between population structure and regional economic development showed a trend of strengthening. (4) From 1994 to 2014, the population structure and regional economic development in Gansu Province were strengthened. Coupling degree fluctuates between 0.795 and 0.863 in time series, which shows the development from low level coupling to coordination and antagonism, and the interdependence between population and economy is further strengthened.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.2;F127

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