【摘要】：十一屆三中全會(huì)以來(lái),國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)發(fā)展,但是就業(yè)仍然存在很大的問(wèn)題。由于近年我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入新常態(tài),國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)處于下滑狀態(tài),特別是對(duì)于東北老工業(yè)基地來(lái)說(shuō),隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入新常態(tài),支撐東北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的工業(yè)發(fā)展出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題,作為新中國(guó)重工業(yè)的發(fā)源地,東北地區(qū)受制于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)單一,抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、抗市場(chǎng)沖擊能力較弱等因素影響,近幾年發(fā)展遇到重大問(wèn)題。雪上加霜的是,經(jīng)濟(jì)的低迷讓這塊“重工業(yè)基地”的就業(yè)形勢(shì)復(fù)雜而嚴(yán)峻。而就業(yè)的發(fā)展離不開(kāi)東北經(jīng)濟(jì)和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整等因素的影響,為了促進(jìn)東北地區(qū)就業(yè),本文在分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。本文選定的范圍是遼寧省,針對(duì)遼寧省這樣一個(gè)人口大省,能不能解決好就業(yè)問(wèn)題,關(guān)系著東北老工業(yè)基地振興目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)。文章先對(duì)遼寧省結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析,包括了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),了解了遼寧省的結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀,接著對(duì)遼寧省產(chǎn)業(yè)與就業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)相互影響進(jìn)行分析,一方面運(yùn)用相關(guān)關(guān)系指標(biāo)分析二者關(guān)系,指標(biāo)包括相關(guān)系數(shù)指標(biāo)、結(jié)構(gòu)偏離度指標(biāo)和就業(yè)彈性指標(biāo)。另一方面運(yùn)用協(xié)整半對(duì)數(shù)線性回歸分析遼寧省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)進(jìn)而對(duì)就業(yè)產(chǎn)生的影響,然后對(duì)遼寧省的就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),這個(gè)前提是文章先對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),從分析結(jié)果來(lái)看,遼寧省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整對(duì)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)具有一定的影響,遼寧省經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)主要還是靠著第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的拉動(dòng)作用,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展具有支撐作用,而隨著不斷的結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,遼寧省第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)起到了吸納第一產(chǎn)業(yè)剩余勞動(dòng)力的作用,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)雖然對(duì)吸納勞動(dòng)力起著一定的作用,但是發(fā)展后勁不足,仍然需要進(jìn)一步的完善。從就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的預(yù)測(cè)中可以看出來(lái),隨著遼寧省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的不斷調(diào)整,到“十三五”時(shí)期預(yù)測(cè)出的就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)有一定的改善,其中第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)比重降落,二產(chǎn)也有所回落,三產(chǎn)在吸納從業(yè)人數(shù)起著重要的作用。本文的創(chuàng)新之處有兩點(diǎn),一是本論文在分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)時(shí),運(yùn)用產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)方向和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)速度這兩個(gè)指標(biāo);二是在對(duì)遼寧省就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)時(shí),是以產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的視角下作的,以往的論文很少在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的視角下分析。
[Abstract]:Since the third Plenary session of the Eleventh Central Committee, the country's economy has continued to develop, but there are still a lot of problems in employment. As the economic development of our country has entered the new normal in recent years, the national economy is in a state of decline, especially for the old industrial bases in the Northeast, as the economy enters the new normal, the industrial development that supports the economic development in the Northeast region has problems. As the birthplace of heavy industry in New China, Northeast China is subject to the influence of single industrial structure, anti-risk and weak ability to resist market impact. In recent years, the development of Northeast China has encountered major problems. To make matters worse, the economic downturn has complicated the employment situation in this heavy industrial base. The development of employment can not be separated from the influence of economic and structural adjustment in Northeast China. In order to promote employment in Northeast China, this paper forecasts the structure of employment on the basis of analyzing the changes of industrial structure. The scope of this paper is Liaoning Province. Whether or not we can solve the problem of employment is related to the realization of the goal of revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China. The article first analyzes the present situation of Liaoning Province's structure, including industrial structure and employment structure, then analyzes the interaction between industry and employment structure in Liaoning Province. On the one hand, the relationship between them is analyzed by using the correlation relation index, which includes the correlation coefficient index, the structure deviation index and the employment elasticity index. On the other hand, by using cointegration semi-logarithmic linear regression analysis, the influence of the change of industrial structure on employment in Liaoning Province is analyzed, and then the employment structure of Liaoning Province is forecasted. This premise is that the article first forecasts the industrial structure. From the analysis results, the adjustment of the industrial structure of Liaoning Province has a certain impact on the employment structure. The economic growth of Liaoning Province mainly depends on the pull role of the secondary industry, which has a supporting role to the economic development. With the continuous structural adjustment, the secondary and tertiary industries in Liaoning Province have played a role in absorbing surplus labor force in the primary industry. Although the tertiary industry has played a certain role in absorbing the labor force, it has not developed with sufficient stamina. Further improvement is still needed. From the forecast of the employment structure, it can be seen that with the continuous adjustment of the industrial structure in Liaoning Province, the employment structure predicted during the 13th Five-Year Plan period has improved to a certain extent, in which the employment proportion of the primary industry has declined, and the secondary industry has also fallen back. Three industries in the absorption of the number of employees play an important role. There are two innovations in this paper. One is that this paper applies the two indexes of industrial structure change direction and industrial structure change speed when analyzing the change of industrial structure, and the other is forecasting the employment structure of Liaoning Province. It is made from the perspective of industrial structure change, and few of the previous papers are analyzed from the perspective of industrial structure change.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;F249.27

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本文編號(hào)：2196086