中國城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)理性與消費(fèi)增長路徑選擇的實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-19 20:39
【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)步入轉(zhuǎn)軌時期,市場機(jī)制逐步完善,市場化程度日漸加深,與之相適應(yīng)的是經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長與居民收入、福利水平的不斷提高。隨著市場經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的不斷深入,中國城鄉(xiāng)居民面臨的不確定性大量涌現(xiàn),尤其是在教育、醫(yī)療、養(yǎng)老等制度方面的改革使得個體承擔(dān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險日漸增加,居民消費(fèi)謹(jǐn)慎程度逐漸增強(qiáng),與之相伴隨的是消費(fèi)持續(xù)緩慢增長的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象。就這一現(xiàn)象產(chǎn)生的原因,習(xí)慣形成理論框架可以較好的解釋。這是因為,習(xí)慣形成類似于一種謹(jǐn)慎行為,較強(qiáng)的習(xí)慣形成會帶來較低的邊際消費(fèi)傾向,同時它能夠減少不確定性對消費(fèi)的影響,并會最終導(dǎo)致更低的當(dāng)期消費(fèi)和更高的儲蓄(1)。習(xí)慣形成理論中效用不僅來源于當(dāng)期消費(fèi),還要受到由以往消費(fèi)累積的習(xí)慣存量的影響。具有習(xí)慣形成的消費(fèi)者更加貼近現(xiàn)實,正是如此,習(xí)慣形成下過多的重復(fù)消費(fèi)會令消費(fèi)者感到厭煩,從而帶來效用損失,降低滿足程度。緩慢的消費(fèi)增長并不意味著較少的滿足,消費(fèi)者獲得的滿足多少反映了其消費(fèi)行為的理性程度。消費(fèi)理性說明消費(fèi)者已經(jīng)適應(yīng)形成已久的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境并得以滿足,因而對短期政策沖擊反應(yīng)遲鈍。然而,消費(fèi)理性狀態(tài)并非持久不變,理性消費(fèi)者會依據(jù)周圍條件的改善調(diào)整習(xí)慣形成,并令其消費(fèi)逐漸達(dá)到具有更大滿足的新理性。由此若消費(fèi)是理性的,促進(jìn)消費(fèi)增長應(yīng)立足于長期,從改善整體經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)上尋求解決途徑。若消費(fèi)理性程度偏低,提高收入、降低流動性約束等短期刺激總需求的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策仍可以有效地幫助緩解習(xí)慣形成,促進(jìn)消費(fèi)增長。因而消費(fèi)理性與否將為我們進(jìn)一步制定有針對性的促進(jìn)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)增長進(jìn)而帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長的政策建議提供理論依據(jù),同時也可以為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長做出貢獻(xiàn)的總需求經(jīng)濟(jì)政策在近年來表現(xiàn)乏力提供一種解釋(2)�；诹�(xí)慣形成視角研究居民消費(fèi)問題,國內(nèi)目前尚處于初級階段,而在這一視角下研究消費(fèi)理性問題更屬少數(shù)。本文在習(xí)慣形成理論框架下實證研究中國城鄉(xiāng)居民1995-2014年消費(fèi)理性問題,涵蓋消費(fèi)理性檢驗,影響消費(fèi)理性形成的原因分析等,進(jìn)一步提出適于我國城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)增長的路徑選擇。全文共分為四個部分,具體結(jié)構(gòu)安排如下:第一部分包含第1,2,3章,屬于論文的研究基礎(chǔ)。其中第1章為緒論,主要介紹論文的選題背景、研究的目的與意義,研究思路,研究方法,論文創(chuàng)新點與進(jìn)一步要研究的問題。第2章梳理國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)。國外文獻(xiàn)綜述包括消費(fèi)理論、習(xí)慣形成理論與消費(fèi)理性的一般研究,國內(nèi)文獻(xiàn)綜述主要闡述解釋中國持續(xù)“低消費(fèi)、高儲蓄”經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象背后原因的主要觀點。第3章簡要介紹相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論與模型方法。包括習(xí)慣形成的基本理論與西方幾個具有代表性的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣形成模型。第二、三部分共6章,為論文的主要研究內(nèi)容。第二部分包含第4、5章,提出問題研究的基本思想。第4章界定習(xí)慣形成下的消費(fèi)理性,包括設(shè)定理性消費(fèi)目標(biāo),提出習(xí)慣形成下消費(fèi)理性的含義,消費(fèi)理性時應(yīng)滿足的基本條件以及消費(fèi)理性檢驗的過程與方法。第5章構(gòu)建習(xí)慣形成效用函數(shù),該效用函數(shù)一階條件為后續(xù)消費(fèi)均衡分析的基礎(chǔ)模型。第三部分包含6,7,8,9章,實證分析城鄉(xiāng)居民這一時期消費(fèi)理性問題并提出促進(jìn)消費(fèi)增長的路徑選擇。第6章為中國城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)一般分析,探討城鄉(xiāng)居民這一時期消費(fèi)的收入效應(yīng)與習(xí)慣形成效應(yīng),并獲得各期實際有效消費(fèi)值,為后續(xù)消費(fèi)理性檢驗與分析奠定基礎(chǔ)。第7章實證檢驗中國城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)理性。首先對城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)進(jìn)行均衡分析,估計習(xí)慣形成參數(shù),獲得各期消費(fèi)均衡值。而后依據(jù)第4章設(shè)定的理性條件檢驗這一時期城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)是否具有理性。第8章,依據(jù)上述檢驗結(jié)果、結(jié)合中國實際經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況分析這一時期城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)理性與否的原因。第9章,提出適于中國城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)增長的路徑選擇。第四部分為結(jié)論,概括總結(jié)全文的主要結(jié)論。本文的主要結(jié)論有:(1)1995-2014年間農(nóng)村居民習(xí)慣形成較強(qiáng),習(xí)慣形成更持久,習(xí)慣依據(jù)偏好調(diào)整的靈活程度較差。(2)這一時期城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)具有理性,而農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)表現(xiàn)為非理性。(3)習(xí)慣形成為消費(fèi)理性與非理性的根源之一,習(xí)慣形成越強(qiáng),實際有效消費(fèi)水平越低,效用較大程度偏離最大化時的均衡水平。(4)緩解習(xí)慣形成是促進(jìn)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)增長的有效手段,而降低城鎮(zhèn)居民習(xí)慣形成更應(yīng)立足于長期,從改善總需求與總供給失衡的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)入手尋找解決途徑。本文的創(chuàng)新點包括:(1)定義三個新概念�；谄门c習(xí)慣形成的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系提出“偏好外在階段一致性”假設(shè)和習(xí)慣形成下“消費(fèi)理性”的含義,利用習(xí)慣形成參數(shù)定義“消費(fèi)選擇的瞬時靈活性”。(2)以兩個參數(shù)衡量習(xí)慣形成效應(yīng),更加細(xì)致的考察習(xí)慣形成的特征,包括習(xí)慣形成的持久性與習(xí)慣依據(jù)偏好變動調(diào)整的靈活程度,為緩解習(xí)慣形成影響,促進(jìn)消費(fèi)增長提出更加可靠的政策建議。(3)形成兩種觀點,一是習(xí)慣形成降低了消費(fèi)理性,它是影響消費(fèi)理性與否的根源之一;二是習(xí)慣形成為個體不確定性認(rèn)知的外部表現(xiàn),反映個體辨識、應(yīng)對不確定性影響的能力,而非面臨不確定性數(shù)量多少的外部反應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:In the 1990s, China's economy entered a transitional period, with the gradual improvement of market mechanism and the deepening of marketization, the rapid growth of economy, the income of residents and the continuous improvement of welfare level correspond to it. The reform of health care and old-age pension system makes the individual bear more and more economic risks, and the degree of caution of residents'consumption is gradually enhanced, accompanied by the economic phenomenon of sustained and slow growth of consumption. Prudential behavior, stronger habit formation will bring about lower marginal propensity to consume, and it can reduce the impact of uncertainty on consumption, and ultimately lead to lower current consumption and higher savings (1). The utility of habit formation theory comes not only from current consumption, but also from the accumulated habitual stock of past consumption. Custom-forming consumers are closer to reality, which is why excessive repeated consumption under habit-forming will make consumers feel bored, resulting in utility losses, reducing the degree of satisfaction.Slow consumption growth does not mean less satisfaction. Rationality shows that consumers have been adapted to and satisfied with the long-term economic environment, and therefore are slow to respond to short-term policy shocks. However, the rational state of consumption is not permanent. Rational consumers will adjust their habits according to the improvement of the surrounding conditions and make their consumption gradually reach a new rationality with greater satisfaction. It is rational that the promotion of consumption growth should be based on a long-term basis and seek solutions from the improvement of the overall economic structure. Further formulation of targeted policies and suggestions to promote consumption growth of urban and rural residents and further promote sustained economic growth provides a theoretical basis, but also for China's economic growth contributed to the total demand economy policy in recent years to provide an explanation for the performance of the weak (2). Based on the perspective of habitual formation of consumer issues, domestic. At present, it is still in the primary stage, and the study of consumption rationality is even less in this perspective. This paper makes an empirical study on the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in China from 1995 to 2014 under the framework of habitual formation theory, including the test of consumption rationality, the analysis of the reasons affecting the formation of consumption rationality, and further puts forward the consumption increase suitable for urban and rural residents in China. The paper is divided into four parts, the specific structure is as follows: the first part contains chapters 1, 2, 3, which belong to the research basis of the paper. The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background of the topic, the purpose and significance of the research, research ideas, research methods, innovation points and further research issues. Literature review includes consumption theory, habits formation theory and consumption rationality. Domestic literature review mainly expounds the main points of explaining the reasons behind China's sustained "low consumption, high savings" economic phenomenon. Chapter 3 briefly introduces relevant economic theories and models. The second part contains chapters 4 and 5, and puts forward the basic ideas of the study. Chapter 4 defines the consumption rationality under habit formation, including setting rational consumption goals and putting forward the consumption rationality under habit formation. Chapter 5 constructs the utility function of habit formation, the first-order condition of which is the basic model for subsequent consumption equilibrium analysis. Chapter 3 contains chapters 6, 7, 8 and 9, empirically analyzes the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in this period and puts forward the promotion. Chapter 6 is a general analysis of the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. It explores the income effect and habits formation effect of urban and rural residents'consumption in this period, and obtains the actual effective consumption value of each period, which lays the foundation for the follow-up rational consumption test and analysis. Chapter 7 empirically tests the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in China. Then, according to the rational conditions set in Chapter 4, the rationality of the consumption of urban and rural residents in this period is tested. Chapter 8, based on the above test results, combined with China's actual economic situation, analyzes the reasons for the rationality of urban and rural residents'consumption in this period. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The habits of rural residents formed stronger, the habits formed more lasting, and the flexibility of habits adjusted according to preferences was poor during 1995-2014. (2) The consumption of urban residents in this period was less flexible. (3) Habit formation is one of the root causes of consumption rationality and irrationality. The stronger the habit formation, the lower the actual effective consumption level, and the greater the utility deviates from the equilibrium level when maximizing. (4) Relaxation of habit formation is an effective means to promote the consumption growth of urban and rural residents, while reducing the urban and rural residents. The innovations of this paper include: (1) defining three new concepts. Based on the inherent relationship between preference and habit formation, this paper puts forward the hypothesis of "preference external phase consistency" and the meaning of "consumption rationality" under habit formation. (2) Measure the effect of habit formation with two parameters, examine the characteristics of habit formation more carefully, including the persistence of habit formation and the flexibility of habit adjustment according to preference changes, and put forward more reliable measures to alleviate the influence of habit formation and promote consumption growth. Policy recommendations. (3) Forming two viewpoints, one is that habit formation reduces consumption rationality, which is one of the root causes affecting consumption rationality; the other is that habit formation is the external manifestation of individual uncertainty cognition, reflecting the ability of individual identification to cope with the impact of uncertainty, rather than the external response to the amount of uncertainty.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F126.1
本文編號：2192771
[Abstract]:In the 1990s, China's economy entered a transitional period, with the gradual improvement of market mechanism and the deepening of marketization, the rapid growth of economy, the income of residents and the continuous improvement of welfare level correspond to it. The reform of health care and old-age pension system makes the individual bear more and more economic risks, and the degree of caution of residents'consumption is gradually enhanced, accompanied by the economic phenomenon of sustained and slow growth of consumption. Prudential behavior, stronger habit formation will bring about lower marginal propensity to consume, and it can reduce the impact of uncertainty on consumption, and ultimately lead to lower current consumption and higher savings (1). The utility of habit formation theory comes not only from current consumption, but also from the accumulated habitual stock of past consumption. Custom-forming consumers are closer to reality, which is why excessive repeated consumption under habit-forming will make consumers feel bored, resulting in utility losses, reducing the degree of satisfaction.Slow consumption growth does not mean less satisfaction. Rationality shows that consumers have been adapted to and satisfied with the long-term economic environment, and therefore are slow to respond to short-term policy shocks. However, the rational state of consumption is not permanent. Rational consumers will adjust their habits according to the improvement of the surrounding conditions and make their consumption gradually reach a new rationality with greater satisfaction. It is rational that the promotion of consumption growth should be based on a long-term basis and seek solutions from the improvement of the overall economic structure. Further formulation of targeted policies and suggestions to promote consumption growth of urban and rural residents and further promote sustained economic growth provides a theoretical basis, but also for China's economic growth contributed to the total demand economy policy in recent years to provide an explanation for the performance of the weak (2). Based on the perspective of habitual formation of consumer issues, domestic. At present, it is still in the primary stage, and the study of consumption rationality is even less in this perspective. This paper makes an empirical study on the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in China from 1995 to 2014 under the framework of habitual formation theory, including the test of consumption rationality, the analysis of the reasons affecting the formation of consumption rationality, and further puts forward the consumption increase suitable for urban and rural residents in China. The paper is divided into four parts, the specific structure is as follows: the first part contains chapters 1, 2, 3, which belong to the research basis of the paper. The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background of the topic, the purpose and significance of the research, research ideas, research methods, innovation points and further research issues. Literature review includes consumption theory, habits formation theory and consumption rationality. Domestic literature review mainly expounds the main points of explaining the reasons behind China's sustained "low consumption, high savings" economic phenomenon. Chapter 3 briefly introduces relevant economic theories and models. The second part contains chapters 4 and 5, and puts forward the basic ideas of the study. Chapter 4 defines the consumption rationality under habit formation, including setting rational consumption goals and putting forward the consumption rationality under habit formation. Chapter 5 constructs the utility function of habit formation, the first-order condition of which is the basic model for subsequent consumption equilibrium analysis. Chapter 3 contains chapters 6, 7, 8 and 9, empirically analyzes the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in this period and puts forward the promotion. Chapter 6 is a general analysis of the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. It explores the income effect and habits formation effect of urban and rural residents'consumption in this period, and obtains the actual effective consumption value of each period, which lays the foundation for the follow-up rational consumption test and analysis. Chapter 7 empirically tests the consumption rationality of urban and rural residents in China. Then, according to the rational conditions set in Chapter 4, the rationality of the consumption of urban and rural residents in this period is tested. Chapter 8, based on the above test results, combined with China's actual economic situation, analyzes the reasons for the rationality of urban and rural residents'consumption in this period. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The habits of rural residents formed stronger, the habits formed more lasting, and the flexibility of habits adjusted according to preferences was poor during 1995-2014. (2) The consumption of urban residents in this period was less flexible. (3) Habit formation is one of the root causes of consumption rationality and irrationality. The stronger the habit formation, the lower the actual effective consumption level, and the greater the utility deviates from the equilibrium level when maximizing. (4) Relaxation of habit formation is an effective means to promote the consumption growth of urban and rural residents, while reducing the urban and rural residents. The innovations of this paper include: (1) defining three new concepts. Based on the inherent relationship between preference and habit formation, this paper puts forward the hypothesis of "preference external phase consistency" and the meaning of "consumption rationality" under habit formation. (2) Measure the effect of habit formation with two parameters, examine the characteristics of habit formation more carefully, including the persistence of habit formation and the flexibility of habit adjustment according to preference changes, and put forward more reliable measures to alleviate the influence of habit formation and promote consumption growth. Policy recommendations. (3) Forming two viewpoints, one is that habit formation reduces consumption rationality, which is one of the root causes affecting consumption rationality; the other is that habit formation is the external manifestation of individual uncertainty cognition, reflecting the ability of individual identification to cope with the impact of uncertainty, rather than the external response to the amount of uncertainty.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F126.1
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