“一帶一路”倡議中的戰(zhàn)略支點選擇研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-16 15:55
【摘要】："一帶一路"倡議是中國發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃上的一次偉大創(chuàng)舉,自倡議提出以來得到了國內外媒體的熱議和學界的高度關注,學術成果呈現(xiàn)"百家爭鳴,百花齊放"之勢。但通過對國內外"一帶一路"相關學術研究成果的梳理,發(fā)現(xiàn)目前相關領域的研究存在著"重地緣政治視角、輕戰(zhàn)略視角"的缺憾。作為一項國家大戰(zhàn)略,"一帶一路"在戰(zhàn)略理論框架內的學術研究價值同樣值得深入發(fā)掘。倡議提出后,先后有60多個國家表達了參與共建的意愿。任何國家的戰(zhàn)略資源都是有限的,如何實現(xiàn)精準投放和有效對接,讓有限的戰(zhàn)略資源產(chǎn)生最大的地緣政治效力,將是"一帶一路"倡議的政策制定者和推進實施者必須解決的難題。對于這一問題,戰(zhàn)略支點概念能夠為解決這一難題帶來一定的啟發(fā)和思路。針對"一帶一路"在現(xiàn)實層面的資源分配問題,本研究從中國與戰(zhàn)略支點國家的雙邊關系入手,運用層次分析法和實證研究,探討支點國家對于平穩(wěn)高效推進"一帶一路"的必要性和重要戰(zhàn)略意義、如何根據(jù)中國"一帶一路"的戰(zhàn)略目標選擇相應的支點國家以及面對支點國家的有利條件和潛在風險,如何長善救失、趨利避害,為構建中國的戰(zhàn)略支點國家體系提供有價值的對策和建議。延續(xù)麥金德和布熱津斯基的概念邏輯,結合國內學者的部分觀點,本文將"一帶一路"倡議中的戰(zhàn)略支點界定為擁有軍事、經(jīng)濟、意識形態(tài)或其他重要戰(zhàn)略資源,與中國存在戰(zhàn)略契合點,現(xiàn)在或將來有可能與中國有著穩(wěn)定、可預期和可以抵抗一定外部沖擊的戰(zhàn)略合作關系的國家。戰(zhàn)略支點既不同于聯(lián)盟中的盟國,又不同于一般意義上的雙邊伙伴關系,而是高度契合了目前中國在周邊外交中提出的打造"支點國家"的理念。在分析可行性、戰(zhàn)略價值、合作基礎與意愿、潛在風險等因素基礎上,戰(zhàn)略支點的選擇應符合一定的標準,即具有地緣戰(zhàn)略價值、與中國戰(zhàn)略利益協(xié)調一致以及具備合作的意愿和能力三點。依據(jù)這三點標準,"一帶一路"沿線國家中具備成為支點國家潛力的主要有七個國家,分別是東北亞的俄羅斯,東南亞的印度尼西亞和泰國,南亞的巴基斯坦,中亞的哈薩克斯坦,西亞的土耳其,歐洲的德國。這七個國家都具備較強的地區(qū)影響力,在維護地區(qū)局勢穩(wěn)定、密切經(jīng)濟合作和發(fā)展基礎設施建設等某一方面或多方面對中國存在利益訴求,且與中國不存在領土爭議或其他結構性矛盾。正如任何硬幣都有正反兩面,戰(zhàn)略支點國家在構建過程中也或多或少存在著一定的風險和挑戰(zhàn)。針對這些潛在的風險,中國需要遵循差異化原則、長期性原則、尊重主權原則、兼顧公共外交與官方外交的原則,從政治、制度、物質、文化四個維度著手,在有效管理風險的基礎上,推進"一帶一路""沿線支點國家的建設和維護,確保支點國家充分發(fā)揮應有的作用。打造"一帶一路"沿線的戰(zhàn)略支點國家將為倡議的生根發(fā)芽、枝繁葉茂提供充分支持和有力保障。支點國家的政策協(xié)調和配合能夠縮短政策溝通的時間和人力成本,高效有序地推進"五通"建設,促進先導示范項目快速""落地"",帶動整個地區(qū)的參與積極性;另一方面,支點國家對"五通""的正面影響不僅僅局限于"一帶一路"的推進,而是能夠在保障能源運輸線路安全、保護中國海外利益、拓展中國周邊外交等多個層面上產(chǎn)生效果外溢和連鎖作用。更為重要的是,在理論層面上將戰(zhàn)略支點概念應用到中國"一帶一路"倡議的推進中,不僅可以為目前國內"一帶一路"相關研究提供一種較為新穎的視角,還能從地緣政治層面,為倡議實踐的合理性和可行性提供強有力的理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The "one belt and one way" initiative is a great pioneering undertaking in China's development strategic planning. Since its initiative, it has received high attention from the media and academia at home and abroad, and the academic achievements show the trend of "hundred schools of thought contending and letting a hundred flowers bloom." The study has the shortcomings of "Geopolitical Perspective and strategic perspective". As a national strategy, the academic value of the "one belt and one road" strategy within the framework of strategic theory is also worth exploring. After the proposal was put forward, more than 60 countries expressed their willingness to participate in building together. The precise allocation and effective docking of the limited strategic resources to maximize geopolitical effectiveness will be a difficult problem for policy makers and implementers of the "one way" initiative. To solve this problem, the concept of strategic fulcrum can provide some inspiration and ideas for solving this problem. From the perspective of bilateral relations between China and strategic fulcrum countries, this paper applies AHP and empirical research to explore the necessity and strategic significance of the fulcrum countries in promoting the "one belt and one way" smoothly and efficiently, and how to choose the corresponding fulcrum countries and regions according to the strategic objectives of "one belt and one road". The favorable conditions and potential risks to the fulcrum countries, how to make good use of the advantages and disadvantages, and seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, provide valuable countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of China's strategic fulcrum national system. Military, economic, ideological, or other important strategic resources have strategic points of convergence with China, and countries with stable, predictable, and resistant strategic cooperation with China are or may be in the future. Based on the analysis of feasibility, strategic value, basis and willingness of cooperation, potential risks and other factors, the choice of strategic fulcrum should meet certain criteria, that is, it has geostrategic value, coordinates with China's strategic interests and has cooperation. According to these three points, the seven countries that have the potential to become fulcrum countries are Russia in Northeast Asia, Indonesia and Thailand in Southeast Asia, Pakistan in South Asia, Kazakhstan in Central Asia, Turkey in Western Asia, and Germany in Europe. These seven countries are all three countries. With strong regional influence, China has interests in one or more aspects of maintaining regional stability, close economic cooperation and infrastructure development, and there is no territorial disputes or other structural contradictions with China. In the light of these potential risks, China needs to follow the principles of differentiation, long-term principle, respect for the principle of sovereignty, give consideration to the principles of public diplomacy and official diplomacy, and proceed from the four dimensions of politics, system, material and culture, and promote the "one belt and one road" "fulcrum" along the basis of effective management risk. The construction and maintenance of the family will ensure the fulfilling role of the fulcrum countries. Building a strategic fulcrum along the "one belt and one road" will provide sufficient support and strong guarantee for the initiative and flourishing of the initiative. The policy coordination and cooperation of the fulcrum countries can shorten the time and manpower cost of the policy gap and promote the "Five" in an efficient and orderly way. To promote the participation of the whole region, the positive influence of the fulcrum countries on the "five links" is not limited to the promotion of "one belt and one road", but rather, it can guarantee the safety of energy transmission routes, protect China's overseas interests and expand China's Peripheral Diplomacy. More importantly, applying the concept of strategic fulcrum to the advancement of China's "one belt and one road" initiative at a theoretical level can not only provide a relatively new perspective for the current "one way and one way" study in China, but also provide geopolitical level for the rationality and feasibility of the proposed practice. Strong theoretical basis.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F125
[Abstract]:The "one belt and one way" initiative is a great pioneering undertaking in China's development strategic planning. Since its initiative, it has received high attention from the media and academia at home and abroad, and the academic achievements show the trend of "hundred schools of thought contending and letting a hundred flowers bloom." The study has the shortcomings of "Geopolitical Perspective and strategic perspective". As a national strategy, the academic value of the "one belt and one road" strategy within the framework of strategic theory is also worth exploring. After the proposal was put forward, more than 60 countries expressed their willingness to participate in building together. The precise allocation and effective docking of the limited strategic resources to maximize geopolitical effectiveness will be a difficult problem for policy makers and implementers of the "one way" initiative. To solve this problem, the concept of strategic fulcrum can provide some inspiration and ideas for solving this problem. From the perspective of bilateral relations between China and strategic fulcrum countries, this paper applies AHP and empirical research to explore the necessity and strategic significance of the fulcrum countries in promoting the "one belt and one way" smoothly and efficiently, and how to choose the corresponding fulcrum countries and regions according to the strategic objectives of "one belt and one road". The favorable conditions and potential risks to the fulcrum countries, how to make good use of the advantages and disadvantages, and seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, provide valuable countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of China's strategic fulcrum national system. Military, economic, ideological, or other important strategic resources have strategic points of convergence with China, and countries with stable, predictable, and resistant strategic cooperation with China are or may be in the future. Based on the analysis of feasibility, strategic value, basis and willingness of cooperation, potential risks and other factors, the choice of strategic fulcrum should meet certain criteria, that is, it has geostrategic value, coordinates with China's strategic interests and has cooperation. According to these three points, the seven countries that have the potential to become fulcrum countries are Russia in Northeast Asia, Indonesia and Thailand in Southeast Asia, Pakistan in South Asia, Kazakhstan in Central Asia, Turkey in Western Asia, and Germany in Europe. These seven countries are all three countries. With strong regional influence, China has interests in one or more aspects of maintaining regional stability, close economic cooperation and infrastructure development, and there is no territorial disputes or other structural contradictions with China. In the light of these potential risks, China needs to follow the principles of differentiation, long-term principle, respect for the principle of sovereignty, give consideration to the principles of public diplomacy and official diplomacy, and proceed from the four dimensions of politics, system, material and culture, and promote the "one belt and one road" "fulcrum" along the basis of effective management risk. The construction and maintenance of the family will ensure the fulfilling role of the fulcrum countries. Building a strategic fulcrum along the "one belt and one road" will provide sufficient support and strong guarantee for the initiative and flourishing of the initiative. The policy coordination and cooperation of the fulcrum countries can shorten the time and manpower cost of the policy gap and promote the "Five" in an efficient and orderly way. To promote the participation of the whole region, the positive influence of the fulcrum countries on the "five links" is not limited to the promotion of "one belt and one road", but rather, it can guarantee the safety of energy transmission routes, protect China's overseas interests and expand China's Peripheral Diplomacy. More importantly, applying the concept of strategic fulcrum to the advancement of China's "one belt and one road" initiative at a theoretical level can not only provide a relatively new perspective for the current "one way and one way" study in China, but also provide geopolitical level for the rationality and feasibility of the proposed practice. Strong theoretical basis.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F125
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相關期刊論文 前10條
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