【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)實現(xiàn)了長達(dá)30多年的高速增長。然而,中國過去的高速增長在很大程度上仍屬于粗放型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式,在這種模式下,經(jīng)濟(jì)難以保持持續(xù)的增長。進(jìn)入新常態(tài)以來,中國的GDP增速明顯下滑,粗放式增長的弊端進(jìn)一步顯現(xiàn)。在這種局面下,如何轉(zhuǎn)變傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式,邁進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模報酬遞增的新常態(tài),就顯得尤為重要。而本文正是基于這樣的背景下展開,通過探討中國規(guī)模報酬的現(xiàn)狀和形成機(jī)制,對中國實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式轉(zhuǎn)變具有重要指導(dǎo)意義。首先,本文在對規(guī)模報酬相關(guān)理論匯總分析的基礎(chǔ)上,通過分析潛在增長率與GDP增長率的變動關(guān)系和三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了穩(wěn)定的中高速發(fā)展階段,傳統(tǒng)意義上促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的各項紅利正在逐漸消失,規(guī)模報酬遞增的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式在新常態(tài)階段還沒有全面形成。因此,加快我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長向規(guī)模報酬遞增的增長方式轉(zhuǎn)變已經(jīng)刻不容緩。接著,本文從不同層面對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長進(jìn)行規(guī)模報酬分析。先是通過構(gòu)建生產(chǎn)函數(shù)驗證了長期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中規(guī)模報酬遞增前提假設(shè)的合理性;同時采用非參數(shù)DEA方法對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)主要行業(yè)進(jìn)行規(guī)模報酬判斷,發(fā)現(xiàn)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各行業(yè)主要呈非規(guī)模報酬遞增的態(tài)勢。隨后,在相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)匯總與理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合中國具體國情,將規(guī)模報酬遞增形成機(jī)制的影響因素分為外部性因素、分工和專業(yè)化兩部分,而這些因素都來自于廠商以外的力量。其中,外部性因素主要包括通過刺激FDI投入產(chǎn)生知識溢出和技術(shù)溢出、通過加大RD投資提升經(jīng)濟(jì)部門自身創(chuàng)新能力以及通過人力資本投資提升要素生產(chǎn)效率三個方面,三者合力促進(jìn)規(guī)模報酬遞增機(jī)制的形成。而分工和專業(yè)化對規(guī)模報酬遞增的促進(jìn)主要是通過分工與市場規(guī)模的動態(tài)演進(jìn)機(jī)制實現(xiàn)的;緊接著建立實證模型,將上述理論分析中的影響因素納入實證分析框架中,具體分析各因素對規(guī)模報酬的影響程度。最后通過分析實證檢驗結(jié)果,提出中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長規(guī)模報酬遞增的技術(shù)進(jìn)步路徑、結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變路徑以及制度建設(shè)路徑,并給出本文的研究結(jié)論和待解決的問題。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved 30 years of high-speed growth. However, China's rapid growth in the past is still largely an extensive economic growth model, in which it is difficult to maintain sustained economic growth. Since entering the new normal, China's GDP growth rate has declined significantly, the abuse of extensive growth further revealed. In this situation, how to change the traditional mode of economic growth and step into the new normal of increasing returns of economic scale is particularly important. Based on this background, this paper discusses the present situation and formation mechanism of China's scale reward, which has important guiding significance for China to realize the transformation of economic growth mode. First of all, based on the analysis of scale reward theory, this paper analyzes the relationship between potential growth rate and GDP growth rate and the development of three industries. It is found that China's economic growth has entered a stable and high speed development stage, the dividends that promote economic growth in the traditional sense are gradually disappearing, and the economic development model of increasing returns of scale has not been fully formed in the new normal stage. Therefore, it is urgent to speed up the change from economic growth to increasing scale returns. Then, this article carries on the scale reward analysis to the Chinese economic growth from different aspects. First of all, the rationality of the hypothesis of increasing returns of scale in long-term economic growth is verified by constructing the production function, and the non-parametric DEA method is used to judge the compensation of scale in the main industries of the national economy. It is found that various industries of the national economy are mainly in the situation of increasing non-scale returns. Then, on the basis of relevant literature summary and theoretical analysis, combined with the specific conditions of China, the influencing factors of the mechanism of increasing returns of scale are divided into two parts: externality, division of labor and specialization. These factors all come from outside the firm. Among them, external factors mainly include knowledge spillover and technology spillover by stimulating FDI input, enhancing innovation ability of economic sector by increasing R D investment, and enhancing factor production efficiency through human capital investment. The three join forces to promote the formation of scale reward increasing mechanism. And the promotion of division of labor and specialization to the increase of scale returns is mainly realized through the dynamic evolution mechanism of division of labor and market scale, and then the empirical model is established, and the influencing factors in the above theoretical analysis are brought into the framework of empirical analysis. Specific analysis of the impact of various factors on the scale of reward. Finally, by analyzing the results of empirical test, the paper puts forward the path of technological progress, structural transformation and institutional construction of increasing returns on scale of economic growth in China, and gives the research conclusions and problems to be solved in this paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F124

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