【摘要】：在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的現(xiàn)階段，每一次信貸規(guī)模的調(diào)整都會帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)上的波動，信貸規(guī)模的擴(kuò)張與收縮是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行出現(xiàn)波動的重要驅(qū)動因素。信貸波動對于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)與微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行都會產(chǎn)生影響，并且影響范圍大于金融領(lǐng)域，因此信貸的波動及趨勢也能夠在一定程度上體現(xiàn)出一國經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的發(fā)展趨勢和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策傾向，并且對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動產(chǎn)生影響。所以，利用目前經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的新數(shù)據(jù)來分析信貸波動對于我國經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的影響及傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制具有重要意義，使得我們可以從深層次和更本質(zhì)的原因上理解經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的形成，從而能夠更好的運(yùn)用信貸工具使其能夠?qū)?jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到應(yīng)有的積極作用。 本文運(yùn)用信貸波動與經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的基本理論，來分析信貸波動對于經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的影響及傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。首先對目前我國經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行事實(shí)的分析，總結(jié)出信貸波動與經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的基本特征。其次采用CF濾波的分析方法，對信貸波動對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動產(chǎn)生的影響進(jìn)行具體研究。再次，為了進(jìn)一步對信貸波動影響經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制進(jìn)行研究，以支出法核算GDP的構(gòu)成為基礎(chǔ)，從信貸波動對于消費(fèi)、投資和凈出口波動的影響出發(fā)，建立起信貸波動對于經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。研究結(jié)果顯示，信貸波動通過影響消費(fèi)、投資和進(jìn)出口來對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動產(chǎn)生影響。由此可以看出信貸波動對于經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的影響與重要作用，，因此應(yīng)當(dāng)有效合理利用信貸政策對于經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)節(jié)作用，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:At the present stage of our country's economic operation, every adjustment of credit scale will bring about economic fluctuation. The expansion and contraction of credit scale are the important driving factors for the fluctuation of national economy operation. Credit fluctuations have an impact on both macroeconomic and microeconomic operations, and the scope of impact is greater than in the financial sector. Therefore, the fluctuation and trend of credit can also reflect the development trend and macroeconomic policy tendency of a country's economic operation to a certain extent, and have an impact on the economic fluctuation. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the impact and transmission mechanism of credit fluctuations on China's economic fluctuations by using the new data of current economic operation, so that we can understand the formation of economic fluctuations from the deeper and more essential reasons. In order to make better use of credit tools, it can play a positive role in economic development. In this paper, the basic theory of credit fluctuation and economic fluctuation is used to analyze the influence of credit fluctuation on economic fluctuation and its transmission mechanism. Firstly, the basic characteristics of credit fluctuation and economic fluctuation are summarized by analyzing the facts of China's economic operation. Secondly, the influence of credit fluctuation on economic fluctuation is studied by CF filter. Thirdly, in order to further study the transmission mechanism of credit fluctuation affecting economic fluctuation, based on the composition of GDP accounting by expenditure method, the impact of credit fluctuation on consumption, investment and net export volatility is discussed. Establish the transmission mechanism of credit fluctuation to economic fluctuation. The results show that credit volatility affects economic volatility by influencing consumption, investment, and import and export. It can be seen that the impact and important role of credit fluctuation on economic fluctuation, therefore, we should make effective use of credit policy to regulate the economy and promote the coordinated development of economy and finance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.4;F124.8

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