【摘要】：運用中國家庭追蹤調(diào)查(CFPS2012)數(shù)據(jù)實證檢驗了人口老齡化帶來的消費結(jié)構(gòu)變動情況。基準分析發(fā)現(xiàn),人口老齡化會帶來居民家庭消費結(jié)構(gòu)的改善,但這一改善作用主要是通過提升居民家庭的醫(yī)療保健消費支出占比來實現(xiàn)的,人口老齡化對居民家庭交通通訊消費支出以及文教娛樂消費支出占比的影響均為負。進一步分析發(fā)現(xiàn),相比于城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)而言,人口老齡化的消費結(jié)構(gòu)升級效應在農(nóng)村地區(qū)表現(xiàn)得更為強烈,這與我國大量的青壯年人口從農(nóng)村遷移到城市,使得農(nóng)村的人口老化程度相比于城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)更為嚴峻有關(guān);對于健康狀況更好的家庭而言,人口老齡化的消費結(jié)構(gòu)升級效應反而更弱,健康狀況越佳,人口老化對醫(yī)療保健消費支出更低,相應的對消費結(jié)構(gòu)升級的作用效果越小,這意味著人口老齡化的消費結(jié)構(gòu)升級效應還是淺層次的。
[Abstract]:The data of China Household tracking Survey (CFPS2012) is used to test the change of consumption structure caused by aging population. The benchmark analysis found that the aging of the population will bring about the improvement of household consumption structure, but this improvement is mainly achieved by increasing the proportion of household health care expenditure. The effect of population aging on the consumption of transportation and communication and the consumption of cultural and educational entertainment are both negative. Further analysis shows that, compared with urban areas, the effect of population aging on consumption structure upgrading is more intense in rural areas, which is associated with the migration of large numbers of young and middle-aged people from rural to urban areas. The aging of the rural population is more severe than that of the urban areas; for families in better health, the consumption structure escalation effect of the aging population is weaker, and the better the health, The effect of population aging on health care consumption is lower, and the effect of population aging on consumption structure upgrading is smaller, which means that the effect of population aging on consumption structure upgrading is still shallow.
【作者單位】： 上海財經(jīng)大學財經(jīng)研究所;上海財經(jīng)大學上海市金融信息技術(shù)研究重點實驗室;
【基金】：國家社科基金重大項目“新常態(tài)下建立多點支撐的消費增長格局研究”(15ZDA013) 教育部新世紀優(yōu)秀人才支持計劃(NCET-13-0891) 上海市浦江人才計劃(16PJ034)
【分類號】：C924.24;F126.1

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