我國城鄉(xiāng)通貨膨脹的福利成本差異研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-15 15:20
【摘要】：通貨膨脹的福利成本研究自二十世紀(jì)六十年代開始就已經(jīng)逐漸得到國際學(xué)者的廣泛關(guān)注。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家普遍認(rèn)同,較高的通貨膨脹水平會阻礙市場價(jià)格機(jī)制優(yōu)化資源配置這一基本功能的發(fā)揮,使社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展偏離帕累托最優(yōu)狀態(tài),造成社會福利純損失。自改革開放以來,我國經(jīng)歷了二十世紀(jì)八十年代末和九十年代中期的高通貨膨脹,也維持了1996年后長達(dá)十年的物價(jià)穩(wěn)定,直到2007年開始了最新一輪的非平衡型結(jié)構(gòu)性通貨膨脹,同時由于我國城鄉(xiāng)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的特殊國情,我國農(nóng)村居民和城市居民實(shí)質(zhì)上面臨不同的物價(jià)水平和通貨膨脹成本。從2001年開始農(nóng)村CPI一直高于城市,且物價(jià)上漲速度快于城市的趨勢并沒有改變,最終通貨膨脹的福利成本會給農(nóng)村居民帶來更大壓力。 因此,政府需要在當(dāng)前復(fù)雜的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢下合理控制物價(jià)水平,溫和的通貨膨脹可以減少失業(yè)率,刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,而過高的通貨膨脹會造成社會資源無效配置,社會承擔(dān)過高的成本,本文試圖量化通貨膨脹福利成本,幫助政府尋找合理的物價(jià)水平,并在最小化福利損失的同時,努力減少城鄉(xiāng)居民生活水平影響差距,兼顧社會公平。 根據(jù)Baily的剩余三角形模型,本文首先利用1992-2012年我國狹義貨幣供應(yīng)量、銀行同業(yè)拆借利率和GDP指標(biāo)構(gòu)造長期貨幣需求函數(shù),并得到我國通貨膨脹福利成本。經(jīng)過計(jì)算可以發(fā)現(xiàn),實(shí)際的福利損失并沒有想象中那么大,即使在1994年通貨膨脹率超過24%的背景下,當(dāng)年的通脹福利損失也只有620億元,也就是說,通貨膨脹水平和國民生產(chǎn)總值共同決定了福利成本。同時,在1998年左右的通貨緊縮時期該福利損失也并沒有消失,這不僅驗(yàn)證了通貨緊縮對經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響,也表明通脹水平只是影響福利成本的因素之一。 另一方面本文結(jié)合我國城鄉(xiāng)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)特點(diǎn)在原模型的基礎(chǔ)上改進(jìn)貨幣需求函數(shù),以調(diào)整后的一年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率和儲蓄率為指標(biāo)分別構(gòu)建城鄉(xiāng)長期貨幣需求函數(shù),從簡化的福利成本模型可以看出,無論通貨膨脹還是通貨緊縮時期,無論農(nóng)村CPI高于還是低于城市CPI,農(nóng)村居民承擔(dān)的通貨膨脹福利成本比例均高于城市居民,差距最大時接近0.015%。雖然福利損失對通貨膨脹的反應(yīng)具有一定滯后性,但兩者的波動趨勢具有一致性,這些都表明,城鄉(xiāng)居民的通貨膨脹福利成本差異并非由通脹水平單一決定,還受其他諸多因素影響。 本質(zhì)上看,造成這種差異的根源在于我國城鄉(xiāng)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)和市場化水平,具體表現(xiàn)為城鄉(xiāng)通貨膨脹水平不同,金融壓抑性質(zhì)的政策導(dǎo)致利率未能根據(jù)資金市場供需狀況自由波動,市場并未完全發(fā)揮對資源配置的基礎(chǔ)性作用,同時部分模型中假設(shè)的條件在我國并未得到滿足,如穩(wěn)定的貨幣增長率和適應(yīng)性預(yù)期的調(diào)整作用等,此外居民資產(chǎn)持有結(jié)構(gòu)、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和收入水平等因素都對城鄉(xiāng)居民福利成本差異造成影響。 最后,本文依據(jù)計(jì)量結(jié)果的比較分析提出了相關(guān)政策建議,這些建議將為政府在治理通貨膨脹過程中產(chǎn)生的福利成本分配問題提供有價(jià)值的參考。
[Abstract]:The research on the welfare cost of inflation has gradually gained wide attention from international scholars since 1960s. Economists generally agree that high inflation will prevent the market price mechanism to optimize the basic function of resource allocation, and make social and economic development deviate from Pareto's optimal state and cause society. Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced high inflation at the end of the 1980s and the middle of the 90s, and maintained price stability for up to ten years after 1996, and began the latest round of non balanced structural inflation until 2007, with a special country of two yuan economic structure in urban and rural areas of our country. In fact, rural residents and urban residents in China are faced with different price levels and inflation costs. Since 2001, the rural CPI has been higher than the city, and the price rises faster than the urban trend and has not changed. Finally, the welfare cost of inflation will bring greater pressure to the rural residents.
Therefore, the government needs to control the price level reasonably in the current complex economic situation, moderate inflation can reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economic development, and the high inflation will cause the invalid allocation of social resources and the high cost of the society. This article tries to quantify the cost of inflation welfare and help the government to find reasonable things. At the same time, while minimizing welfare losses, efforts should be made to reduce the gap between urban and rural residents' living standards and give consideration to social equity.
According to the residual triangle model of Baily, this paper first constructs a long-term money demand function by using the narrow sense of money supply, interbank lending rate and GDP index for 1992-2012 years, and obtains the cost of inflation welfare in China. In the context of the inflation rate of more than 24%, the inflationary welfare loss of the year was also only 62 billion yuan, that is to say, the level of inflation and gross national product jointly decided the cost of welfare. At the same time, the welfare loss in the period of deflation in around 1998 did not disappear, which not only verified the negative effects of deflation on the economy, but also indicated that the deflation was negative to the economy. Inflation is only one of the factors that affect welfare costs.
On the other hand, this paper, based on the two yuan economic structure in China, improves the money demand function on the basis of the original model, and constructs the long-term money demand function of the urban and rural areas by adjusting the benchmark interest rate and saving rate of the one-year loan. From the simplified welfare cost model, it can be seen that both inflation and deflation can be seen. In the period, whether the rural CPI is higher or lower than the city CPI, the proportion of the rural residents' inflationary welfare costs is higher than that of the urban residents, and the maximum gap is close to 0.015%., although the response of the welfare loss to the inflation has a certain lag, but the fluctuation trend of the two is the same, which all indicate that the inflation and happiness of the urban and rural residents are good. The difference in profit cost is not determined by the single level of inflation, but also influenced by many other factors.
In essence, the root of this difference lies in the two yuan economic structure and the market level of urban and rural areas in China. The concrete performance is that the level of urban and rural inflation is different. The policy of financial repression has caused the interest rate to not fluctuate freely according to the supply and demand situation of the capital market, and the market does not fully play the basic role in the allocation of resources. The assumptions in the model are not satisfied in our country, such as the stable rate of money growth and the adjustment of adaptive expectation. In addition, the ownership structure, the consumption structure and the income level of the residents all affect the difference of the welfare cost of the urban and rural residents.
Finally, based on the comparison and analysis of the results of measurement, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions, which will provide valuable reference for the government to allocate the welfare cost in the process of controlling inflation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：揚(yáng)州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F822.5;F126
[Abstract]:The research on the welfare cost of inflation has gradually gained wide attention from international scholars since 1960s. Economists generally agree that high inflation will prevent the market price mechanism to optimize the basic function of resource allocation, and make social and economic development deviate from Pareto's optimal state and cause society. Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced high inflation at the end of the 1980s and the middle of the 90s, and maintained price stability for up to ten years after 1996, and began the latest round of non balanced structural inflation until 2007, with a special country of two yuan economic structure in urban and rural areas of our country. In fact, rural residents and urban residents in China are faced with different price levels and inflation costs. Since 2001, the rural CPI has been higher than the city, and the price rises faster than the urban trend and has not changed. Finally, the welfare cost of inflation will bring greater pressure to the rural residents.
Therefore, the government needs to control the price level reasonably in the current complex economic situation, moderate inflation can reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economic development, and the high inflation will cause the invalid allocation of social resources and the high cost of the society. This article tries to quantify the cost of inflation welfare and help the government to find reasonable things. At the same time, while minimizing welfare losses, efforts should be made to reduce the gap between urban and rural residents' living standards and give consideration to social equity.
According to the residual triangle model of Baily, this paper first constructs a long-term money demand function by using the narrow sense of money supply, interbank lending rate and GDP index for 1992-2012 years, and obtains the cost of inflation welfare in China. In the context of the inflation rate of more than 24%, the inflationary welfare loss of the year was also only 62 billion yuan, that is to say, the level of inflation and gross national product jointly decided the cost of welfare. At the same time, the welfare loss in the period of deflation in around 1998 did not disappear, which not only verified the negative effects of deflation on the economy, but also indicated that the deflation was negative to the economy. Inflation is only one of the factors that affect welfare costs.
On the other hand, this paper, based on the two yuan economic structure in China, improves the money demand function on the basis of the original model, and constructs the long-term money demand function of the urban and rural areas by adjusting the benchmark interest rate and saving rate of the one-year loan. From the simplified welfare cost model, it can be seen that both inflation and deflation can be seen. In the period, whether the rural CPI is higher or lower than the city CPI, the proportion of the rural residents' inflationary welfare costs is higher than that of the urban residents, and the maximum gap is close to 0.015%., although the response of the welfare loss to the inflation has a certain lag, but the fluctuation trend of the two is the same, which all indicate that the inflation and happiness of the urban and rural residents are good. The difference in profit cost is not determined by the single level of inflation, but also influenced by many other factors.
In essence, the root of this difference lies in the two yuan economic structure and the market level of urban and rural areas in China. The concrete performance is that the level of urban and rural inflation is different. The policy of financial repression has caused the interest rate to not fluctuate freely according to the supply and demand situation of the capital market, and the market does not fully play the basic role in the allocation of resources. The assumptions in the model are not satisfied in our country, such as the stable rate of money growth and the adjustment of adaptive expectation. In addition, the ownership structure, the consumption structure and the income level of the residents all affect the difference of the welfare cost of the urban and rural residents.
Finally, based on the comparison and analysis of the results of measurement, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions, which will provide valuable reference for the government to allocate the welfare cost in the process of controlling inflation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：揚(yáng)州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F822.5;F126
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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
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