本文選題：國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值 + 修正發(fā)布制度��； 參考：《河南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值這一統(tǒng)計(jì)概念，自產(chǎn)生以來(lái)就備受社會(huì)各界關(guān)注。改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，中國(guó)的國(guó)際地位有了很大提高，中國(guó)的GDP數(shù)據(jù)隨之也受到了世界矚目。目前，世界各國(guó)在GDP核算方面都不盡完善，中國(guó)也不例外，GDP核算工作存在著突出問(wèn)題，其中尤以數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量問(wèn)題突出。通過(guò)制度上的總結(jié)我們可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，GDP數(shù)據(jù)的質(zhì)量保證離不開(kāi)科學(xué)完善的數(shù)據(jù)修訂發(fā)布制度。21世紀(jì)初，國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)中國(guó)的GDP數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量提出了質(zhì)疑，尤其是關(guān)于“中國(guó)的GDP數(shù)據(jù)到底是否真實(shí)”的爭(zhēng)論曾經(jīng)一度白熱化，這便與當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)采取了不完善的GDP數(shù)據(jù)修訂發(fā)布制度有著很大關(guān)系。1985-2003年，中國(guó)的GDP核算發(fā)布制度存在著嚴(yán)重問(wèn)題：年底公布的預(yù)計(jì)數(shù)，很容易使人誤以為是最終統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，而且修正后的GDP增長(zhǎng)率數(shù)據(jù)往往不予公布。隨著國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)工作的不斷完善、國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)與國(guó)際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的逐步接軌，國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量越來(lái)越重視。從2003年開(kāi)始，統(tǒng)計(jì)部門(mén)對(duì)GDP核算發(fā)布制度進(jìn)行了一系列重大改革，例如，增加了GDP數(shù)據(jù)的修訂發(fā)布次數(shù)，嚴(yán)格規(guī)定了每次發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)的修正依據(jù)、發(fā)布時(shí)間及發(fā)布媒介等內(nèi)容。但是，和世界上其他先進(jìn)國(guó)家相比，中國(guó)的GDP修訂發(fā)布次數(shù)偏少，發(fā)布時(shí)間也有些偏晚，因此，中國(guó)的GDP核算發(fā)布制度還需進(jìn)一步完善。在現(xiàn)行的GDP修訂發(fā)布制度下，國(guó)家GDP發(fā)布經(jīng)歷了四個(gè)階段：先從初步核算到初步核實(shí)，再到最終核實(shí)，最后到經(jīng)濟(jì)普查歷史數(shù)據(jù)修訂，而大部分�。ㄊ校﹦t經(jīng)歷了三個(gè)階段：初步核算、最終核實(shí)及歷史修訂。由于基礎(chǔ)資料不同，每次的發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)之間不盡相同，每次的修正效應(yīng)也會(huì)存在差別，限于篇幅，本文僅以經(jīng)濟(jì)普查對(duì)初步核算數(shù)的修正為例，從國(guó)家和地區(qū)兩個(gè)層面，詳細(xì)分析地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的數(shù)據(jù)修正效應(yīng)，并得出以下主要結(jié)論：第一，，不論國(guó)家還是東、中、西各地區(qū)，2008年第二次經(jīng)濟(jì)普查對(duì)歷史數(shù)據(jù)的修正幅度明顯小于2004年第一次經(jīng)濟(jì)普查，而且，越靠近經(jīng)濟(jì)普查年，經(jīng)濟(jì)普查對(duì)地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的修正幅度越大。第二，不論國(guó)家和地區(qū)，經(jīng)濟(jì)普查對(duì)地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的修正效應(yīng)都較為客觀。最后，文章還對(duì)現(xiàn)行的GDP修訂發(fā)布制度提出了若干技術(shù)性建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's international status has been greatly improved, and the GDP data of China has also attracted the attention of the world. At present, all countries in the world are not perfect in the GDP accounting, and the Chinese countries are no exception. There are outstanding problems in the GDP accounting work. In particular, the problem of data quality is outstanding. Through the summary of the system we can find that the quality assurance of the GDP data is inseparable from the scientific and perfect data revision and publication system at the beginning of the.21 century. The domestic and foreign scholars have questioned the GDP data quality of China, especially on whether the "GDP data in China is true" is once a debate. It is so hot that it has a big relationship with the imperfect GDP data revision and release system that China has adopted at that time.1985-2003. There are serious problems in the GDP accounting and publishing system in China: the expected numbers published at the end of the year are easily mistaken for the final statistical data, and the revised GDP growth rate data are often not published. With the continuous improvement of national statistical work and the gradual integration of national economic statistics with international standards, the National Bureau of statistics has paid more and more attention to the quality of data. Since 2003, the statistical department has carried out a series of major reforms on the GDP accounting and publishing system, for example, the number of revised GDP data has been increased, and the data are strictly regulated each time. Compared with other advanced countries in the world, compared with other advanced countries in the world, the number of Chinese GDP revisions is less and the release time is somewhat late. Therefore, China's GDP accounting system needs to be further improved. Under the current GDP revised distribution system, the national GDP release has experienced four stages: first: first From preliminary accounting to preliminary verification, to final verification, and finally to the revision of the historical data of the economic census, the majority of the provinces (cities) have experienced three stages: preliminary accounting, final verification and historical revision. This paper, taking the revision of the preliminary accounting number of the economic census as an example, analyzes the data correction effect in detail from two levels of the country and the region, and draws the following main conclusions: first, no matter the country or the East, the middle, and the western regions, the revision of the historical data in the second economic investigation in 2008 is obviously less than the first in 2004. The second economic census, and the closer to the economic census, the greater the revision of the economic census to the GDP. Second, no matter the country or the region, the economic census has a more objective correction effect on the Gross Regional Product. Finally, the article also put forward some technical suggestions for the current GDP revision and distribution system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F124

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