本文選題：國內生產總值 + 修正發(fā)布制度�。� 參考：《河南財經政法大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：國內生產總值這一統(tǒng)計概念，自產生以來就備受社會各界關注。改革開放以來，中國的國際地位有了很大提高，中國的GDP數據隨之也受到了世界矚目。目前，世界各國在GDP核算方面都不盡完善，中國也不例外，GDP核算工作存在著突出問題，其中尤以數據質量問題突出。通過制度上的總結我們可以發(fā)現，GDP數據的質量保證離不開科學完善的數據修訂發(fā)布制度。21世紀初，國內外學者對中國的GDP數據質量提出了質疑，尤其是關于“中國的GDP數據到底是否真實”的爭論曾經一度白熱化，這便與當時中國采取了不完善的GDP數據修訂發(fā)布制度有著很大關系。1985-2003年，中國的GDP核算發(fā)布制度存在著嚴重問題：年底公布的預計數，很容易使人誤以為是最終統(tǒng)計數據，而且修正后的GDP增長率數據往往不予公布。隨著國家統(tǒng)計工作的不斷完善、國民經濟統(tǒng)計與國際標準的逐步接軌，國家統(tǒng)計局對數據質量越來越重視。從2003年開始，統(tǒng)計部門對GDP核算發(fā)布制度進行了一系列重大改革，例如，增加了GDP數據的修訂發(fā)布次數，嚴格規(guī)定了每次發(fā)布數據的修正依據、發(fā)布時間及發(fā)布媒介等內容。但是，和世界上其他先進國家相比，中國的GDP修訂發(fā)布次數偏少，發(fā)布時間也有些偏晚，因此，中國的GDP核算發(fā)布制度還需進一步完善。在現行的GDP修訂發(fā)布制度下，國家GDP發(fā)布經歷了四個階段：先從初步核算到初步核實，再到最終核實，最后到經濟普查歷史數據修訂，而大部分省（市）則經歷了三個階段：初步核算、最終核實及歷史修訂。由于基礎資料不同，每次的發(fā)布數據之間不盡相同，每次的修正效應也會存在差別，限于篇幅，本文僅以經濟普查對初步核算數的修正為例，從國家和地區(qū)兩個層面，詳細分析地區(qū)生產總值的數據修正效應，并得出以下主要結論：第一，，不論國家還是東、中、西各地區(qū)，2008年第二次經濟普查對歷史數據的修正幅度明顯小于2004年第一次經濟普查，而且，越靠近經濟普查年，經濟普查對地區(qū)生產總值的修正幅度越大。第二，不論國家和地區(qū)，經濟普查對地區(qū)生產總值的修正效應都較為客觀。最后，文章還對現行的GDP修訂發(fā)布制度提出了若干技術性建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's international status has been greatly improved, and the GDP data of China has also attracted the attention of the world. At present, all countries in the world are not perfect in the GDP accounting, and the Chinese countries are no exception. There are outstanding problems in the GDP accounting work. In particular, the problem of data quality is outstanding. Through the summary of the system we can find that the quality assurance of the GDP data is inseparable from the scientific and perfect data revision and publication system at the beginning of the.21 century. The domestic and foreign scholars have questioned the GDP data quality of China, especially on whether the "GDP data in China is true" is once a debate. It is so hot that it has a big relationship with the imperfect GDP data revision and release system that China has adopted at that time.1985-2003. There are serious problems in the GDP accounting and publishing system in China: the expected numbers published at the end of the year are easily mistaken for the final statistical data, and the revised GDP growth rate data are often not published. With the continuous improvement of national statistical work and the gradual integration of national economic statistics with international standards, the National Bureau of statistics has paid more and more attention to the quality of data. Since 2003, the statistical department has carried out a series of major reforms on the GDP accounting and publishing system, for example, the number of revised GDP data has been increased, and the data are strictly regulated each time. Compared with other advanced countries in the world, compared with other advanced countries in the world, the number of Chinese GDP revisions is less and the release time is somewhat late. Therefore, China's GDP accounting system needs to be further improved. Under the current GDP revised distribution system, the national GDP release has experienced four stages: first: first From preliminary accounting to preliminary verification, to final verification, and finally to the revision of the historical data of the economic census, the majority of the provinces (cities) have experienced three stages: preliminary accounting, final verification and historical revision. This paper, taking the revision of the preliminary accounting number of the economic census as an example, analyzes the data correction effect in detail from two levels of the country and the region, and draws the following main conclusions: first, no matter the country or the East, the middle, and the western regions, the revision of the historical data in the second economic investigation in 2008 is obviously less than the first in 2004. The second economic census, and the closer to the economic census, the greater the revision of the economic census to the GDP. Second, no matter the country or the region, the economic census has a more objective correction effect on the Gross Regional Product. Finally, the article also put forward some technical suggestions for the current GDP revision and distribution system.
【學位授予單位】：河南財經政法大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124

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