本文選題：信息消費(fèi) + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)�。� 參考：《北京郵電大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：信息技術(shù)的進(jìn)步、信息產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展、部分信息產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)價(jià)格的下降、居民生活水平的提高,這一系列因素促成了信息消費(fèi)成為我國(guó)消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)外需不足、內(nèi)需增長(zhǎng)乏力的背景下,信息消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系,以及如何在拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量較快增加的同時(shí),實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級(jí),已經(jīng)成為我國(guó)現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題之一,獲得學(xué)術(shù)界廣泛的關(guān)注。目前,國(guó)際理論界沒(méi)有與“信息消費(fèi)”完全對(duì)應(yīng)的概念；國(guó)內(nèi)的理論研究基本上處于概念探討層面,目前仍然各執(zhí)一詞,尚未達(dá)成共識(shí),系統(tǒng)性、深入性的理論成果明顯欠缺；實(shí)證研究大多屬于為現(xiàn)狀分析,較少討論發(fā)展趨勢(shì),所有研究中都默認(rèn)信息消費(fèi)在未來(lái)的快速發(fā)展,幾乎沒(méi)有定量研究,對(duì)其與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)互動(dòng)關(guān)系的研究則更為罕見(jiàn)。這不僅影響了信息消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的解釋能力,而且造成了分析框架的缺失,有鑒于此,構(gòu)建信息消費(fèi)的層次結(jié)構(gòu)分析框架,并揭示居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的作用機(jī)制,對(duì)學(xué)術(shù)研究和政府決策都具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 在總結(jié)前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,論文圍繞“為什么”和“怎么樣”推動(dòng)信息消費(fèi)兩個(gè)中心問(wèn)題展開(kāi)研究。論文從基本概念和構(gòu)成出發(fā),提出了信息消費(fèi)的層次結(jié)構(gòu)模型,并以此模型為分析框架,進(jìn)行了深入細(xì)致的定性分析和實(shí)證研究。首先,在分析發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,預(yù)測(cè)了我國(guó)居民信息消費(fèi)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)；其次,分析了居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響機(jī)理,并使用多種計(jì)量分析方法對(duì)我國(guó)居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用進(jìn)行了定量分析；最后,研究了居民信息消費(fèi)影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的作用機(jī)制,并嘗試使用投入產(chǎn)出分析方法進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。通過(guò)上述分析,論文得到了一些有意義的結(jié)論： 第一,論文提出了信息消費(fèi)的層次結(jié)構(gòu)模型,從信息內(nèi)容、信息終端、信息網(wǎng)絡(luò)、信息軟件四個(gè)層次研究了居民信息消費(fèi)及其對(duì)相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響。該模型為居民信息消費(fèi)的構(gòu)成提供了理論依據(jù),也為后續(xù)章節(jié)的研究奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。 第二,基于上述模型,論文擬合了2013年至2020年我國(guó)居民信息消費(fèi)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),從消費(fèi)規(guī)模、消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、消費(fèi)系數(shù)角度預(yù)測(cè)了未來(lái)的變動(dòng)情況：我國(guó)居民城鄉(xiāng)信息消費(fèi)支出將保持快速增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),年均增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)9.6%；消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)將更趨于合理；信息消費(fèi)系數(shù)趨于穩(wěn)定；城鄉(xiāng)消費(fèi)差距將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。 第三,論文從直接作用和間接作用兩個(gè)層面定性研究了居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響機(jī)理；使用向量自回歸模型、分位數(shù)模型、面板數(shù)據(jù)模型等計(jì)量方法,從消費(fèi)總量和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)兩個(gè)角度,基于全國(guó)、城鄉(xiāng)和地區(qū)三個(gè)層面,驗(yàn)證了居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響具有乘數(shù)效應(yīng)、滯后效應(yīng)和差異效應(yīng)。主要結(jié)論如下：(1)居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的彈性系數(shù)為0.8856,影響顯著；這種影響具有滯后效應(yīng),隨著時(shí)間的推移有逐漸擴(kuò)大的趨勢(shì)；僅從實(shí)際消費(fèi)額看,兩者的關(guān)系主要表現(xiàn)為信息消費(fèi)拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并未充分帶動(dòng)信息消費(fèi)。(2)城鎮(zhèn)居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響要大于農(nóng)村,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的增加,居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響略有減弱。(3)居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)31個(gè)省市的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都有正向影響,但地區(qū)之間的差異較大,中西部地區(qū)居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用整體上大于東部。(4)在消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)中,教育文化娛樂(lè)支出比通訊支出對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用更顯著；農(nóng)村通訊和教育文化娛樂(lè)支出對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用差距較大,而城鎮(zhèn)則較為均衡。通過(guò)上述分析,印證了發(fā)展居民信息消費(fèi)的必要性。 第四,論文在定性分析居民信息消費(fèi)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)互動(dòng)關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,以城鎮(zhèn)為例,利用投入產(chǎn)出模型,依據(jù)居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)“誘發(fā)的增加值”、“生產(chǎn)誘發(fā)系數(shù)”和“對(duì)低能耗部門的誘發(fā)效率”三個(gè)指標(biāo),從三次產(chǎn)業(yè)和42個(gè)部門兩個(gè)層面,驗(yàn)證了居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)存在優(yōu)化作用。主要結(jié)論如下：(1)居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的誘發(fā)系數(shù)較高,說(shuō)明發(fā)展信息消費(fèi)能提高產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化率；(2)隨著信息消費(fèi)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大,這種優(yōu)化作用會(huì)越來(lái)越好。(3)居民信息消費(fèi)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化作用比居民消費(fèi)總體的作用更好。(4)較之通訊支出,教育文化娛樂(lè)支出對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的效率更高。(5)按對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化作用從大到小對(duì)信息消費(fèi)細(xì)項(xiàng)排序,依次為通訊服務(wù)、教育、文教娛樂(lè)服務(wù)、通訊工具、文教娛樂(lè)用品和教材,說(shuō)明在保持信息消費(fèi)支出規(guī)模不變的情況下,提高誘發(fā)效率較高的細(xì)項(xiàng)的比重,能更有效地推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化。
[Abstract]:The development of information technology , the development of information industry , the decline of some information products and service prices and the improvement of the living standard of the residents have contributed to the hot problems in the consumption field of our country .
At present , the theoretical research at home is basically at the level of concept discussion , and there is still no consensus , systematicness and indepth of theoretical results .
The empirical research mostly belongs to the analysis of the present situation , and the development trend is seldom discussed . The research on the relationship between the information consumption and the economic growth is much more rare . This not only affects the explanation ability of the information consumption to the economic growth , but also causes the lack of the analysis framework , and reveals the mechanism of the residents ' information consumption to the economic growth and the industrial structure , and has important theoretical and practical significance for academic research and government decision - making .

On the basis of summarizing the previous research results , the paper studies the two central issues of " why " and " how " to push the information consumption . From the basic concept and composition , this paper puts forward the hierarchy model of information consumption , and makes a detailed qualitative analysis and demonstration research based on this model . First , on the basis of analyzing the present situation of development , this paper forecasts the development trend of information consumption in our country .
Secondly , the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of resident information consumption on economic growth , and makes quantitative analysis on the effect of information consumption on economic growth in our country .
Finally , the mechanism of influencing the industrial structure of resident information consumption is studied , and the input - output analysis method is tried to validate it . Through the above analysis , some meaningful conclusions are obtained :

First , the paper puts forward the hierarchy model of information consumption , from four levels of information content , information terminal , information network and information software to study the influence of resident information consumption and its influence on the related industries . The model provides theoretical basis for the composition of resident information consumption and lays a theoretical foundation for the study of subsequent chapters .

Secondly , on the basis of the above model , the development trend of information consumption in our country from 2013 to 2020 is fitted . From the angle of consumption scale , consumption structure and consumption coefficient , the future changes are predicted : the consumption expenditure of urban and rural information in our country will keep the trend of rapid growth , with annual growth rate reaching 9.6 % ;
Consumption structure will be more reasonable ;
the information consumption coefficient tends to be stable ;
The gap between urban and rural consumption will be expanded further .

Thirdly , the thesis qualitatively studies the influence mechanism of resident information consumption on economic growth from two aspects : direct action and indirect effect .
Based on the three aspects of total consumption and consumption structure , the influence of resident information consumption on economic growth has multiplier effect , lag effect and difference effect . The main conclusions are as follows : ( 1 ) The elastic coefficient of resident information consumption to economic growth is 0.8856 , which has significant impact ;
This effect has a hysteresis effect , and gradually increases with time .
( 2 ) Residents ' information consumption has a positive impact on economic growth . ( 3 ) Residents ' information consumption has positive impact on economic growth . ( 3 ) Residents ' information consumption has a positive impact on economic growth .
The rural communication and educational and cultural entertainment expenditure has a great gap on the economy , while the town is more balanced . Through the above analysis , the necessity of developing resident information consumption is confirmed .

Fourthly , based on the analysis of the relationship between the consumption of information and industrial structure of the residents , the paper demonstrates the optimization of the industrial structure from the three industries and 42 sectors by using the input - output model , based on the three indexes of the " added value " , " production - induced coefficient " and " induced efficiency of the low - energy - energy sector " . The main conclusions are as follows : ( 1 ) The consumption of resident information is higher than that of the second industry and the third industry , indicating that the development information consumption can improve the optimization rate of industrial structure ;
( 2 ) With the expansion of information consumption scale , this kind of optimization will be better . ( 3 ) The optimization of industrial structure is better than that of resident consumption .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京郵電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F49;F121.3;F124

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