本文選題：人口老齡化 + 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷　； 參考：《重慶工商大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口老齡化問題已經(jīng)成為全球性的問題。按照國際判定老齡化的一般標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(1),從2001年起,我國已經(jīng)進入了人口老齡化階段,成為年老型社會。然而產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展離不開人口資源的支撐。需求側(cè),人口老齡化將會改變消費結(jié)構(gòu),進而使得產(chǎn)品需求結(jié)構(gòu)受到影響,產(chǎn)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)者將會根據(jù)產(chǎn)品需求的改變調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),引起產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷;供給側(cè),人口老齡化則會通過勞動力的供給數(shù)量、質(zhì)量以及社會資本儲蓄量等方面的改變,影響著勞動力供給數(shù)量、勞動力生產(chǎn)效率水平、資金供給量,進而使得產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生變遷。人口老齡化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷有著密切的關(guān)系。在人口老齡化的背景下,如何實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級是我國面臨的亟需解決的問題之一。因此,通過人口老齡化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷影響進行深入探討分析是十分必要,且具有重要的研究價值。本文運用理論分析與實證分析相結(jié)合的研究方法,在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷理論的指導(dǎo)下,歸納總結(jié)影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的影響因素,探討人口老齡化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的作用機制。在相關(guān)理論的指導(dǎo)下,選取2001-2015年全國31個省(直轄市)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),建立多個動態(tài)模型,利用SYS-GMM估計分析,從全國層面和區(qū)域?qū)用娣謩e分析人口老齡化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷的影響。結(jié)果顯示,在人口老齡化沖擊下,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化與人口老齡化具有負的影響效應(yīng),且作用效果顯著,說明人口老齡化促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)向合理化方向變遷;在人口老齡化的沖擊下,人口老齡化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化具有正的影響效應(yīng),且作用結(jié)果顯著,說明人口老齡化對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化起到促進作用,使產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)向高級化方向變遷;區(qū)域差異化研究發(fā)現(xiàn),東部、中部地區(qū)人口老齡化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化指數(shù)有負的影響效應(yīng),而西部地區(qū)人口老齡化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化指數(shù)有正的影響效應(yīng),這也就說明,東部、中部地區(qū)人口老齡化促進產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)向合理化方向變遷,西部地區(qū)阻礙產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)向合理化方向變遷,原因可能是西部地區(qū)進入人口老齡化的時間較短,還不能充分發(fā)揮人口老齡化的帶動作用;東、中、西部,人口老齡化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化兩者皆具有正的影響效應(yīng),只是作用效果顯著不同。根據(jù)上述結(jié)果以及在現(xiàn)狀分析中發(fā)現(xiàn)的問題,考慮到我國人口老齡化大背景下,如何合理調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是我國國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的首要問題。本文提出下列建議:(1)做好頂層設(shè)計,科學(xué)制定產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃;(2)大力發(fā)展老齡產(chǎn)業(yè),促進現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展;(3)加大教育投入,提高人力資本存量;(4)促進勞動力市場流動性,推動區(qū)域與城鄉(xiāng)就業(yè)一體化;(5)推動科技創(chuàng)新,促進產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級。
[Abstract]:The problem of population aging has become a global problem. According to the general international standard for judging the aging of the population, China has entered the stage of population aging since 2001 and has become an aging society. However, the development of industry can not be separated from the support of population resources. On the demand side, the aging population will change the consumption structure, which will affect the product demand structure, and the industrial producers will adjust the industrial structure according to the change of the product demand, causing the change of the industrial structure; The aging of the population will influence the quantity of labor supply, the level of labor productivity and the amount of capital supply through the changes of supply quantity, quality of labor force and the amount of social capital savings, which will make the industrial structure change. The aging population is closely related to the change of industrial structure. Under the background of aging population, how to realize the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is one of the problems that our country needs to solve urgently. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the influence of population aging on industrial structure change and has important research value. Under the guidance of the theory of industrial structure change, this paper summarizes the influence factors of industrial structure change, and probes into the mechanism of the aging of population on the industrial structure change by using the research method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis. Under the guidance of relevant theories, this paper selects the relevant data of 31 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) from 2001 to 2015, establishes several dynamic models, and analyzes the effects of population aging on the changes of industrial structure from the national level and the regional level by using SYS-GMM estimation analysis. The results show that under the impact of population aging, the rationalization of industrial structure and the aging of population have negative effects, and the effect is significant, which indicates that the aging of population promotes the change of industrial structure towards rationalization. Under the impact of the aging population, the aging of the population and the advanced industrial structure have a positive effect, and the result is significant, which shows that the aging of the population plays a role in promoting the higher industrial structure and makes the industrial structure change to the higher level. The study of regional differentiation found that the aging of population and the rationalization index of industrial structure in the eastern and central regions have negative effects, while the aging population and the rationalization index of industrial structure in the western region have a positive effect, which means that the eastern part of the region has a negative effect on the aging of population and the rationalization index of industrial structure. The aging of the population in the central region promotes the change of industrial structure towards rationalization, while the western region hinders the transition of industrial structure towards rationalization, which may be due to the short time for the western region to enter the aging population. In the east, the middle and the west, the aging of the population and the advanced industrial structure both have positive effects, but the effects are obviously different. According to the above results and the problems found in the analysis of the present situation, how to adjust the industrial structure reasonably is the primary problem in the development of our national economy, considering the background of aging population in our country. This paper puts forward the following suggestions: to do a good job of top-level design, to make a scientific industrial development plan) to vigorously develop the aging industry, to promote the development of the modern service industry and to increase the investment in education, and to raise the stock of human capital. 4) to promote the mobility of the labour market. Promote regional and urban-rural integration of employment 5) promote scientific and technological innovation, promote industrial transformation and upgrading.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：C924.24;F121.3

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本文編號：1966356