本文選題：全面兩孩 + 可持續(xù)發(fā)展��； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》2016年11期

【摘要】：全面兩孩政策將對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生長(zhǎng)期影響。通過(guò)隊(duì)列要素法和人口預(yù)測(cè)軟件對(duì)我國(guó)人口變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行定量預(yù)測(cè)及對(duì)比分析,結(jié)果顯示:全面兩孩政策會(huì)使人口數(shù)量有所增長(zhǎng),但可能不會(huì)超過(guò)預(yù)期;該政策難以改變我國(guó)老齡化日趨嚴(yán)重的情況,也不足以改變勞動(dòng)力供給不斷下降的趨勢(shì)";補(bǔ)償性生育高峰"對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也會(huì)產(chǎn)生一定的問(wèn)題和壓力。因此,應(yīng)當(dāng)完善相應(yīng)的政策法規(guī),降低生育成本、提高生育意愿,加強(qiáng)醫(yī)療教育基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)及加快產(chǎn)兒科和幼教力量的培養(yǎng),適當(dāng)延遲退休時(shí)間,發(fā)展老齡產(chǎn)業(yè),以應(yīng)對(duì)我國(guó)人口結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾日益嚴(yán)重的挑戰(zhàn),保障社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:A comprehensive two-child policy will have a long-term impact on the sustainable development of society and economy. The quantitative prediction and comparative analysis of population change trends in China are carried out by means of cohort factor method and population prediction software. The results show that the overall two-child policy will increase the population number, but it may not exceed the expectation; This policy is difficult to change the aging situation of our country, and it is not enough to change the declining trend of labor supply. "compensatory fertility peak" will also produce certain problems and pressures on the social and economic development. Therefore, we should perfect the corresponding policies and regulations, reduce the birth cost, raise the fertility intention, strengthen the construction of the medical education infrastructure, accelerate the training of paediatrics and preschool education, delay the retirement time appropriately, and develop the industry of the aged. In order to meet the increasingly serious challenges of the structural contradiction of population in China, the sustainable development of social economy is guaranteed.
【作者單位】： 廣東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)金融學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“二次人口紅利與經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)路徑研究”(12BJL027)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.21;F124
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本文編號(hào)：1943197