本文選題：全面兩孩 + 可持續(xù)發(fā)展��； 參考：《經(jīng)濟學家》2016年11期

【摘要】：全面兩孩政策將對社會經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生長期影響。通過隊列要素法和人口預(yù)測軟件對我國人口變動趨勢進行定量預(yù)測及對比分析,結(jié)果顯示:全面兩孩政策會使人口數(shù)量有所增長,但可能不會超過預(yù)期;該政策難以改變我國老齡化日趨嚴重的情況,也不足以改變勞動力供給不斷下降的趨勢";補償性生育高峰"對社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展也會產(chǎn)生一定的問題和壓力。因此,應(yīng)當完善相應(yīng)的政策法規(guī),降低生育成本、提高生育意愿,加強醫(yī)療教育基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)及加快產(chǎn)兒科和幼教力量的培養(yǎng),適當延遲退休時間,發(fā)展老齡產(chǎn)業(yè),以應(yīng)對我國人口結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾日益嚴重的挑戰(zhàn),保障社會經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:A comprehensive two-child policy will have a long-term impact on the sustainable development of society and economy. The quantitative prediction and comparative analysis of population change trends in China are carried out by means of cohort factor method and population prediction software. The results show that the overall two-child policy will increase the population number, but it may not exceed the expectation; This policy is difficult to change the aging situation of our country, and it is not enough to change the declining trend of labor supply. "compensatory fertility peak" will also produce certain problems and pressures on the social and economic development. Therefore, we should perfect the corresponding policies and regulations, reduce the birth cost, raise the fertility intention, strengthen the construction of the medical education infrastructure, accelerate the training of paediatrics and preschool education, delay the retirement time appropriately, and develop the industry of the aged. In order to meet the increasingly serious challenges of the structural contradiction of population in China, the sustainable development of social economy is guaranteed.
【作者單位】： 廣東財經(jīng)大學金融學院;
【基金】：國家社會科學基金項目“二次人口紅利與經(jīng)濟持續(xù)增長路徑研究”(12BJL027)
【分類號】：C924.21;F124
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本文編號：1943197