發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-27 14:24

  本文選題：一帶一路 + GTAP動(dòng)態(tài)遞推　； 參考：《東華大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：“一帶一路”開(kāi)創(chuàng)了中國(guó)對(duì)外開(kāi)放的全新格局,其中貿(mào)易暢通與設(shè)施聯(lián)通是在該倡議推進(jìn)過(guò)程中的兩項(xiàng)重要舉措。中國(guó)與沿線區(qū)域共商共建自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的步伐正逐步加快,同時(shí)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的合作正如火如荼地進(jìn)行,各方面的努力將激發(fā)區(qū)域合作潛力。為探討“一帶一路”對(duì)沿線區(qū)域的預(yù)期經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng),本文以沿線六大區(qū)域作為主要研究區(qū)域,采用GTAP進(jìn)行量化分析并從宏微觀角度分別就居民福利、貿(mào)易狀況、實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)率、各行業(yè)貿(mào)易、產(chǎn)出水平及動(dòng)態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)六個(gè)方面闡述該倡議的預(yù)期經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)“一帶一路”的推進(jìn)將對(duì)沿線區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和福利產(chǎn)生不同影響,福利改善最大的是蒙俄地區(qū),實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)最大的是東南亞;(2)通過(guò)減免關(guān)稅與加強(qiáng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),沿線區(qū)域的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作水平將得到顯著提升,西亞、蒙俄、中亞的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)將發(fā)生深刻變化,主要區(qū)域的貿(mào)易條件均將得到改善;(3)“一帶一路”實(shí)施將對(duì)不同行業(yè)產(chǎn)生復(fù)雜的影響,將對(duì)中國(guó)紡織服裝鞋帽制品行業(yè)正向影響最顯著,而非金屬及其制品等行業(yè)將遭受一定的損失。國(guó)內(nèi)政府、企業(yè)與社會(huì)應(yīng)適時(shí)引導(dǎo)可能遭受損失的行業(yè)做出調(diào)整以適應(yīng)更加開(kāi)放的國(guó)際環(huán)境,同時(shí)短期內(nèi)適當(dāng)引導(dǎo)國(guó)內(nèi)資本流向中東歐尚具潛在投資價(jià)值的國(guó)家。擴(kuò)展FTA戰(zhàn)略時(shí)應(yīng)遵循“量體裁衣”原則,確保談判結(jié)果的福利效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:"Belt and Road" has created a new pattern of China's opening to the outside world, in which smooth trade and facilities connectivity are two important measures in the process of promoting the initiative. China is speeding up the pace of building a free trade zone with the region along the route, and the cooperation of infrastructure construction is in full swing. The efforts of all aspects will stimulate the potential of regional cooperation. In order to discuss the expected economic effect of "Belt and Road" on the area along the route, this paper takes the six major regions along the route as the main research area, uses GTAP to carry on the quantitative analysis, and from the macro and micro angle separately discusses the resident welfare, the trade situation, the real GDP growth rate. This paper expounds the expected economic effects of this initiative from six aspects: trade, output level and dynamic economic effect. The research results show that the promotion of "Belt and Road" will have different effects on the economic growth and welfare of the areas along the route. The biggest improvement in welfare is in the region of Mongolia and Russia. The biggest increase in real GDP is in Southeast Asia, where tariff relief and infrastructure construction are strengthened. The level of economic and trade cooperation along the route will be significantly improved. The industrial structure of Western Asia, Mongolia, Russia, and Central Asia will undergo profound changes. The implementation of "Belt and Road" will have a complex impact on different industries, and will have the most significant positive impact on China's textile, clothing, shoes and hats industry. And the industry such as non-metal and its product will suffer certain loss. The domestic government, enterprises and society should timely guide the industries that may suffer losses to adapt to the more open international environment, and at the same time properly guide domestic capital to the countries with potential investment value in the Middle East and Europe in the short term. When expanding FTA strategy, we should follow the principle of "tailoring" to ensure the welfare effect of negotiation result.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F114.4;F742

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本文編號(hào)：1942465