本文選題：霧霾治理 + SIS算法��； 參考：《南京信息工程大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國經(jīng)濟迅速發(fā)展,人民生活水平顯著提高。作為90年代一種少見的自然現(xiàn)象—霧霾,越來越成為危害公眾的氣候要素,霧霾污染成為人們關(guān)注的重點。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容和結(jié)論如下:第一章介紹霧霾污染的研究背景和研究現(xiàn)狀,主要對霧霾治理和霧霾經(jīng)濟的研究現(xiàn)狀進行闡述,并給出本文研究內(nèi)容和技術(shù)路線圖。第二章利用時間序列方法分析南京霧霾現(xiàn)狀,對2014-2016年南京霧霾PM2.5月平均濃度數(shù)據(jù)進行擬合與預測。結(jié)果表明采用ARMA(2,2)模型對2014-2016年南京霧霾PM2.5月平均濃度數(shù)據(jù)擬合效果較好,且預測出2017年1、2月南京霧霾PM2.5濃度分別為61.5、59.7,與真實濃度59.0、55.6幾乎一致。第三章采用探索性因子分析提取公因子,再根據(jù)結(jié)構(gòu)方程找出公因子間的霧霾治理意愿最優(yōu)模型。結(jié)果表明霧霾治理意愿受霧霾風險感知、霧霾感知質(zhì)量、霧霾感知措施和霧霾經(jīng)濟支出的影響,霧霾感知措施和霧霾風險感知的綜合影響效應較大;雖然霧霾經(jīng)濟支出的綜合效應值較小,這是由于公眾更希望政府采取措施治理霧霾所造成的。此外,霧霾風險感知是所有潛在變量的基礎(chǔ),霧霾越嚴重,霧霾的經(jīng)濟支出、感知質(zhì)量、感知措施和治理意愿都會增加。最后,算出我國公眾霧霾治理意愿指數(shù)值為82.31,治理意愿較為強烈。第四章以江蘇為例,引入大數(shù)據(jù)處理方法—SIS算法處理二分式問卷數(shù)據(jù),有效篩選霧霾支付意愿的影響因子,結(jié)合條件價值法,估算出霧霾治理效益,并與基于Spike模型的平均值估計法相比較。根據(jù)二分Logistic回歸模型,得到霧霾治理支付意愿與政府采取措施治理霧霾必要性、公眾采取措施治理霧霾必要性有關(guān)。采用CVM估算出的江蘇霧霾治理效益為173.13億元,而基于Spike模型的平均值估計法得到的江蘇霧霾治理效益為95.32億元。因為后者的模型假設(shè)太過理想化,因此江蘇霧霾治理效益利用CVM更為準確,這就意味著要使江蘇霧霾情況得以緩解,至少需要投入173.13億元。第五章在Romer模型的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建霧霾經(jīng)濟效應內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟增長模型,并用我國內(nèi)地31個省、自治區(qū)、直轄市2011—2015年的面板數(shù)據(jù)對模型進行擬合。結(jié)果表明霧霾經(jīng)濟效應與人力資本存量、勞動投入量與物質(zhì)資本存量均呈現(xiàn)正相關(guān)關(guān)系,其中物質(zhì)資本存量對經(jīng)濟增長的推動作用最顯著。霧霾經(jīng)濟效應與霧霾污染損害和壓力呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,說明我國經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,是以犧牲空氣環(huán)境為代價,且不符合環(huán)境庫茲涅茨曲線。霧霾治理離不開技術(shù)水平的支持與污染管控,只有提高技術(shù)創(chuàng)新水平,減少能源消耗,增加政府管控,加大霧霾治理費用與力度,才能解決我國霧霾污染問題。第六章根據(jù)研究結(jié)果從健全法律法規(guī)體系,建立環(huán)境監(jiān)督聯(lián)動機制,優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)布局、調(diào)整能源結(jié)構(gòu)和加強環(huán)�？萍紕�(chuàng)新四個方面提供政策建議,并提出對本研究的展望。
[Abstract]:Since reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly and the people's living standards have improved significantly. As a rare natural phenomenon in the 1990s, haze has become an increasingly harmful element of climate, and haze pollution has become the focus of attention. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: the first chapter introduces the research background and status quo of haze pollution, mainly describes the research status of haze governance and haze economy, and gives the research content and technical roadmap. In chapter 2, the present situation of Nanjing haze is analyzed by time series method, and the monthly average concentration data of Nanjing haze PM2.5 from 2014-2016 are fitted and forecasted. The results show that the ARMA-2X) model is effective in fitting the monthly average concentration of Nanjing haze PM2.5 from 2014 to 2016, and the predicted concentration of Nanjing haze PM2.5 in January and February 2017 is 61.5 ~ 59.7, which is almost in agreement with the true concentration of 59.0 ~ 55.6. In the third chapter, we use exploratory factor analysis to extract common factors, and then find out the optimal model of haze governance will among common factors according to the structural equation. The results show that haze governance willingness is affected by haze risk perception, haze perception quality, haze perception measures and haze economic expenditure, and haze perception measures and haze risk perception have a greater impact on the overall effect. Although the combined effect of haze spending is small, this is due to the public's preference for the government to take steps to manage the haze. In addition, haze risk perception is the basis of all potential variables. The more serious haze is, the more haze will increase the economic expenditure, perceived quality, perceived measures and governance willingness of haze. Finally, the author calculates that the public haze governance will index is 82.31, and the governance will is stronger. The fourth chapter takes Jiangsu province as an example, introduces the big data processing method -SIS algorithm to deal with the dichotomous questionnaire data, effectively selects the influence factor of haze's willingness to pay, and estimates the benefit of haze governance by combining the conditional value method. And compared with the average estimation method based on Spike model. According to the binary Logistic regression model, it is found that the willingness to pay for the governance of haze is related to the necessity of the government to take measures to govern haze and the necessity of the public to take measures to govern haze. The governance benefit of Jiangsu haze estimated by CVM is 17.313 billion yuan, while that of Jiangsu haze based on Spike model is 9.532 billion yuan. Because the model assumption of the latter is too idealized, it is more accurate to utilize CVM for the benefit of haze governance in Jiangsu Province, which means that at least 17.313 billion yuan is needed to ease the situation of haze in Jiangsu Province. In chapter 5, based on the Romer model, we construct the endogenous economic growth model of haze and fit the model with the panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government from 2011 to 2015. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the economic effect of haze and the stock of human capital, the amount of labor involvement and the stock of physical capital, among which the material capital stock has the most significant effect on promoting economic growth. The positive correlation between haze economic effect and haze pollution damage and pressure shows that the rapid economic development of our country is at the expense of air environment and does not accord with the environmental Kuznets curve. Haze management can not be separated from the support of technical level and pollution control. Only by improving the level of technological innovation, reducing energy consumption, increasing government control, and increasing the cost and intensity of haze treatment, can we solve the problem of haze pollution in China. The sixth chapter provides policy suggestions from four aspects: perfecting the system of laws and regulations, establishing the linkage mechanism of environmental supervision, optimizing the industrial layout, adjusting the energy structure and strengthening the scientific and technological innovation of environmental protection, and puts forward the prospect of this study.
【學位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F124;X513

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