本文選題：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu) + 碳排放��； 參考：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文將投入產(chǎn)出表和假設(shè)抽取法相結(jié)合，分析我國自2002年至2010年產(chǎn)業(yè)間的二氧化碳轉(zhuǎn)移問題，引入需求排放、產(chǎn)出排放等概念進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步的分析，最后構(gòu)建一個系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型，分析不同情景下我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和碳排放量等指標(biāo)的趨勢，探討我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整方向。 本文一共分為五章：第一章主要介紹產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)理論的背景，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)理論模型的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀等；第二章通過分析我國的碳排放現(xiàn)狀，對比全球部分發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家的碳排放現(xiàn)狀，分析發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和碳排放方面的差異；第三章結(jié)合投入產(chǎn)出法和假設(shè)抽取法，將我國42個部門合并為21個部門后再合并成八大產(chǎn)業(yè)群，從二氧化碳需求排放量、產(chǎn)出排放量等指標(biāo)分別分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)間是存在碳轉(zhuǎn)移的，而能源行業(yè)作為最大的二氧化碳“輸出者”，其本身的內(nèi)部排放占了需求排放的90%，說明能源行業(yè)基本上都是自給自足、以內(nèi)部排放為主的，能源行業(yè)在較大程度上是為其他產(chǎn)業(yè)群承擔(dān)了部分的二氧化碳排放量；第四章在上一章的基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了一個包含經(jīng)濟(jì)子系統(tǒng)、環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)、人口子系統(tǒng)的模型，假定三種不同的情景方案，，預(yù)測到2030年為止GDP、碳排放總量等指標(biāo)的不同變化，發(fā)現(xiàn)僅對服務(wù)業(yè)、高新技術(shù)行業(yè)等“低碳行業(yè)”投入大量的資金，是難以達(dá)到產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整同時降低碳排放這一目標(biāo)的，而綜合考慮能源行業(yè)等“高碳行業(yè)”與“低碳行業(yè)”間存在的二氧化碳轉(zhuǎn)移現(xiàn)象，可以更好地實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級；第五章是總結(jié)與展望，在總結(jié)前四章的結(jié)論后，提出了后續(xù)的研究可進(jìn)行的方向。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the input-output table and the hypothesis extraction method are combined to analyze the problem of carbon dioxide transfer between industries from 2002 to 2010, and the concepts of demand emission and output emission are introduced for further analysis. Finally, a system dynamics model is constructed to analyze the trends of China's economic growth and carbon emissions under different scenarios, and to explore the direction of industrial structure adjustment in China. This paper is divided into five chapters: the first chapter mainly introduces the background of industrial structure theory, the domestic and foreign research status of industrial structure theory model, the second chapter analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions in China. By comparing the current situation of carbon emissions between some developed and developing countries, the paper analyzes the differences in industrial structure and carbon emissions between developed and developing countries. Chapter three combines the input-output method and hypothetical extraction method. After merging 42 departments in China into 21 departments and then merging them into eight industrial clusters, it is found that carbon transfer exists between industries through analysis of carbon dioxide demand emissions, output emissions and other indicators. As the largest "exporter" of carbon dioxide, the energy industry accounts for 90 percent of the required emissions, indicating that the energy industry is basically self-sufficient and mainly self-contained. The energy industry is responsible for some of the carbon dioxide emissions for other industrial groups. Chapter four builds a model of economic subsystem, environmental subsystem and population subsystem based on the previous chapter. Assuming that three different scenarios predict different changes in GDPand total carbon emissions by 2030, it turns out that only "low-carbon industries" such as services and high-tech industries have invested a lot of money. It is difficult to achieve the goal of adjusting industrial structure and reducing carbon emissions. Considering the phenomenon of carbon dioxide transfer between "high carbon industry" and "low carbon industry", such as energy industry, the upgrading of industrial structure can be better realized. Chapter five is a summary and prospect. After summarizing the conclusions of the first four chapters, the author puts forward the possible directions for further research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124;X22

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