本文選題：遼寧省 + 民間金融��； 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為金融體系的重要組成部分,民間金融與商業(yè)銀行等正規(guī)金融機(jī)構(gòu)既協(xié)同補(bǔ)充又相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng),服務(wù)范圍、業(yè)務(wù)類型有所交叉又各有側(cè)重,對(duì)于提高居民整體福利水平,推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)特別是中小民營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)了重要作用。但是民間金融于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展來(lái)說(shuō)并不是只有良性的積極作用,因?yàn)橄嚓P(guān)法律不明確、不健全,處于監(jiān)管體系之外等原因的存在,民間金融發(fā)展過(guò)程難免有一些消極的灰色效用：容易為不法分子所利用,沖擊經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,甚至可以說(shuō)其對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展來(lái)說(shuō)是一把雙刃劍。隨著民營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展壯大,遼寧民間金融業(yè)已具備一定規(guī)模,但是當(dāng)前遼寧民間金融還沒(méi)有得到充分的認(rèn)識(shí)和挖掘,那么本文希望從實(shí)證的角度出發(fā)量化遼寧民間金融分析,研究其對(duì)遼寧宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展究竟會(huì)產(chǎn)生何種影響,究竟是推動(dòng)還是阻滯,是積極的良性作用大還是消極的灰色作用大,并在此基礎(chǔ)上針對(duì)如何促進(jìn)民間金融陽(yáng)光、健康發(fā)展,規(guī)范民間金融減少其負(fù)面沖擊提供建議,為把握民間金融定位,明確把控方向提供一定參考。鑒于此,本文首先對(duì)遼寧民間金融的基本情況、現(xiàn)狀特點(diǎn)以及發(fā)展原因進(jìn)行了分析,認(rèn)定遼寧民間金融是順應(yīng)市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)、滿足市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)主體強(qiáng)烈需求的理性選擇的結(jié)果,也可以說(shuō)是經(jīng)濟(jì)主體與政府管制進(jìn)行博弈的均衡結(jié)果。在定性分析比較民間金融對(duì)遼寧經(jīng)濟(jì)可能的利弊方面基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)行本文的實(shí)證部分。通過(guò)采用間接估算法,筆者對(duì)遼寧省及各市民間金融情況進(jìn)行了測(cè)算,結(jié)果顯示遼寧民間金融整體上呈上漲趨勢(shì),但是相對(duì)于正規(guī)金融波動(dòng)性更大。在具體的實(shí)證過(guò)程中,本文從整體和細(xì)化分析兩個(gè)角度對(duì)民間金融與遼寧經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系進(jìn)行計(jì)量分析并得出以下結(jié)論：第一,民間金融與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系,民間金融的變動(dòng)會(huì)引起GDP的同向變動(dòng)且二者互為格蘭杰因果關(guān)系；第二,民間金融與遼寧第二、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)均存在顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,說(shuō)明民間金融能夠在一定程度上促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模擴(kuò)大進(jìn)而產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),第三,民間金融對(duì)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的作用影響略大于第二產(chǎn)業(yè),這可能是由于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中小企業(yè)多融資需求旺盛造成的。最后本文得出民間金融對(duì)遼寧經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展來(lái)說(shuō)整體上良性效應(yīng)大于消極影響,而且民間金融可能與正規(guī)金融長(zhǎng)期共生并存,共同發(fā)展。進(jìn)而,根據(jù)以上分析結(jié)果及遼寧實(shí)際情況,本文針對(duì)規(guī)范引導(dǎo),有效利用民間金融促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the financial system, formal financial institutions, such as private finance and commercial banks, both complement and compete with each other. The scope of services, business types and types of business are intersected and focused on each other, in order to improve the overall welfare level of the residents. Promoting economic growth, especially small and medium-sized private economic growth has contributed an important role. But private finance is not only positive for economic development, because the relevant laws are unclear, imperfect, and outside the regulatory system. The development process of folk finance inevitably has some negative grey utility: it is easy to be used by lawbreakers, and it can be said to be a double-edged sword to the development of economy and the stable development of society. With the development of private economy, Liaoning folk finance has a certain scale, but at present Liaoning folk finance has not been fully understood and excavated. So this paper hopes to quantify Liaoning folk finance analysis from the perspective of empirical analysis. To study whether it will have any impact on the development of Liaoning's macro economy, whether it is to promote or block, whether it is a positive positive role or a negative grey role, and on this basis, in view of how to promote the private financial sunshine and develop healthily. Standardizing private finance to reduce its negative impact provides suggestions for grasping the position of folk finance and providing certain reference for controlling direction. In view of this, this paper first analyzes the basic situation, current characteristics and development reasons of Liaoning folk finance, and concludes that Liaoning folk finance is the result of rational choice that conforms to the market trend and meets the strong demand of the market economy main body. It can also be said to be the equilibrium result of the game between economic subject and government regulation. On the basis of qualitative analysis and comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of folk finance to Liaoning economy, the empirical part of this paper is carried out. By using indirect estimation method, the author calculates the situation of private finance in Liaoning province and other cities. The result shows that the private finance in Liaoning Province is on the whole rising trend, but the volatility is greater than that of formal finance. In the concrete demonstration process, this article carries on the econometric analysis to the non-government finance and the Liaoning economic development from the whole and the detailed analysis two angles, and draws the following conclusions: first, the folk finance and the economic growth have the long-term stable cointegration relation. The change of folk finance will cause the codirection change of GDP and the causality between them is Granger causality. Secondly, there is a significant positive correlation between folk finance and the second and third industries of Liaoning. It shows that private finance can to some extent promote the expansion of industrial scale and then upgrade the industrial structure. Third, the effect of private finance on the tertiary industry is slightly greater than that of the secondary industry. This may be due to the tertiary industry SMEs more financing demand caused by. Finally, this paper concludes that the overall positive effect of private finance on Liaoning economic development is greater than the negative effect, and private finance may coexist with formal finance for a long time and develop together. Then, according to the above analysis results and the actual situation in Liaoning Province, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on the guidance of norms and the effective use of private finance to promote economic development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F832.7;F127

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