發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-26 14:12

  本文選題：全球氣候變化 + 城市社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響��； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)80年代以來,以氣候變暖為標(biāo)志的全球氣候變化逐漸引起世界各國政府、國際組織和科學(xué)工作者的高度重視和廣泛關(guān)注,業(yè)已成為當(dāng)代人類社會(huì)所面臨的重大“全球問題”之一。聯(lián)合國授權(quán)的政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)(IPCC)就氣候變化問題分別在1990、1995、2001、2007、2012年發(fā)布了五次評估報(bào)告,指出全球氣候變化的產(chǎn)生與人類活動(dòng)的持續(xù)影響息息相關(guān),并將引發(fā)一系列的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、生態(tài)和政治問題,其對人類社會(huì)的影響范圍和影響深度將遠(yuǎn)超全球環(huán)境氣候問題本身。國內(nèi)外的眾多學(xué)者也從不同的學(xué)科領(lǐng)域和視角對全球氣候變化及其脆弱性問題開展了大量的研究,研究重點(diǎn)也已從全球自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)逐漸開始轉(zhuǎn)向全球社會(huì)-經(jīng)濟(jì)-生態(tài)復(fù)合系統(tǒng),同時(shí)逐漸開始聚焦于全球氣候變化對人類社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響機(jī)理、影響途徑及其相應(yīng)的減緩及防范對策研究。 全球氣候變化對人類社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,最集中地體現(xiàn)在沿海城市和沿海地區(qū)。因?yàn)楹０稁鞘澜缬泻０秶液偷貐^(qū)人口、產(chǎn)業(yè)、城市、財(cái)富高度集聚的黃金地帶,同時(shí)亦是海、陸兩大自然地理單元的結(jié)合部,最易受到來自全球氣候變暖所造成或加劇的海平面上升、風(fēng)暴潮、鹽水入侵、海岸侵蝕、濕地生態(tài)退化等海洋災(zāi)害和沿海生態(tài)事件的影響。特別是在河口海岸地區(qū),由于地處陸、河、海三者的交匯處,更是具有人類強(qiáng)勢活動(dòng)與自然-人工復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜、敏感、脆弱的雙重特征和疊加因素,一旦受到全球氣候變化的影響,極易產(chǎn)生一系列衍生效應(yīng)和放大效應(yīng),從而造成嚴(yán)重的人員傷亡和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,并對其他地區(qū)產(chǎn)生明顯的影響和波及效應(yīng)。因此,必須把全球氣候變化問題的研究與防范重點(diǎn)放在沿海地區(qū)尤其是河口海岸地區(qū)。 長江三角洲地區(qū)地處我國海岸帶的中部,扼居我國第一大河、世界第三大河長江的入�？陂T,構(gòu)成了典型的河口城市及河口海岸地區(qū)。這里既是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)最發(fā)達(dá)的精粹之地和最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)中心城市上海之所在,同時(shí)也是人地關(guān)系最為復(fù)雜、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)最為脆弱、對全球氣候變化的影響最為敏感和社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的波及效應(yīng)、放大效應(yīng)最為突出的城市化地區(qū)。因此,深入開展全球氣候變化對長三角沿海地區(qū)的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的研究,不僅對上海及長三角城市群的防災(zāi)減災(zāi)、轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展及可持續(xù)發(fā)展有著十分重要的理論和實(shí)踐意義,對全國及全球其他沿海城市化區(qū)域積極應(yīng)對全球氣候變化的研究和實(shí)踐也具有積極的借鑒價(jià)值。 基于上述研究背景,并且作為國家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金一般項(xiàng)目“全球氣候變化對長三角沿海地區(qū)的影響研究”(項(xiàng)目編號13BJL087)的重要研究成果,本論文將秉承理論與實(shí)際緊密結(jié)合、多學(xué)科交叉融合的研究思路,在全面概括梳理地理學(xué)、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、災(zāi)害學(xué)、社會(huì)學(xué)等相關(guān)理論以及國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,以長三角河口海岸地區(qū)8市為實(shí)證分析研究對象,采用可變模糊識別模型、P-S-R(壓力-狀態(tài)-響應(yīng)力)模型和基于GIS系統(tǒng)平臺(tái)之上的未來情景模擬分析等多種研究方法和分析手段,深入開展全球氣候變化對河口海岸城市化地區(qū)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響及其評價(jià)研究,旨在從理論上定性辨識全球氣候變化與人類社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的耦合互動(dòng)關(guān)系以及全球氣候變化影響人類社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的機(jī)理和途徑,在實(shí)證上定量評價(jià)與測度長三角河口海岸地區(qū)復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的自身協(xié)調(diào)程度、面對全球氣候變化影響的脆弱性程度,以及該地區(qū)應(yīng)對全球氣候變化的未來空間情景模擬狀況,進(jìn)而為政府加強(qiáng)防范應(yīng)對措施和學(xué)界進(jìn)一步深入研究提供決策參考依據(jù)和實(shí)證分析案例。本文共分為七章： 第一章是緒論。本章闡述了本文的研究背景、意義、內(nèi)容、框架、方法、主要研究思路及技術(shù)路線等,并對重要的相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行了界定。 第二章是理論基礎(chǔ)、文獻(xiàn)綜述及評價(jià)方法。本章通過系統(tǒng)闡述與全球氣候變化影響密切相關(guān)的地理學(xué)、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、災(zāi)害學(xué)、社會(huì)學(xué)等相關(guān)理論和全面梳理、評述國內(nèi)外學(xué)界的相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn),從理論上探索氣候變化與人類社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的耦合互動(dòng)關(guān)系,分析氣候變化影響城市復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的機(jī)理與途徑,并在總結(jié)和借鑒已有的氣候影響脆弱性評估模型的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了長三角河口海岸地區(qū)氣候變化脆弱性綜合評價(jià)模型,為全文奠定了理論和方法論的基礎(chǔ)。 第三章是長三角河口海岸地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)環(huán)境現(xiàn)狀與協(xié)調(diào)度評述。本章基于對該地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、生態(tài)環(huán)境三大系統(tǒng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀的全面分析,構(gòu)建了該地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)與環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)度的評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并通過可變模糊識別方法對該地區(qū)及其內(nèi)部8市在氣候變化影響背景下的協(xié)調(diào)性狀況開展了系統(tǒng)的定量評估及空間比較分析。 第四章是全球氣候變化對上海及長三角河口海岸地區(qū)復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的影響評價(jià)。本章通過建立氣候變化脆弱性綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,從危險(xiǎn)度、敏感度和適應(yīng)度等三個(gè)分級指標(biāo)對2001-2012年間上海復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的氣候變化脆弱度進(jìn)行了時(shí)序分析和定量測度,對該地區(qū)8市的氣候變化脆弱度開展了綜合比較評估。 第五章是全球氣候變化對上海城市復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)影響的空間評價(jià)。本章以上海作為典型的城市化地區(qū),通過對上海城市復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)氣候變化影響的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子篩選,基于海平面上升、地面沉降和風(fēng)暴潮等三種災(zāi)害情景的模擬評估方法,對未來20年(2030年)至40年(2050年)上海城市復(fù)合生態(tài)系統(tǒng)在全球氣候變化影響下的空間暴露性和脆弱性進(jìn)行了全面的評估分析。 第六章是長三角河口海岸地區(qū)應(yīng)對全球氣候變化的措施與對策。本章通過上述實(shí)證分析,闡述了該地區(qū)應(yīng)對氣候變化的指導(dǎo)思想和基本原則,確定了應(yīng)對的重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域,并提出了可供政府決策參考的具體配套措施。 第七章是結(jié)論與研究展望。本章對全文的理論探索與實(shí)證研究進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)總結(jié),并提出了后續(xù)研究的展望。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, global climate change, marked by climate warming, has gradually attracted the attention and attention of governments of all countries, international organizations and scientists, and has become one of the major "global problems" faced by the contemporary human society. The United Nations authorized Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC) is angry. The issue of climate change has been published five times in 19901995200120072012, pointing out that the emergence of global climate change is closely related to the continuous impact of human activities, and will lead to a series of global economic, social, ecological and political issues. The scope and depth of its impact on human society will be far beyond the global environmental climate. Many scholars at home and abroad have also carried out a great deal of research on global climate change and its vulnerability from different disciplines and perspectives. The focus has gradually shifted from the global natural ecosystem to the global socio economy ecological complex system, and gradually began to focus on the global climate change for human society. The influence mechanism of the economy, the way of its influence and the corresponding mitigation and countermeasures are studied.
The influence of global climate change on the human society and economy is most concentrated in coastal cities and coastal areas. Because the coastal zone is a gold zone with a high concentration of population, industry, city and wealth in the world with coastal countries and regions, it is also the combination of the marine and land two nature Geographic monographs, which is most easily created by global warming. The effects of sea level rise, storm surge, brine invasion, coastal erosion, ecological degradation of wetlands and other marine disasters and coastal ecological events, especially in the estuarine and coastal areas, which are located at the intersection of the three people of land, river and sea, are more complex, sensitive and vulnerable to the complex, sensitive and fragile ecosystem of human beings and natural artificial complex ecosystems. Characteristics and superposition factors, once affected by global climate change, are highly susceptible to a series of derivatives and amplification effects, resulting in serious casualties and social and economic losses, and a significant impact and effect on other areas. Therefore, the research and prevention of global climate change must be focused on the coastal areas. The area is especially the estuarine and coastal area.
The Yangtze River Delta is located in the middle of the coastal zone of China, and occupies the first river in our country. The entrance of the third largest river in the world is the typical estuarine city and estuarine coastal area. This is not only the most developed and essential place of China's economy and the largest economic center of Shanghai, but also the most complex relationship between human and land. The ecological system is most vulnerable, the most sensitive to global climate change and the influence of socioeconomic, and the most prominent urbanization area. Therefore, the study of the social and economic impact of global climate change on the coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta is not only for the disaster prevention and reduction, the transformation and development of Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta city group. And sustainable development has a very important theoretical and practical significance. It also has a positive reference value for the research and practice of the whole country and other coastal cities in the world to actively deal with the global climate change.
Based on the above research background, and as an important research result of the general project of the National Social Science Fund "the impact of global climate change on the coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta" (project number 13BJL087), this paper will carry out a comprehensive summary of geography, through a comprehensive summary of the research ideas of the combination of theory and practice and interdisciplinary integration of multidisciplinary. On the basis of the related theories of economics, disaster science and sociology, as well as the relevant research results at home and abroad, 8 cities in the Yangtze River Delta estuary and coastal areas are taken as the empirical research. The variable fuzzy recognition model, the P-S-R (pressure state response force) model and the future scenario simulation analysis based on the GIS system platform are used. The impact of global climate change on the socio-economic development of the estuarine and coastal urbanization area and its evaluation are analyzed in order to identify the coupling interaction relationship between global climate change and human social and economic development in theory and the mechanism and ways of global climate change affecting human social and economic development. On the basis of quantitative evaluation and measurement of the coordination degree of the complex ecosystem in the coastal area of the Yangtze River Delta, the vulnerability of the impact of global climate change, and the future space scenario simulation of the region's response to global climate change, thus providing the government to strengthen the prevention and response measures and the further in-depth study of the academic community to provide decision-making reference. This paper is divided into seven chapters: a case study and a case study.
The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter describes the research background, significance, content, framework, methods, main research ideas and technical routes, and defines important related concepts.
The second chapter is the theoretical basis, literature review and evaluation methods. This chapter expounds the relevant theories and comprehensive combing of geography, economics, disaster science and sociology, which is closely related to the influence of global climate change, and reviews relevant research literature at home and abroad, and explores the coupling interaction between climate change and human society and economy in theory. On the basis of summarizing and drawing on the existing model of climate impact vulnerability assessment, a comprehensive evaluation model of climate change vulnerability in the coastal area of the Yangtze River Delta is built on the basis of summarizing and drawing on the existing model of climate impact vulnerability assessment, which lays the foundation for the full text of the theory and methodology.
The third chapter is a review of the status and coordination degree of economic and social environment in the estuary and coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the three systems of economic, social and ecological environment in the region, this chapter constructs the evaluation index system of the economic, social and environmental coordination of the region. The coordination of 8 cities under the background of climate change has been quantitatively evaluated and compared.
The fourth chapter is the assessment of the impact of global climate change on the composite ecosystem in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta estuary and coastal areas. Through the establishment of a comprehensive evaluation index system for climate change vulnerability, the vulnerability of the Shanghai complex ecosystem in the period of 2001-2012 years is carried out from three levels of risk, sensitivity and adaptation. Time series analysis and quantitative measurement were used to conduct a comprehensive comparative assessment of the vulnerability of the 8 cities in the region.
The fifth chapter is the spatial evaluation of the impact of global climate change on the urban complex ecosystem in Shanghai. This chapter takes Shanghai as a typical urbanized area, through the screening of the risk factors affecting the climate change of the urban composite ecosystem in Shanghai, and the simulation evaluation method based on the sea level rise, the ground subsidence and the storm tide, and so on. The spatial exposure and vulnerability of Shanghai urban complex ecosystem under the influence of global climate change in the next 20 years (2030) to 40 years (2050) were evaluated and analyzed.
The sixth chapter is the measures and Countermeasures to deal with the global climate change in the estuary and coastal areas of the Yangtze River Delta. Through the above empirical analysis, this chapter expounds the guiding ideology and basic principles of the region's response to climate change, determines the key areas to deal with, and puts forward specific supporting measures for the government's decision to make a reference.
The seventh chapter is the conclusion and research prospect. This chapter summarizes the theoretical exploration and empirical research in detail and puts forward the prospects for further research.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127;P467
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本文編號：1806372