本文選題：江蘇省 + 區(qū)域碳排放　； 參考：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：江蘇省作為人均GDP占全國第一，GDP總量?jī)H次與廣東省的經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)省，其發(fā)達(dá)的經(jīng)濟(jì)水平背后隱藏的驚人的二氧化碳排放量不容小覷，在2007年中國科學(xué)院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所發(fā)表的報(bào)告中[1]，江蘇省被列為相對(duì)高碳區(qū)，而經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力與其差不多的廣東省和浙江省則都是低碳區(qū)域。再加上江蘇省極不平衡的區(qū)域發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，江蘇省的碳排放情況尤顯復(fù)雜，亟需對(duì)碳排放進(jìn)行更具體更精確的核算和分析，而城市碳排放清單為此提供了很好的參考。 城市碳排放清單是從《京都議定書》的國家溫室氣體排放清單發(fā)展而來，目前已經(jīng)在國內(nèi)外的一些典型大城市和城市區(qū)域得到了很不錯(cuò)的實(shí)證引用。因此，筆者基于2000年到2011年江蘇省13個(gè)城市的能源消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)江蘇省蘇南、蘇中、蘇北三大區(qū)域進(jìn)行了碳排放清單的編制。然后基于城市和區(qū)域碳排放清單內(nèi)容，歸納總結(jié)出不同城市，特別是不同區(qū)域的排放特征。并利用STIRPAT模型，用Eviews進(jìn)行變截距和變系數(shù)的回歸分析，分別研究了區(qū)域排放的總體趨勢(shì)特征和區(qū)域排放的個(gè)體結(jié)構(gòu)區(qū)別。得出人口規(guī)模、人口結(jié)構(gòu)、收入水平、消費(fèi)水平、技術(shù)因素是影響區(qū)域碳排放的主要因素。而且，從整體角度和從個(gè)體區(qū)域角度考察的江蘇省區(qū)域碳排放的影響因素和特征存在差異。第一、城市化率（即人口結(jié)構(gòu)）對(duì)江蘇省整體區(qū)域的碳排放作用是城市化率提高引起碳排放總量下降。但是在蘇南和蘇中地區(qū)，城市化率的提高則會(huì)引起碳排放總量的提高，只有在蘇北地區(qū)，城市化率的提高才會(huì)引起碳排放總量的下降。第二、人均消費(fèi)支出對(duì)于江蘇省整體區(qū)域的碳排放作用是正面影響，即人均消費(fèi)的支出會(huì)引起碳排放總量的提高。但是蘇南地區(qū)的城鎮(zhèn)人均消費(fèi)支出增加，反而會(huì)引起碳排放總量的減少。最后，筆者對(duì)江蘇省整體碳排放和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平做了對(duì)數(shù)EKC曲線的驗(yàn)證，進(jìn)一步佐證了在之前STIRPAT模型中的結(jié)論之一：經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)碳排放具有促進(jìn)作用，經(jīng)濟(jì)越發(fā)達(dá)，碳排放總量越多。 在文章的結(jié)尾，通過對(duì)江蘇省三大區(qū)域的碳排放清單核算和特征研究，筆者提出了江蘇省碳減排的政策建議：第一、建立完整和互動(dòng)的城市碳排放清單體系，及時(shí)把握碳排放現(xiàn)狀。第二、明確城市發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略，促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的健康升級(jí)。第三、發(fā)展綠色能源，優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu)。第四、提高全民節(jié)能意識(shí)，，引導(dǎo)消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí)。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu Province, as the first GDP per capita in the country, is only next to Guangdong Province, which has a strong economy. The astonishing amount of carbon dioxide emissions hidden behind its developed economic level cannot be underestimated. In a 2007 report published by the Institute of Geography and Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Jiangsu Province was listed as a relatively high carbon region, while Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, where economic power was comparable, were low carbon regions. In addition, due to the unbalanced regional development in Jiangsu Province, the situation of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province is especially complex, so it is urgent to carry out more concrete and accurate accounting and analysis of carbon emissions, and the urban carbon emission inventory provides a good reference for this purpose. The urban carbon emission inventory is developed from the national greenhouse gas emission inventory of Kyoto Protocol, which has been used in some typical big cities and urban areas at home and abroad. Therefore, based on the energy consumption data of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2011, the author compiled the carbon emission inventory for the three regions of Jiangsu Province, including Southern Jiangsu, Middle Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu. Then, based on the content of urban and regional carbon inventory, the emission characteristics of different cities, especially different regions, are summarized. Using STIRPAT model and Eviews regression analysis of variable intercept and variable coefficient, the general trend characteristics of regional emissions and the individual structure differences of regional emissions are studied respectively. It is concluded that population size, population structure, income level, consumption level and technical factors are the main factors affecting regional carbon emissions. Moreover, the factors and characteristics of regional carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province are different from the overall and individual regional perspectives. Firstly, the effect of urbanization rate (population structure) on the total carbon emission of Jiangsu province is that the increase of urbanization rate leads to the decrease of total carbon emission. However, the increase of urbanization rate will lead to the increase of total carbon emissions in southern and central Jiangsu, and only in northern Jiangsu, the increase of urbanization rate will lead to the decrease of total carbon emissions. Second, the per capita consumption expenditure has a positive effect on the carbon emissions of the whole region of Jiangsu Province, that is, the per capita consumption expenditure will lead to the increase of the total amount of carbon emissions. However, the increase of per capita consumption expenditure in southern Jiangsu will lead to a decrease in total carbon emissions. Finally, the author verifies the logarithmic EKC curve of the whole carbon emission and economic development level of Jiangsu Province, which further supports one of the conclusions in the previous STIRPAT model: the economy has a promoting effect on carbon emissions, the more developed the economy, the more developed the economy is. The more total carbon emissions. At the end of the article, the author puts forward the policy suggestions of carbon emission reduction in Jiangsu province by studying the accounting and characteristics of carbon emission inventory in three regions of Jiangsu province: first, to establish a complete and interactive urban carbon inventory system. Timely grasp the status of carbon emissions. Second, clear urban development strategy to promote the healthy upgrading of industrial structure. Third, develop green energy and optimize energy structure. Fourth, improve the awareness of energy conservation among the whole people and guide the upgrading of consumption structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：X321;F127

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