本文選題：貨幣替代 + 貨幣反替代��； 參考：《中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：自改革開放以來,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速健康發(fā)展,為人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn)提供了堅(jiān)實(shí)的后盾。中國(guó)貿(mào)易的迅速發(fā)展以及金融市場(chǎng)的不斷完善,其深度和廣度也在不斷的擴(kuò)大,這些都為人民幣的國(guó)際化提供了重要的價(jià)值支撐和機(jī)制支撐�？v觀發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的貨幣的發(fā)展歷程,在其國(guó)際化的進(jìn)程中必然伴隨著貨幣替代與反替代的不斷交替的出現(xiàn),人民幣的國(guó)際化提升了人民幣在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位,不斷強(qiáng)化了人民幣在本國(guó)內(nèi)部對(duì)外幣的反替代,同時(shí),也強(qiáng)化了人民幣在周邊國(guó)家和區(qū)域內(nèi)對(duì)其本幣的替代。 自匯改以來,在憑借中國(guó)強(qiáng)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力,人民幣長(zhǎng)期處于升值態(tài)勢(shì)下,人民幣對(duì)外幣的反替代的規(guī)模和作用正在逐步的超越外幣對(duì)人民幣的替代。在反替代占據(jù)主導(dǎo)作用的情況下,必然會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)以及匯率、股票、地產(chǎn)等產(chǎn)生相應(yīng)的影響,首先會(huì)降低貨幣的政策的獨(dú)立性,同時(shí)會(huì)對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量產(chǎn)生一定的影響,進(jìn)而影響CPI等。對(duì)匯率而言會(huì)影響匯率的形成機(jī)制,同時(shí),貨幣反替代必然導(dǎo)致大量的資本流入國(guó)內(nèi),從而對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)造成一定的沖擊。 從貨幣競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的角度來看,貨幣替代與反替代是貨幣競(jìng)爭(zhēng)結(jié)果,貨幣反替代則是“良幣驅(qū)逐劣幣”市場(chǎng)選擇的過程。過度的替代與反替代必然會(huì)對(duì)一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成嚴(yán)重的影響,在現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)的金融市場(chǎng)和法律制度雖然有所改善,但是相比美國(guó)等發(fā)達(dá)的金融市場(chǎng)和制度仍然有很多不足之處。為了有效的降低人民幣國(guó)際化以及貨幣替代與反替代帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和沖擊,中國(guó)必須進(jìn)行金融體系的改革,盡力擴(kuò)大匯率的浮動(dòng)范圍,采取更加靈活而有彈性的匯率制度,同時(shí)在國(guó)內(nèi)盡快推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化,有助于降低兩國(guó)利率間的套利行為,減弱了人民幣反替代的規(guī)模和程度,進(jìn)而減緩了對(duì)匯率的沖擊。在保持我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面良好和經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)快速發(fā)展的前提下,審慎有序的推動(dòng)資本賬戶漸進(jìn)開放,與此同時(shí),加強(qiáng)開放體系下的金融監(jiān)管,建立和完善跨境資金流動(dòng)監(jiān)測(cè)體系,合理引導(dǎo)資本的流動(dòng),避免對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成一定的負(fù)面影響。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the rapid and healthy development of China's economy has provided a solid backing for the advancement of RMB internationalization. The rapid development of China's trade and the continuous improvement of financial market, its depth and breadth are also expanding, which provide an important value support and mechanism support for the internationalization of RMB. Throughout the development of developed countries' currency, in the process of its internationalization, currency substitution and anti-substitution continue to appear alternately, the internationalization of RMB has enhanced the status of RMB in the global economy. It has also strengthened the exchange rate of the yuan in the neighboring countries and regions. Since the exchange rate reform, with the strong economic strength of China, the RMB has been in the situation of appreciation for a long time, and the scale and function of the anti-substitution of RMB to foreign currency is gradually surpassing the substitution of foreign currency to RMB. Under the dominant role of anti-substitution, it will inevitably have a corresponding impact on China's macroeconomic, exchange rate, stock, real estate and so on. First of all, it will reduce the independence of monetary policy, and at the same time it will have a certain impact on the money supply. And then influence CPI et al. The formation mechanism of exchange rate will be influenced by the exchange rate. At the same time, the counter-substitution of currency will inevitably lead to a large amount of capital flowing into the country, thus causing a certain impact on the stock market and the real estate market. From the point of view of currency competition, currency substitution and anti-substitution are the result of currency competition, and currency anti-substitution is the process of market choice of "good money expelling bad currency". Excessive substitution and anti-substitution will inevitably have a serious impact on the economy of a country. Although the financial market and legal system of our country have been improved at the present stage, there are still many deficiencies compared with the developed financial markets and institutions such as the United States. In order to effectively reduce the risks and impacts of RMB internationalization and currency substitution and counter-substitution, China must reform its financial system, try its best to expand the floating range of the exchange rate, and adopt a more flexible and flexible exchange rate system. At the same time, pushing forward the interest rate marketization at home as soon as possible will help to reduce the arbitrage behavior between the two countries' interest rates, weaken the scale and extent of the RMB's counter-substitution, and then mitigate the impact on the exchange rate. On the premise of maintaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals and stable and rapid economic development in China, we should prudently and orderly promote the gradual opening of the capital account, and at the same time, strengthen financial supervision under the open system. To establish and perfect the monitoring system of cross-border capital flow, to guide the capital flow rationally and to avoid some negative effects on our economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F832.6

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