基于SVAR模型的河南省區(qū)域創(chuàng)新體系隨機(jī)沖擊的研究
本文選題:區(qū)域創(chuàng)新體系 + 隨機(jī)沖擊。 參考:《大連理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文
【摘要】:河南省區(qū)域創(chuàng)新體系的發(fā)展過程中,必然會(huì)受到隨機(jī)沖擊的影響。本文運(yùn)用1991-2012年河南省時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),選取新產(chǎn)品銷售收入、從事科技活動(dòng)的人員、國(guó)內(nèi)專利申請(qǐng)授權(quán)量、科技論文發(fā)表篇數(shù)、國(guó)外主要檢索工具收錄我國(guó)科技論文篇數(shù)、技術(shù)引進(jìn)經(jīng)費(fèi)、企業(yè)研發(fā)經(jīng)費(fèi)和政府研發(fā)經(jīng)費(fèi)六項(xiàng)指標(biāo),對(duì)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行穩(wěn)定性檢驗(yàn)、Granger因果檢驗(yàn)和協(xié)整關(guān)系分析建立SVAR模型,通過脈沖響應(yīng)分析和方差分解,對(duì)河南省區(qū)域創(chuàng)新體系的隨機(jī)沖擊進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。研究結(jié)果表明,從長(zhǎng)期來看,代表區(qū)域創(chuàng)新能力的新產(chǎn)品銷售收入指標(biāo)主要與企業(yè)研發(fā)經(jīng)費(fèi),從事科技活動(dòng)的人員,國(guó)外主要檢索工具收錄我國(guó)科技論文篇數(shù)三項(xiàng)指標(biāo)存在正向關(guān)系。、與科技論文發(fā)表篇數(shù),國(guó)內(nèi)專利申請(qǐng)授權(quán)量?jī)身?xiàng)指標(biāo)呈負(fù)向關(guān)系。從脈沖響應(yīng)結(jié)果來看,區(qū)域創(chuàng)新能力對(duì)于國(guó)外主要檢索工具收錄我國(guó)科技論文篇數(shù)的隨機(jī)沖擊顯示出迅速的正向響應(yīng)。從時(shí)間上來說,在前期應(yīng)該增加國(guó)外主要檢索工具收錄我國(guó)科技論文篇數(shù)指標(biāo)相關(guān)影響因素的投入,在中長(zhǎng)期應(yīng)該增加科技論文發(fā)表篇數(shù)指標(biāo)相關(guān)因素的投入,在后期應(yīng)該增加企業(yè)研發(fā)經(jīng)費(fèi)的投入。這樣將會(huì)拉動(dòng)河南省區(qū)域創(chuàng)新能力,加快區(qū)域創(chuàng)新體系整體水平上升的速度。進(jìn)一步地,提出提高河南省區(qū)域創(chuàng)新能力的建議。
[Abstract]:The development of regional innovation system in Henan Province is bound to be affected by random impact. Based on the time series data of Henan Province from 1991 to 2012, this paper selects the sales income of new products, personnel engaged in scientific and technological activities, the amount of patent application authorization in China, the number of scientific and technological papers published, and the number of scientific and technological papers published in China by major foreign retrieval tools. Based on the six indexes of technology introduction funds, enterprise R & D funds and government R & D funds, the SVAR model is established by using Granger causality test and cointegration analysis to the relevant data, which is based on impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. The random impact of regional innovation system in Henan Province is empirically analyzed. The results show that, in the long run, the new product sales revenue indicators, which represent the regional innovation capability, are mainly related to the R & D funds of the enterprises and personnel engaged in scientific and technological activities. There is a positive relationship between the three indexes of the number of scientific and technological papers collected by foreign main retrieval tools and the number of papers published in science and technology papers and the negative relationship between the two indexes of the quantity of patent application authorization in China. From the results of impulse response, the regional innovation ability shows a rapid positive response to the random impact of the number of scientific and technological papers collected by major foreign retrieval tools. In terms of time, we should increase the input of factors related to the number of scientific and technological papers published in China in the early stage, and increase the input of related factors in the publication of scientific and technological papers in the medium and long term. In the later period should increase the enterprise research and development funds investment. In this way, the regional innovation ability of Henan Province will be stimulated and the whole level of regional innovation system will be accelerated. Further, some suggestions are put forward to improve the regional innovation ability of Henan Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號(hào)】:F124.3
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