本文選題：全球化 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)��； 參考：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的加速發(fā)展，對不同區(qū)域、國家或地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)空間格局和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生著重要影響。各種沖擊的綜合作用和特定國家或地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的跨國傳導(dǎo)生成了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)周期。經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)影響一切經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)，作為國家宏觀調(diào)控優(yōu)先目標(biāo)的人口就業(yè)必然受到經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的影響。 中國正處在經(jīng)濟(jì)市場化進(jìn)程中，就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)存在著嚴(yán)重的不合理性，就業(yè)問題已然成為十分嚴(yán)峻的社會(huì)問題。2008年，在國際金融危機(jī)影響下，沿海不少外企撤資，促使就業(yè)形勢發(fā)生扭轉(zhuǎn)，大量勞動(dòng)力失業(yè)返鄉(xiāng)。2010年，由于國際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢回暖，沿海企業(yè)又出現(xiàn)招工難和用人荒，給中國勞動(dòng)力就業(yè)問題的解決的增添了巨大壓力。到2013年末，中國就業(yè)人員76977萬人，其中城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)人員38240萬人，大量農(nóng)村富余勞動(dòng)力向非農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移。 經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)對就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的影響不僅關(guān)系到經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和社會(huì)穩(wěn)定，也關(guān)系到個(gè)人安居樂業(yè)的切身利益，因而有必要引起足夠的重視。本文試圖通過機(jī)制探討和實(shí)證分析的方法，，深刻揭示在全球化背景下，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)對就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的影響。這一問題的解決，對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展以及如何應(yīng)對當(dāng)前就業(yè)問題具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文的主要內(nèi)容包括：第一章，國內(nèi)外關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)和就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的研究現(xiàn)狀，以及本文的研究目標(biāo)和方法；第二章，經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的理論分析，為后文奠定理論基礎(chǔ)；第三章，全球化背景下中國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀，為機(jī)制分析和實(shí)證分析提供現(xiàn)實(shí)依據(jù)；第四章，經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)對就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的作用機(jī)制，選擇經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、投資水平、工資水平和技術(shù)進(jìn)步為就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的影響因素，包括直接和間接作用；第五章，基于聯(lián)立方程模型的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)對區(qū)域就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的效應(yīng)分析，分區(qū)域內(nèi)和區(qū)域間效應(yīng)；第六章，基于聯(lián)立方程模型的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)對產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的效應(yīng)分析，分產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)和產(chǎn)業(yè)間效應(yīng)；第七章，在政策層面為促進(jìn)中國就業(yè)的區(qū)域、產(chǎn)業(yè)均衡發(fā)展提出可行性建議；第八章，本文小節(jié)及研究展望。 本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)主要體現(xiàn)在：其一，在機(jī)制探討層面，深入剖析了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)通過影響經(jīng)濟(jì)整體水平、投資因素、工資因素和技術(shù)因素對就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制；其二，在實(shí)證分析層面，使用聯(lián)立方程模型，深刻揭示了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)如何通過區(qū)域和產(chǎn)業(yè)兩個(gè)維度對就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的直接和間接影響；其三，在政策設(shè)計(jì)層面，科學(xué)提出了促進(jìn)中國就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的區(qū)域和產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)政策。
[Abstract]:The accelerated development of economic globalization has an important impact on the spatial pattern and industrial structure of economic activities in different regions, countries or regions.The comprehensive effects of various shocks and the transnational transmission of specific national or regional economic cycles generate the world economic cycle.The fluctuation of economic cycle affects all economic activities. As the priority of national macro-control, population employment is bound to be affected by the fluctuation of economic cycle.China is in the process of economic marketization, the employment structure has serious irrationality, the employment problem has become a very serious social problem. In 2008, under the influence of the international financial crisis, many foreign enterprises along the coast withdrew their capital.In 2010, due to the warming of the international economic situation, there were difficulties in hiring and shortage of employment in coastal enterprises, which added great pressure to the solution of the employment problem of Chinese labor force.By the end of 2013, China had 769.77 million employed people, of whom 382.4 million were employed in cities and towns, and a large number of surplus rural labor were transferred to non-agricultural industries.The impact of economic cycle fluctuation on employment transfer is not only related to economic development and social stability, but also to the vital interests of individuals living and working in peace and contentment, so it is necessary to pay enough attention to it.This paper attempts to reveal the impact of Chinese business cycle fluctuations on employment transfer under the background of globalization by means of mechanism discussion and empirical analysis.The solution of this problem has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustained and healthy development of Chinese economy and how to deal with the current employment problem.The main contents of this paper are as follows: the first chapter, the current situation of domestic and foreign research on business cycle fluctuation and employment transfer, as well as the research objectives and methods of this paper, the second chapter, the theoretical analysis of business cycle fluctuation and employment transfer,The third chapter, the current situation of Chinese business cycle fluctuation and employment structure under the background of globalization, provides the realistic basis for mechanism analysis and empirical analysis; the fourth chapter, the role mechanism of business cycle fluctuation on employment transfer, the third chapter, the current situation of China's economic cycle fluctuation and employment structure under the background of globalization, provides the realistic basis for mechanism analysis and empirical analysis.Economic growth, investment level, wage level and technological progress are selected as the influencing factors of employment transfer, including direct and indirect effects. Chapter 5, the effect of economic cycle fluctuation on regional employment transfer based on simultaneous equation model is analyzed.Chapter 6, the analysis of the effect of the economic cycle fluctuation on the industrial employment transfer based on the simultaneous equation model, the intra-industry and inter-industry effects; the seventh chapter, the policy level for promoting China's employment region,Put forward the feasible suggestion of industry balanced development; Chapter 8, this article section and research prospect.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in: first, at the level of mechanism discussion, it deeply analyzes the transmission mechanism of Chinese economic cycle fluctuation to employment transfer through influencing the overall level of economy, investment factor, wage factor and technology factor.At the level of empirical analysis, using the simultaneous equation model, this paper deeply reveals how Chinese business cycle fluctuations affect employment transfer directly and indirectly through two dimensions of region and industry. Thirdly, at the level of policy design,The regional and industrial employment policies that promote the optimization of China's employment structure are put forward scientifically.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.8;F249.2

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