本文選題：區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期　切入點：同步性　出處：《東北師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期同步性及其影響因素研究是區(qū)域經(jīng)濟學(xué)研究中的重要領(lǐng)域,就中國而言,該研究對于制定區(qū)域政策以縮小地區(qū)差距,促進區(qū)域合作與協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展有重要意義。為此,本文選取中國30個省、自治區(qū)和直轄市(西藏自治區(qū)除外)2005年第一季度至2016年第四季度的地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值數(shù)據(jù),經(jīng)消脹,季節(jié)調(diào)整后,運用HP濾波方法將地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值數(shù)據(jù)分解為趨勢成分和周期成分,用以分析中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期波動,然后利用周期變量計算兩兩地區(qū)之間的皮爾遜相關(guān)系數(shù)考察中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期的同步性程度,并利用Fisher轉(zhuǎn)換方法把各省之間的兩兩相關(guān)系數(shù)轉(zhuǎn)化為總體相關(guān)系數(shù),衡量中國整體區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期同步性。在此基礎(chǔ)上,運用回歸方法檢驗地方財政政策差異、中央財政政策差異、區(qū)域雙邊貿(mào)易變量、區(qū)域間貿(mào)易開放度變量、區(qū)域間產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)差異變量以及引力變量等因素對中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期同步性的影響。本文共分為以下五個部分:第一部分為引言,主要介紹了本文的研究背景和研究意義,系統(tǒng)地歸納了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期、同步性及其影響因素的相關(guān)文獻研究,并在此基礎(chǔ)上確定了本文的研究方向、研究思路、研究內(nèi)容以及研究方法。第二部分為中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期的測度與分析,主要包括區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期測度方法的選擇、樣本數(shù)據(jù)的選取、度量指標(biāo)的計算以及中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期波動的相關(guān)分析。第三部分為中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期同步性程度的測算與分析,首先選取區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期同步性的測度方法,根據(jù)已獲得的經(jīng)濟周期變量,測算并分析中國各地區(qū)間以及整體區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期同步性程度。第四部分是主要采用回歸分析的方法對中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期同步性的影響因素進行實證研究,包括中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期同步性各項影響因素的確定、指標(biāo)選取、建立實證模型、數(shù)據(jù)處理以及估計結(jié)果分析。第五部分為結(jié)論與政策啟示,主要包括研究結(jié)論、政策啟示以及展望和不足。根據(jù)本文的估計結(jié)果歸納研究結(jié)論,同時獲取相應(yīng)政策啟示,并總結(jié)本文研究的不足之處。
[Abstract]:The regional economic cycle synchronization and its influencing factors is an important research field of regional economics, it Chinese, the study for the development of regional policy to narrow the gap between regions, it has important significance in promoting regional cooperation and coordination development. Therefore, this paper selects 30 China Province, autonomous regions and municipalities (except Tibet Autonomous Region) GDP data, the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2016 by Xiaozhang, seasonally adjusted, using the HP filtering method to GDP data is decomposed into trend components and cycle components, to the analysis of Chinese regional economic cycle, then the cycle variables Pearson correlation coefficient calculated between the 22 areas of synchronization of the level of regional economic China cycle, and the use of Fisher conversion method to 22 correlation coefficients between the provinces into the overall correlation coefficient, measure the whole country area Domain business cycle synchronization. On this basis, using the regression method to test differences in local fiscal policy, the central fiscal policy differences, regional and bilateral trade variables, inter regional trade openness variables. The effect of inter regional differences in industrial structure variables and gravity variables on synchronization of China regional economic cycle. This paper is divided into the following five parts: the first part is introduction, mainly introduces the research background and significance, summarized the regional economic cycle, literature on synchronization and its influencing factors, and on this basis to determine the direction of research, the research ideas, research contents and research methods. The second part is the measurement and analysis of regional the economic cycle Chinese, mainly includes the regional economic cycle measurement methods, sample data, calculation and measurement index of China regional economic cycle Correlation analysis of fluctuations. The third part is the calculation and analysis of the regional economic cycle China degree of synchrony, first select the method to measure the regional economic cycle synchronization, according to the economic cycle variables have been obtained, calculate and analyze the area China between the whole region and the economic cycle synchronization. The fourth part is the empirical study used the method of regression analysis the impact on regional economic cycle Chinese synchronization factors, including determining factors, the regional economic cycle China synchronization of the impact indicators selection, the establishment of the empirical model, data processing and analysis of the estimation results. The fifth part is the conclusion and policy implications, including the main research conclusions, policy implications and prospects and shortcomings. According to the the estimation results of this paper summarized the conclusion of the study, and obtain the corresponding policy implications, and summed up the inadequacies of this study.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F124.8

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