發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-08 21:30

  本文選題：中國(guó)-東盟　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性　出處：《廣東外語(yǔ)外貿(mào)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái)，東亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化開(kāi)始加速推進(jìn)，中國(guó)和東盟關(guān)系得到迅速加強(qiáng)與拓展，經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系日益密切，經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)相互影響，相互傳導(dǎo)，經(jīng)濟(jì)周期呈現(xiàn)了同步性的特點(diǎn)。文章借鑒經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性研究的主流方法，探究中國(guó)與東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的同步性現(xiàn)象，并就貿(mào)易強(qiáng)度、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易、雙邊直接投資、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性的影響進(jìn)行了研究。 本文首先就國(guó)際貿(mào)易、雙邊直接投資、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性的一般傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制進(jìn)行分析，然后梳理了中國(guó)和東盟的合作歷程，接著利用1992-2011年的數(shù)據(jù)，測(cè)度并分析了中國(guó)與東盟在貿(mào)易、投資和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)上的聯(lián)系及動(dòng)態(tài)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)以及中國(guó)與東盟的合作存在的問(wèn)題，同時(shí)運(yùn)用HP濾波、皮爾遜相關(guān)系數(shù)以及格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)對(duì)中國(guó)與東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的同步性進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。接著運(yùn)用混合效應(yīng)，GMM-IV估計(jì)對(duì)中國(guó)與東盟五國(guó)面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，定量地分析了中國(guó)與東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步波動(dòng)的影響因素。 本文通過(guò)一系列的定性定量研究得到以下主要結(jié)論： (1)中國(guó)和東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系緊密，但是中國(guó)與東盟的合作也存在一定的障礙。中國(guó)和東盟都是貿(mào)易依存度比較高的國(guó)家，中國(guó)和東盟雙邊貿(mào)易在最近20年得到了高速的發(fā)展，中國(guó)和東盟的貿(mào)易是彼此貿(mào)易的重要組成部分，但是東盟國(guó)家對(duì)中國(guó)貿(mào)易的依賴程度遠(yuǎn)大于中國(guó)對(duì)東盟國(guó)家的貿(mào)易依賴。其次，在雙邊投資上，，自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)以來(lái)，中國(guó)與東盟之間的雙邊投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)合作都獲得快速發(fā)展。中國(guó)和東盟是彼此的外資主要來(lái)源國(guó)。再次，在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)上，中國(guó)和東盟具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性和互補(bǔ)性，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性更加顯著。同時(shí)中國(guó)與東盟的合作穩(wěn)定性受到東盟國(guó)家亞太戰(zhàn)略的影響，并且雙方之間的合作呈現(xiàn)不平衡，這在一定程度上阻礙了中國(guó)與東盟合作的深化。 （2）中國(guó)與東盟實(shí)際GDP及增長(zhǎng)率的周期波動(dòng)較為一致，中國(guó)和東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)周期存在同步性，并且這種同步性真正形成與20世紀(jì)90年代以后。此外，中國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)是東盟GDP增長(zhǎng)的原因，反之，不成立。說(shuō)明中國(guó)對(duì)東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用比較顯著。隨著中國(guó)改革開(kāi)放的深入，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)將會(huì)更大。 (3)在中國(guó)與東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性的影響因素當(dāng)中，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易強(qiáng)度、FDI和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)相似性都是中國(guó)與東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性的傳導(dǎo)渠道。貿(mào)易強(qiáng)度、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)差異性顯著增加了中國(guó)與東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的同步性，而雙邊FDI減弱了經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性，產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易的影響則不顯著。 基于上述的判斷與分析，本文認(rèn)為需要擴(kuò)大與東盟國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易的合作，加強(qiáng)與東盟經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的協(xié)調(diào)；其次，有選擇的利用外國(guó)直接投資，對(duì)資本的流入進(jìn)行有效的控制；再次，充分利用相互開(kāi)放市場(chǎng)的有利條件，深化行業(yè)合作，促進(jìn)行業(yè)對(duì)接，打造優(yōu)勢(shì)互補(bǔ)的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈，實(shí)現(xiàn)互利共贏。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the regional economic integration in East Asia has been accelerated, the relations between China and ASEAN have been strengthened and expanded rapidly, the economic ties have become closer and closer, and the economic fluctuations have influenced each other and conducted each other.The business cycle presents the characteristic of synchronism.Based on the mainstream research methods of business cycle synchronization, this paper explores the synchronism between China and ASEAN, and discusses the trade intensity, intra-industry trade and bilateral direct investment.The influence of industrial structure on the synchronism of economic cycle is studied.This paper first analyzes the general transmission mechanism of the synchronism of economic cycle on international trade, bilateral direct investment and industrial structure, then combs the course of cooperation between China and ASEAN, and then makes use of the data from 1992 to 2011.This paper measures and analyzes the relationship and dynamic development trend of trade, investment and industrial structure between China and ASEAN, and the problems existing in the cooperation between China and ASEAN. At the same time, HP filter is used.Pearson correlation coefficient and Granger causality test are used to verify the synchronism of economic cycle between China and ASEAN.Then the mixed effect GMM-IV estimation is used to empirically analyze the panel data of China and ASEAN, and the factors influencing the synchronous fluctuation of the economic cycle between China and ASEAN are analyzed quantitatively.Through a series of qualitative and quantitative studies, this paper draws the following main conclusions:China and ASEAN have close economic ties, but there are some obstacles to cooperation between China and ASEAN.Both China and ASEAN are highly dependent on trade. Bilateral trade between China and ASEAN has developed at a high speed in the last 20 years. Trade between China and ASEAN is an important part of each other's trade.But ASEAN countries depend more on Chinese trade than on ASEAN countries.Secondly, bilateral investment and economic and technological cooperation between China and ASEAN have developed rapidly since the construction of the FTA.China and ASEAN are each other's main source of foreign investment.Thirdly, in the industrial structure, China and ASEAN are competitive and complementary, and with the development of economy, the competitiveness is more obvious.At the same time, the stability of cooperation between China and ASEAN is influenced by the Asia-Pacific strategy of ASEAN countries, and the cooperation between China and ASEAN is unbalanced, which to some extent hinders the deepening of cooperation between China and ASEAN.(2) the cycle fluctuation of actual GDP and growth rate between China and ASEAN is consistent, and there is synchronism between China and ASEAN in economic cycle, and this synchronism is really formed after 1990s.In addition, China's GDP growth is the cause of ASEAN GDP growth, otherwise, not true.This shows that China's role in stimulating ASEAN's economy is quite significant.With the deepening of China's reform and opening-up, China's economy will contribute more to ASEAN's economy.3) among the influencing factors of synchronism between China and ASEAN, it can be found that the trade intensity and the similarity of industrial structure are the transmission channels of synchronism between China and ASEAN.The trade intensity and industrial structure difference significantly increase the synchronism of the economic cycle between China and ASEAN, while bilateral FDI weakens the synchronism of economic cycle, while the influence of intra-industry trade is not significant.Based on the above judgment and analysis, this paper argues that it is necessary to expand economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN countries and strengthen the coordination of economic policies with ASEAN. Secondly, it is necessary to use foreign direct investment selectively to effectively control the inflow of capital.Thirdly, we should make full use of the favorable conditions of open market, deepen industry cooperation, promote industry docking, build industry chain with complementary advantages, and realize mutual benefit and win-win situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語(yǔ)外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124.8;F113.7

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