本文選題：消費(fèi)　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　出處：《青島大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：長期以來,投資、消費(fèi)、出口被認(rèn)為是拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的三駕馬車。審視改革開放三十年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的步伐,伴隨高投資與出口導(dǎo)向型的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)獲得了飛速的發(fā)展,然而這一發(fā)展模式卻引致消費(fèi)在我國三駕馬車中的長期次要地位。而至目前這一發(fā)展模式逐漸顯現(xiàn)困境。以此為契機(jī),探尋提高我國消費(fèi)需求,是破解這一困境的關(guān)鍵之所在。 首先,闡述了我國目前消費(fèi)不足的現(xiàn)狀。爾后,對(duì)消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長進(jìn)行關(guān)聯(lián)性分析,進(jìn)而以格蘭杰方法檢驗(yàn)了消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的因果關(guān)系。結(jié)果顯示,我國目前存在消費(fèi)需求不足的現(xiàn)狀,消費(fèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率和拉動(dòng)率不高,且消費(fèi)不是GDP的格蘭杰原因,從而印證了我國目前消費(fèi)不足的現(xiàn)狀。在此基礎(chǔ)上,通過定性與定量相結(jié)合的方式深刻剖析了影響消費(fèi)的主要因素。 此外,研究表明,居民當(dāng)前收入及其滯后期收入、預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄、基尼系數(shù)對(duì)我國居民消費(fèi)水平有著顯著的正向促進(jìn)效應(yīng),三者的影響大小也呈現(xiàn)逐漸遞減的關(guān)系。值得注意的是,雖然本研究得出了基尼系數(shù)對(duì)消費(fèi)具有正向影響的這一有悖于經(jīng)典理論的實(shí)證結(jié)論,但給出了基于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)踐的合理解釋,然而從長期來看,隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展、居民收入水平的提高、社會(huì)保障體系的逐步完善,二者的關(guān)系將逐步回歸至經(jīng)典理論的范疇。當(dāng)然,這同樣會(huì)伴隨著預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄對(duì)消費(fèi)影響的下降。由此可見,未來我國應(yīng)該在提高居民收入水平的基礎(chǔ)上,著力推進(jìn)社會(huì)保障體系建設(shè),以此來提高居民消費(fèi)水平
[Abstract]:For a long time, investment, consumption and export have been regarded as the troika of economic growth. To examine the pace of China's economic development during the past 30 years of reform and opening up, accompanied by a strategy of high investment and export-oriented economic development, China's economy has achieved rapid development, but this pattern of development has led to the long-term secondary position of consumption in the troika of our country. Is the key to solving this dilemma. First of all, the paper expounds the current situation of insufficient consumption in China. After that, it analyzes the relationship between consumption and economic growth, and then tests the causality between consumption and economic growth by Granger method. The results show that, There is insufficient consumption demand in our country at present, the contribution rate and pull rate of consumption to economic growth are not high, and consumption is not the Granger reason of GDP, which confirms the current situation of insufficient consumption in our country. Through the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis of the main factors affecting consumption. In addition, the study shows that residents' current income and their delayed income, precautionary savings and Gini coefficient have a significant positive effect on the consumption level of Chinese residents. It is worth noting that although the Gini coefficient has a positive effect on consumption, it is contrary to the classical theory that the Gini coefficient has a positive effect on consumption. But it gives a reasonable explanation based on China's economic practice. However, in the long run, with the development of China's economy, the improvement of residents' income level, and the gradual improvement of social security system, The relationship between the two will gradually return to the realm of classical theory. Of course, this will also be accompanied by a decline in the impact of precautionary savings on consumption. Promoting the Construction of Social Security system to improve the consumption level of residents
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124.1;F126

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馬愛玲;;消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的理論研究綜述[J];北方經(jīng)濟(jì);2008年10期

2 朱麟飛;;西方消費(fèi)社會(huì)理論研究的發(fā)展及其借鑒意義[J];長春理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2009年01期

3 張文軍;;改革以來我國物價(jià)波動(dòng)與居民消費(fèi)波動(dòng)實(shí)證研究[J];赤峰學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2011年09期

4 周建;經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期中國農(nóng)村居民預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄研究——1978~2003年實(shí)證研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2005年08期

5 徐海云;;不同層次貨幣供給與消費(fèi)波動(dòng)的關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)比較——來自我國頻域的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)[J];財(cái)經(jīng)理論與實(shí)踐;2012年01期

6 龐宇杰;;城鄉(xiāng)收入差距對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響——基于消費(fèi)需求與物質(zhì)資本視角的實(shí)證分析[J];重慶交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2013年03期

7 蔣靜婷;;人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響機(jī)制分析[J];當(dāng)代港澳研究;2012年04期

8 黃海燕;;逐步確立以消費(fèi)為主導(dǎo)的綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式[J];宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2006年04期

9 陳燕武,吳承業(yè);福建省消費(fèi)率問題研究[J];華僑大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2005年02期

10 許永兵;;消費(fèi)需求影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的實(shí)證研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理;2006年05期

，

本文編號(hào)：1677485