本文選題：消費效應(yīng)　切入點：投資效應(yīng)　出處：《中國青年政治學(xué)院》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與宏觀經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)相互作用,關(guān)系錯綜復(fù)雜,這就使得調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)市場變?yōu)橐豁検謴?fù)雜的系統(tǒng)工程。所以,如何厘清房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與宏觀經(jīng)濟之間的關(guān)系,促進房地產(chǎn)市場與國民經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,是一項意義重大的研究課題。本文采用多種研究方法,包括定量分析與定性分析相結(jié)合、數(shù)據(jù)與經(jīng)驗證據(jù)相結(jié)合、邏輯推理與實證研究相結(jié)合等,對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與宏觀經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)之間的關(guān)系問題進行了研究。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容可總結(jié)為以下幾點:首先對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與宏觀經(jīng)濟互動的機理,特別是房地產(chǎn)市場波動對經(jīng)濟的影響效應(yīng)進行了梳理;然后重點分析了房價波動對消費和投資影響效應(yīng)的傳導(dǎo)機制;其次通過采用國際對比的方式綜合分析房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng);最后通過對北京地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場與宏觀經(jīng)濟的實際運行進行實證分析得出主要結(jié)論。通過一系列分析本文得出的結(jié)論主要有:目前我國房地產(chǎn)市場還處于初級發(fā)展階段,存在部分區(qū)域發(fā)展不平衡的情況,局部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)有發(fā)展過熱傾向;由于房價上漲引起的房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)增加對居民消費的擠出效應(yīng)遠大于財富效應(yīng);房價波動對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資和存貨投資的長期影響均很顯著,且均表現(xiàn)為正向效應(yīng),短期影響則不顯著;和其他國家房地產(chǎn)業(yè)相比,雖然我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)有較強的總體帶動效應(yīng),但在所帶動的產(chǎn)業(yè)中仍以物質(zhì)型和傳統(tǒng)型的產(chǎn)業(yè)為主。基于文章的有關(guān)結(jié)論,本文給出了一些政策建議:一是從長期來看,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)不能構(gòu)成經(jīng)濟持續(xù)健康增長的原因,因此,我們在重視發(fā)展房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的同時,卻不能過分依賴房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的發(fā)展。二是推動以銀行為主導(dǎo)的融資體系逐步向多渠道的融資體系轉(zhuǎn)變,建立多層次的資本市場體系,有效降低房地產(chǎn)市場波動的風(fēng)險效應(yīng)。三是完善房地產(chǎn)市場宏觀調(diào)控體系,在制定調(diào)控政策時,應(yīng)考慮到在政策傳導(dǎo)機制中房地產(chǎn)市場本身的作用,調(diào)控政策的執(zhí)行不能只考慮短期環(huán)境,更應(yīng)該考慮其長遠影響。
[Abstract]:The interaction between real estate industry and macroeconomic system is complicated, which makes the regulation and control of real estate market become a very complicated system engineering. So, how to clarify the relationship between real estate industry and macro economy, It is of great significance to promote the harmonious development of real estate market and national economy. This paper adopts a variety of research methods, including quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, data and empirical evidence. The relationship between real estate industry and macroeconomic system is studied by combining logical reasoning and empirical research. The main research contents of this paper can be summarized as follows: firstly, the mechanism of interaction between real estate industry and macro economy is discussed. In particular, the impact of real estate market fluctuations on the economy is sorted out, and then the transmission mechanism of the effects of house price fluctuations on consumption and investment is analyzed. Secondly, the paper analyzes the industrial correlation effect of real estate industry by international comparison. Finally, through the empirical analysis of the real estate market and macroeconomic operation in Beijing, the main conclusions are drawn. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: at present, the real estate market in China is still in the primary stage of development. In some regions, the real estate industry has the tendency of overheating, the effect of the increase of real estate assets caused by the rise of house prices on the consumption of residents is far greater than the effect of wealth. The long-term effects of house price fluctuations on real estate development investment and inventory investment are significant, and they all show positive effects, but the short-term effects are not significant. Although China's real estate industry has a strong overall driving effect on other industries, it is still dominated by material and traditional industries in the driven industries. This paper gives some policy suggestions: first, in the long run, the real estate industry can not constitute the cause of sustained and healthy economic growth. Therefore, we attach importance to the development of the real estate industry at the same time. But we should not rely too much on the development of the real estate industry. Second, we should gradually transform the bank-led financing system into a multi-channel financing system and establish a multi-level capital market system. Effectively reduce the risk effect of real estate market fluctuations. Third, improve the real estate market macro-control system, when formulating regulatory policies, we should take into account the role of the real estate market itself in the policy transmission mechanism. The implementation of regulatory policies should not only consider the short-term environment, but also its long-term impact.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國青年政治學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F124

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本文編號：1665411