本文選題：人民幣匯率　切入點：FDI　出處：《商業(yè)研究》2017年06期

【摘要】：近年來,人民幣匯率變動對外商直接投資(FDI)流入和我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響日趨顯著。本文運(yùn)用馬爾科夫區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)移向量自回歸(MS-VAR)模型,實證分析2004-2016年人民幣匯率變動通過FDI路徑對中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的非線性影響效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果表明:人民幣匯率變動對中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響依賴經(jīng)濟(jì)周期具體階段而呈現(xiàn)出兩區(qū)制特征,其中區(qū)制1、區(qū)制2分別代表經(jīng)濟(jì)狀態(tài)波動平緩區(qū)制和經(jīng)濟(jì)狀態(tài)波動劇烈區(qū)制,并且不同區(qū)制下變量間具有不同的動態(tài)關(guān)系。脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)的結(jié)果顯示,區(qū)制1中人民幣升值促進(jìn)了FDI流入,推動了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級,區(qū)制2中則相反,并且兩區(qū)制下FDI流入對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整均發(fā)揮了積極作用,但區(qū)制2中的響應(yīng)程度明顯大于區(qū)制1。因此,保持人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩(wěn)定,避免人民幣匯率波動幅度過大,增加FDI流入,有助于推動我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the effect of RMB exchange rate change on FDI inflow and industrial structure adjustment in China has become more and more significant. In this paper, the Markov region system transfer vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model is used. This paper empirically analyzes the nonlinear effect of RMB exchange rate change on China's industrial structure adjustment through FDI path from 2004 to 2016. The results show that the impact of RMB exchange rate change on China's industrial structure depends on the specific stage of the economic cycle. And presents a two-zone system. The region system 1 and region 2 represent the economic state fluctuation region system and the economic state fluctuation area system respectively, and there are different dynamic relations between the variables under the different region system. The result of pulse response function shows that, The appreciation of RMB in region 1 promotes the inflow of FDI and promotes the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, whereas in region 2, the inflow of FDI plays a positive role in the adjustment of industrial structure. However, the response degree in region 2 is obviously greater than that in regional system 1.Therefore, keeping the RMB exchange rate basically stable at the reasonable equilibrium level, avoiding the excessive fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and increasing the inflow of FDI, It helps to promote the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure.
【作者單位】： 河海大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部重點支持領(lǐng)域科研專項資助項目“江蘇省科技進(jìn)步與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級相互作用關(guān)系研究”,項目編號:20116B31914
【分類號】：F121.3;F832.6

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