本文選題：國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值　切入點(diǎn)：線性回歸　出處：《曲阜師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自2007年以來(lái)，由美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)引起的全球金融危機(jī)的不斷蔓延和深化，致使世界經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)出明顯的下滑趨勢(shì)，對(duì)中國(guó)進(jìn)出口問(wèn)題的影響也日益明顯。發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易中存在的問(wèn)題，并根據(jù)這些問(wèn)題，提出相對(duì)應(yīng)的政策措施是一個(gè)值得研究的課題。 本文利用SPSS19.0軟件對(duì)中國(guó)1990-2011年的進(jìn)口、出口、凈出口額和國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）做了一元線性回歸分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值與進(jìn)口、出口額，即進(jìn)出口總額之間的相關(guān)性較強(qiáng)；然后又用到計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的方法，利用eviews6.0軟件對(duì)GDP與進(jìn)出口總額兩時(shí)間序列做單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、Granger因果檢驗(yàn)及脈沖函數(shù)分析、方差分解分析，得到結(jié)論：進(jìn)出口總額是GDP的Granger原因，而GDP不是進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的Granger原因；接著又利用SPSS19.0統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件作圖功能對(duì)我國(guó)2011及2010年的對(duì)外貿(mào)易商品分類金額做了簡(jiǎn)單箱圖和堆棧面積圖，，比較直觀的分析了我國(guó)當(dāng)前的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。最后對(duì)發(fā)展我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提出建議及對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:Since 2007, the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has spread and deepened, resulting in a marked downward trend in the world economy. The influence on China's import and export problems is becoming more and more obvious. It is worth studying to find out the problems existing in China's import and export trade and to put forward corresponding policies and measures according to these problems. This paper makes a linear regression analysis of China's imports, exports, net exports and gross domestic product (GDP) from 1990 to 2011 by using SPSS19.0 software. It is found that there is a strong correlation between GDP and imports and exports, that is, the total volume of imports and exports. Then the econometric method is used to do unit root test, cointegration test, pulse function analysis and variance decomposition analysis for GDP and total import and export time series by using eviews6.0 software. It is concluded that the total amount of import and export is the Granger cause of GDP, but GDP is not the Granger cause of import and export trade, and then the simple box diagram and stack area diagram of the amount of foreign trade commodity classification amount of China in 2011 and 2010 are made by using the function of SPSS19.0 statistical software. This paper analyzes the current industrial structure of our country intuitively, and finally puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures for the development of China's import and export trade and economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：曲阜師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752.6;F124.1

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