本文選題：財政政策　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文從理論推導(dǎo)和實(shí)證研究兩種角度就財政政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用機(jī)制進(jìn)行了闡述和分析。在理論方面主要引用了瓦格納法則、凱恩斯學(xué)派經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論與財政政策、內(nèi)生增長理論中的財政政策和外生增長理論中的財政政策，對財政政策與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長相互作用關(guān)系進(jìn)行了偏重定性的推導(dǎo)。繼而又借助VAR模型和MS-AR模型，對GDP、財政支出、CPI和M2從1996年第一季度到2013年第四季度的季度同比增長率數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。首先，對GDP和財政支出的增長進(jìn)行了數(shù)據(jù)描述并分析了其發(fā)展規(guī)律和發(fā)展趨勢。然后，驗(yàn)證了所選擇的變量是否具備構(gòu)建VAR模型的條件，在符合構(gòu)可能性后，，通過建立VAR模型進(jìn)行了脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析、方差分解研究和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)以剖析變量之間的相互作用關(guān)系，重點(diǎn)考察了財政支出對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用機(jī)制。而后，根據(jù)MS-AR模型劃分出了高波動區(qū)制和低波動區(qū)制，探討了不同區(qū)制下財政政策的有效性。最后在兩區(qū)制下分別進(jìn)行最小二乘回歸來觀測財政支出對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響系數(shù)，并結(jié)合我國實(shí)際情況探討了財政政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用機(jī)制。 從中得出“瓦格納法則”在我國的是成立的，即當(dāng)國民收入增長時，財政支出也會隨之增長；短期內(nèi)，積極的財政政策可以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；而長期的積極財政政策刺激效果不明顯，還會導(dǎo)致一定程度上的通貨膨脹；在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長波動率較高的階段適合使用積極的財政政策，但要注意不宜長期使用，在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長波動率較低的階段應(yīng)使用穩(wěn)健性財政政策等結(jié)論。 建議在財政政策實(shí)施過程中要保持政府支出與國民生產(chǎn)總值在一定的比例上，掌握好擴(kuò)張性和穩(wěn)健性財政政策之間轉(zhuǎn)化的時機(jī)，必要時相配合以貨幣政策來熨平財政政策的負(fù)面效應(yīng)。同時應(yīng)該注意財政收支的多寡并不能完整的代表財政政策，要對財政政策進(jìn)行全方位多角度的剖析，預(yù)算外和體制外收支最好也能被納入考慮范疇。還可以輔助以減輕稅負(fù)、加強(qiáng)推動稅制的改革的力度、調(diào)整轉(zhuǎn)移支付方向、改善政府財政支出結(jié)構(gòu)、提高中低收入消費(fèi)者的可支配收入等手段來完善我國財政政策體系，保持我國經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長。
[Abstract]:This paper expounds and analyzes the mechanism of fiscal policy acting on economic growth from two angles of theoretical derivation and empirical research. In theory, it mainly cites Wagner's law, Keynesian economic growth theory and fiscal policy. The fiscal policy in the endogenous growth theory and the fiscal policy in the exogenous growth theory deduce the relationship between the fiscal policy and the economic growth, and then with the help of the VAR model and the MS-AR model, the relationship between the fiscal policy and the economic growth is analyzed. This paper makes an empirical study on the quarterly year-on-year growth rate of GDP, fiscal expenditure CPI and M2 from in the first quarter of 1996 to in the fourth quarter of 2013. First of all, This paper describes the growth of GDP and fiscal expenditure and analyzes its development law and trend. Then, it verifies whether the selected variables have the conditions to construct the VAR model, and after the possibility of conformance, By establishing the VAR model, the impulse response function analysis, variance decomposition and Granger causality test are carried out to analyze the interaction between variables, and the mechanism of fiscal expenditure on economic growth is investigated. According to the MS-AR model, the high volatility zone system and the low fluctuation zone system are divided, and the effectiveness of the fiscal policy under the different region system is discussed. Finally, the least square regression is carried out to observe the influence coefficient of the fiscal expenditure on the economic growth under the two-region system. Combined with the actual situation in China, this paper discusses the mechanism of fiscal policy on economic growth. It is concluded that "Wagner's rule" is established in our country, that is, when national income increases, fiscal expenditure will also increase, in the short term, positive fiscal policies can promote economic growth. But the long-term positive fiscal policy stimulus effect is not obvious, will also cause the certain degree of inflation; in our country economic growth fluctuation rate high stage suitable to use the positive fiscal policy, but should pay attention not to use in the long term. In the stage of low fluctuation rate of economic growth, we should use prudent fiscal policy and other conclusions. It is suggested that in the process of implementing the fiscal policy, we should maintain a certain proportion of government expenditure and gross national product, and grasp the opportunity to transform between expansionary and prudent fiscal policies. When necessary, we should coordinate with monetary policy to iron out the negative effects of fiscal policy. At the same time, we should pay attention to the amount of fiscal revenues and expenditures that do not fully represent fiscal policy. We should carry out a comprehensive and multi-angle analysis of fiscal policy. Extra-budgetary and out-of-system revenues and expenditures are also best taken into account. They can also be supplemented to reduce the tax burden, strengthen the reform of the tax system, adjust the direction of transfer payments, and improve the structure of the government's fiscal expenditure. Improve the disposable income of middle and low income consumers to improve our fiscal policy system and maintain the steady growth of our economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F812;F124

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