發(fā)布時間：2018-03-09 13:40

  本文選題：城鎮(zhèn)化　切入點：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《重慶工商大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的形勢下，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展將更多地依靠內(nèi)需，而城鎮(zhèn)化正是我國擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的巨大潛力所在。城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展離不開產(chǎn)業(yè)的支撐，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)也影響著城鎮(zhèn)化的速度與質(zhì)量。當(dāng)前我國城鎮(zhèn)化處于加速發(fā)展階段，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)也正經(jīng)歷重大變革，在此背景下研究產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷對城鎮(zhèn)化的影響具有重要意義。本文試圖探究產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化與高度化對城鎮(zhèn)化的影響，以促進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化的健康發(fā)展。 首先，在梳理國內(nèi)外城鎮(zhèn)化相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上，從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化兩個角度出發(fā)，構(gòu)建了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷對城鎮(zhèn)化影響的理論框架。 然后，基于2000-2012年省級面板數(shù)據(jù)，對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化、高度化對城鎮(zhèn)化影響進(jìn)行了實證分析；為了進(jìn)一步分析城鎮(zhèn)化不同發(fā)展階段中，合理化與高度化對城鎮(zhèn)化影響的變化情況，，采用了面板分位數(shù)回歸模型進(jìn)行分析。實證主要得到以下幾點結(jié)論： （1）產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化指數(shù)與城鎮(zhèn)化率呈顯著負(fù)相關(guān)，表明產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的合理化對城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展起促進(jìn)作用。但是隨著城鎮(zhèn)化率的提高，這種促進(jìn)作用整體上呈下降狀態(tài)。 （2）產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化指數(shù)，當(dāng)采用非農(nóng)產(chǎn)值比重表示時，對城鎮(zhèn)化率起正向影響；當(dāng)采用經(jīng)濟(jì)服務(wù)化程度指標(biāo)時，對城鎮(zhèn)化率起負(fù)面影響。表明非農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展有助于推進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)化，而現(xiàn)階段仍是第二產(chǎn)業(yè)對城鎮(zhèn)化起主導(dǎo)作用，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的巨大潛力尚未完全發(fā)揮。在城鎮(zhèn)化率不斷提高的過程中，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化的貢獻(xiàn)率呈現(xiàn)先下降、回升、再下降、再上升的過程，近似呈現(xiàn)“W”型的態(tài)勢。 （3）控制變量中人均實際GDP、外商直接投資對城鎮(zhèn)化率呈現(xiàn)正相關(guān)，表明隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的提高、地區(qū)開放程度的增加，地區(qū)城鎮(zhèn)化率越高；而政府財政支出對城鎮(zhèn)化率的影響系數(shù)較小，且未能通過顯著性檢驗。隨著城鎮(zhèn)化率的提高，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的正向促進(jìn)作用進(jìn)不斷增強(qiáng)，而外商直接投資的正向促進(jìn)作用呈下降趨勢。 最后，基于實證結(jié)論，并結(jié)合實際，對我國城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)提出了部分對策建議。
[Abstract]:Under the situation of global economic slowdown, China's economic development will depend more on domestic demand, and urbanization is the great potential of expanding domestic demand in China. Urbanization cannot develop without the support of industry. The industrial structure also affects the speed and quality of urbanization. At present, China's urbanization is in an accelerated stage of development, and the industrial structure is also undergoing major changes. In this context, it is of great significance to study the impact of industrial structure changes on urbanization. This paper attempts to explore the impact of rationalization and elevation of industrial structure on urbanization in order to promote the healthy development of urbanization. First of all, on the basis of combing the related theories of urbanization at home and abroad, this paper constructs the theoretical framework of the influence of industrial structure change on urbanization from the two angles of industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure elevation. Then, based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the rationalization of industrial structure and the impact of high level urbanization on urbanization; in order to further analyze the different stages of urbanization, The effect of rationalization and elevation on urbanization is analyzed by panel quantile regression model. The empirical results are as follows:. 1) there is a significant negative correlation between the rationalization index of industrial structure and the urbanization rate, which indicates that the rationalization of industrial structure promotes the development of urbanization, but with the increase of urbanization rate, the promoting effect is in a state of decline as a whole. (2) the high index of industrial structure has a positive effect on the urbanization rate when it is expressed by the proportion of non-agricultural output value, and when the index of economic service degree is adopted, It has a negative impact on the urbanization rate. It shows that the development of non-agricultural industries is conducive to promoting urbanization, while at this stage it is the secondary industry that still plays a leading role in urbanization. The great potential of the tertiary industry has not been fully realized. In the process of increasing the urbanization rate, the contribution rate of the industrial structure to high level first decreases, rebounds, then declines, then rises, and then rises, approximately showing a "W" pattern. 3) the actual GDP per capita and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the control variables are positively correlated with the urbanization rate, indicating that with the increase of economic development and the increase of regional opening degree, the higher the regional urbanization rate is; However, the influence coefficient of government expenditure on urbanization rate is small, and it fails to pass the significance test. With the increase of urbanization rate, the positive promoting effect of economic development level is increasing. The positive promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI) shows a downward trend. Finally, based on the empirical conclusions and combined with the actual situation, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for China's urbanization construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124;F299.21

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