本文選題：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素　切入點(diǎn)：企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來,隨著國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)展和日益頻繁密切的國(guó)際交往,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速騰飛,各行業(yè)都較之前發(fā)生了翻天覆地的變化。隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)步入新的發(fā)展階段,經(jīng)濟(jì)增速轉(zhuǎn)為中高速增長(zhǎng)的“新常態(tài)”;同時(shí)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)受國(guó)際范圍內(nèi)不確定因素和金融危機(jī)影響,各行業(yè)也呈現(xiàn)出一系列問題,周期性行業(yè)普遍面臨改革和兼并重組。周期性公司作為近年并購(gòu)交易的主要組成部分,其與經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境相關(guān)的周期性特征和估值定價(jià)的合理性都成為學(xué)術(shù)研究、評(píng)估實(shí)務(wù)和政府部門關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)。企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估中收益法作為應(yīng)用廣泛、較為科學(xué)的方法之一,其參數(shù)收益額的測(cè)度顯得尤為重要,國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者和業(yè)界人士也都對(duì)其較為關(guān)注。但研究多集中在某一公司,且沒有得到統(tǒng)一的結(jié)論。為探討周期性公司收益額指標(biāo)影響因素,本文結(jié)合文獻(xiàn)研究和實(shí)證研究方法,涉及資產(chǎn)評(píng)估、金融學(xué)、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)等專業(yè),建立模型測(cè)度周期性公司收益額及增長(zhǎng)率的影響因素,得出相關(guān)結(jié)論和建議,以期為未來周期性公司收益法估值提供一些參考。在實(shí)證研究中,本文以2006年至2016年數(shù)據(jù)為樣本周期,在證監(jiān)會(huì)行業(yè)分類下選取我國(guó)滬深股票市場(chǎng)中鋼鐵、有色金屬、煤炭、石油化工、房地產(chǎn)和銀行這6個(gè)具有代表性的周期性行業(yè)作為樣本;選取行業(yè)中典型的公司收益額及收益額增長(zhǎng)率作為研究對(duì)象,口徑選取股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流量;同時(shí)根據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究結(jié)論和理論分析選取國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)、長(zhǎng)短期利差、廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量和美元兌人民幣匯率這5個(gè)涵蓋經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、物價(jià)水平和金融外貿(mào)等方面的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素作為解釋變量;在研究方法上,利用單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和面板數(shù)據(jù)混合回歸模型及多元線性回歸模型等統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)方法,檢驗(yàn)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對(duì)不同行業(yè)上市公司收益額及增長(zhǎng)率的影響,對(duì)比不同度量時(shí)限和行業(yè)實(shí)證研究結(jié)果,歸納得出結(jié)論與應(yīng)用建議。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)我國(guó)滬深股票市場(chǎng)上周期性公司收益額及收益額增長(zhǎng)率數(shù)據(jù)較為離散,波動(dòng)較大,極端值較多;(2)上述宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對(duì)6個(gè)樣本行業(yè)收益額有較強(qiáng)的解釋能力,但對(duì)周期性公司收益額增長(zhǎng)率解釋能力一般;(3)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的解釋效果因不同行業(yè)或公司而異,因不同度量時(shí)限而異。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of China and the increasingly frequent and close international contacts, China's economy has taken off rapidly, and all industries have undergone earth-shaking changes. As China's economy enters a new stage of development, Economic growth has turned into a "new normal" of medium and high growth. At the same time, China's economy is affected by uncertainties in the international arena and the financial crisis, and a series of problems have emerged in various industries. As the main component of M & A transactions in recent years, the cyclical characteristics related to the economic environment and the rationality of valuation pricing have become academic research. As one of the most widely used and scientific methods in the evaluation of enterprise value, it is very important to measure the value of its parameters. Scholars at home and abroad and people in the industry also pay more attention to it. However, most of the studies are focused on one company, and there is no uniform conclusion. In order to explore the influencing factors of the return index of periodic companies, this paper combines the literature research and empirical research methods. Related to asset assessment, finance, macroeconomics, statistics and other majors, the establishment of models to measure cyclical company earnings and growth factors, draw relevant conclusions and recommendations, In the empirical study, this paper takes the data from 2006 to 2016 as the sample cycle, and selects steel, non-ferrous metals and coal in the stock market of Shanghai and Shenzhen under the industry classification of CSRC. Six typical cyclical industries such as petrochemical industry, real estate industry and banking industry are selected as samples, the typical corporate income and income growth rate are selected as the research object, and the free cash flow of equity is chosen. At the same time, according to the conclusions of empirical research and theoretical analysis, we select GDP, consumer price index, short- and long-term interest rate difference, broad money supply and the exchange rate of USD / RMB to cover economic growth. Macroeconomic factors, such as price level and financial and foreign trade, are taken as explanatory variables; in research methods, unit root test and cointegration test are used. Descriptive statistical analysis, panel data mixed regression model and multivariate linear regression model are used to test the effect of macroeconomic factors on earnings and growth rate of listed companies in different industries. By comparing the results of empirical research on different measurement periods and industries, the conclusions and application suggestions are concluded. The results show that the data of earnings and earnings growth rate of periodic companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are discrete and fluctuate. (2) the above macroeconomic factors have a strong explanatory power to the earnings of the six sample industries, but the explanatory ability to explain the growth rate of the earnings of cyclical companies generally varies with different industries or companies. It varies according to the time frame of measurement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F275

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 邊靜慧;;無形資產(chǎn)評(píng)估收益額的界定與預(yù)測(cè)[J];內(nèi)蒙古財(cái)經(jīng)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2007年06期

2 周海珍;預(yù)期收益額的選擇和確定[J];中國(guó)資產(chǎn)評(píng)估;2002年06期

3 王晶;高建設(shè);寧宣熙;;嵌入知識(shí)的綜合集成預(yù)測(cè)方法及其在企業(yè)收益額預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用[J];北京理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2009年02期

4 ;數(shù)讀企業(yè)[J];紡織服裝周刊;2013年08期

5 楊亞西;楊波;;無形資產(chǎn)收益額確定的倒擠法[J];財(cái)會(huì)月刊;2008年21期

6 劉剛;用保本收益額衡量股份制企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益[J];經(jīng)營(yíng)管理者;1995年08期

7 劉剛;;淺議使用保本收益額衡量股份制企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益[J];基建管理優(yōu)化;1995年03期

8 雷蕾;;資產(chǎn)評(píng)估收益法中的收益額的指標(biāo)選擇[J];科技致富向?qū)?2010年24期

9 謝榮軍;;技術(shù)收益評(píng)估方法分析[J];合作經(jīng)濟(jì)與科技;2013年23期

10 張淑艷;現(xiàn)代企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)管理目標(biāo)選擇[J];四川會(huì)計(jì);1997年11期

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前3條

1 江蘇省南通市紀(jì)委案件審理室、南通市紀(jì)委駐市檢察院紀(jì)檢組;對(duì)以借款形式收取高額“利息回報(bào)”行為如何認(rèn)定?[N];中國(guó)紀(jì)檢監(jiān)察報(bào);2011年

2 記者 熊海鷗;物美三季度單店銷售增7.2%[N];北京商報(bào);2009年

3 鄭曉波;切實(shí)推動(dòng)國(guó)有股權(quán)劃撥社保基金[N];證券時(shí)報(bào);2007年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 龐然;上市公司重大并購(gòu)重組收益額預(yù)測(cè)實(shí)證研究[D];首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2016年

2 馬軼芳;宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對(duì)周期性公司估值收益額影響的測(cè)度研究[D];首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2017年

，

本文編號(hào)：1577943